5 key storylines for World Series Game 4

November 2nd, 2022

Well! That would be accurately classified as “a statement.” After a weather postponement delayed the first World Series game in Philadelphia in 13 years by 24 hours, the Phillies (and, without question, their fans) let loose more than a decade of anticipation by pouncing on the Astros early and often Tuesday night in a 7-0 Game 3 win.

The Phillies now have a 2-1 lead in the Fall Classic, which should look familiar to Astros fans: This is their third straight World Series when they’ve been down 2-1 after Game 3. Though, uh, they lost the last two (2021 and '19).

Here's a look at the five biggest storylines heading into Wednesday's Game 4 at Citizens Bank Park:

1. Can the Astros keep the Phillies in the park?
In Game 3, the Phillies hit three homers in the first two innings and five total. That is no joke. The barrage of homers that they launched deep into the Philadelphia night provided all sorts of visuals that tend to stick in the memory. (And this visual has been recurring all postseason at Citizens Bank Park, where the Phils are now 6-0 with 17 round-trippers.)

The Phillies are not a perfect team, but when they’re hitting homers like that, they sort of look like one. Teams always want to set the tone at the start of a series or a homestand. Well … consider the tone set. Cristian Javier is an excellent pitcher, but he’s also been somewhat homer-prone in his career, allowing 1.35 homers per nine innings over the past three seasons, which ranks 20th among 76 pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time. (Not to mention 1.69 homers per nine innings over 13 appearances in his postseason career.) Do you think he’s eager to go out and face that?

2. Is Aaron Nola going to be better?
One of the Phillies' primary strategies to win this Series heading in -- other than “hitting five homers every game” -- was trying to win the four starts from Nola and Zack Wheeler, or at least winning three of them and stealing one of the other games. They’re 1-1 in those games; consider the explosion in Game 3 the “stealing” of one. But that plan does require Nola and Wheeler to be the aces they were expected to be, and the aces they’ve been most of this postseason.

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The Phillies’ bullpen was so good in Game 1 -- and manager Rob Thomson’s deployment of it so successful -- that you could almost forget that Nola gave up five runs in 4 1/3 innings, including two homers. He was the reason the Phils had to come back from being down 5-0, after all. The rainout on Monday gave Philadelphia an advantage that it very much utilized on Tuesday. But part of that advantage, too, was Nola getting to start Game 4 on full rest. It’s on him not to give that advantage right back.

3. Can the Astros’ big boppers do what the Phillies’ big boppers just did?
The Phillies bombarded the Astros in Game 3 mostly via the usual suspects: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins. But Houston has some stars too, you know. They’ve been a lot quieter, though. Kyle Tucker was 3-for-5 with two homers and 4 RBIs in Game 1. But putting that performance aside, how are Tucker, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman doing? They’re 7-for-42 with just one homer, including going 0-for-15 in Game 3. The Astros don’t have the deepest lineup, and it’s difficult to see how they get back in this World Series if their stars don’t get going. Unlike the Phils, these guys have all been here before. It’s probably time to start hitting like it.

4. Will Dusty Baker be a little more aggressive this game?
Speaking of “setting tones,” Thomson set a clear one with his “floor it” strategy in Game 1, using his best relievers from the get-go and deploying them in the most important moments. He managed like a guy who absolutely could not lose Game 1, and because of that, he didn’t. Baker was not so urgent in Game 3 (nor was he especially urgent with his bullpen in the first two games).

You can see why he was trying to get as much as he could out of starter Lance McCullers Jr. on Tuesday, as he was hoping to save his best relievers for games on the next two nights, when he might have a higher probability of winning. But the result was McCullers giving the Phillies a massive lead and not throwing very many innings (4 1/3). How is this for urgency? If the Astros lose Wednesday, they’re going to be facing elimination the next night, in front of that same Philly crowd. That’s pretty urgent! Javier is a good pitcher who was terrific over 5 1/3 scoreless innings in Game 3 in the American League Championship Series against the Yankees. But the Astros can’t let this game, or really any other game, get away from them like Game 3 did.

5. Is Citizens Bank Park still going to be standing?
You’ve all seen this 100 times by now, but let’s all watch it again anyway:

That’s obviously an incredible shot of an already-iconic Harper homer. But what it also is -- what it really is -- is a city-wide paroxysm of unbridled emotion. Certain stadiums and certain fan bases, when they really get going, can carry teams. You saw this in Atlanta last year, Boston in 2013, St. Louis in '11 … heck, Philly in '09. The eruption you saw in Philadelphia in those early innings on Tuesday night created a momentum that has its own sort of mad, self-sustaining energy. The next two nights could be immortal in Philly. It’s on Houston to slow it down. The Astros best do so immediately … or that energy will swallow them whole.