Inbox: Will Dobnak break camp with Twins?

March 23rd, 2021

There's only one week to go in Spring Training, and as expected, many of the questions from Twins fans for the final Inbox of camp centered around the two major unknowns on the roster: left field and the final bullpen spot. Minnesota is running out of time to make its final decisions, so let's jump right into your questions.

Before Spring Training, the rotation seemed to be locked in, but Randy Dobnak has pitched so well it could be argued he has kept himself in contention. Is it more likely that he’ll be sent to the Minors or kept on the roster?
-- Nerrida P.

Dobnak has indeed had a fantastic Spring Training, with work to add horizontal break to his slider paying off in the form of 13 strikeouts in 8 2/3 innings across three spring outings. Still, there isn't exactly room to fit him into the starting rotation, since the Twins have a full starting five of healthy veterans in Kenta Maeda, José Berríos, Michael Pineda, Matt Shoemaker and J.A. Happ.

Considering the variety of needs over a 162-game season, it's a pretty good problem for the Twins to have.

The road to the roster still isn't closed, because there's still a need for a long reliever at the back of the bullpen, and that spot will almost certainly go to either Dobnak or Lewis Thorpe, who has had a similarly promising camp. My argument for Dobnak is that he's proven in his ability to pitch in that more flexible role, but manager Rocco Baldelli recently said that the Twins consider the pair to be equal in their ability to perform in that role.

The bottom line is that both Dobnak and Thorpe will see plenty of time in the big leagues this season. There's a lot of emphasis given to the Opening Day roster, but it's also important to remember that it's often the 40-man roster -- and not just the 26 who break camp -- who will determine the fate of a team.

With Alex Kirilloff figuring into the Twins' plans at some point in 2021, do we expect Jake Cave to remain in his role as the fourth outfielder? That’d make for three left-handed-hitting outfielders; a good case could be made for a right-handed hitter like Brent Rooker, or even Keon Broxton or Kyle Garlick over Cave.
-- Alec

I don't think Cave's roster status is really in question. You're correct in that it's a lefty-heavy outfield, but that's an arbitrary demarcation, considering that the position-player group is righty-heavy everywhere else.

Here's what distinguishes Cave: He can play all three outfield positions. Rooker and Garlick can't do that, and Broxton isn't on the 40-man roster. Sure, Max Kepler can slide over to center, but having your starting right fielder be your only reserve center fielder isn't exactly a great recipe for depth.

I also think most people don't give enough credit to Cave's bat, especially in a platoon capacity. He owns a career .803 OPS against right-handed pitchers and was comfortably above average in his offensive production in 2018 and '19. He doesn't have the ceiling of, say, Rooker, but his offense is solid enough that the defensive flexibility should give the Twins more value than just squeezing in another player based solely on offensive production in Spring Training.

How many games will Ryan Jeffers play this season?
-- Ismail K., Dallas, Texas

I'll bite with 90. I can't really see a Twins catcher playing more than 100 games in a season under Baldelli, and that's doubly the case when the other catcher is Mitch Garver, who won the American League Silver Slugger Award at the position two seasons ago. Jeffers is the better receiver, and I could see Garver getting some additional at-bats at designated hitter or maybe even first base.

How much of the pitching staff is a lock, and how many spots are still open?
-- Tony M., Pierre, S.D.

Barring injury, the Opening Day rotation will be Maeda, Berríos, Shoemaker, Pineda and Happ (likely in that order). The only question is if Happ will be fully ramped up for the workload, but he hopes to be up to 70-75 pitches by the end of Spring Training, which should put him in a good position.

When both Shaun Anderson and Devin Smeltzer were optioned last week, that left Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Hansel Robles, Alex Colomé, Jorge Alcala, Cody Stashak and Caleb Thielbar to form the core of the bullpen, and I don't really see the Twins leaving any of them off the roster.

That leaves the competition between Dobnak and Thorpe for the final spot as the long reliever/swingman, which I think is the only major question on the pitching side before the Twins break camp.

How’s the bullpen shaping up? Any surprises?
-- Katerina M., Minnesota

It looks like the contributions from non-roster pitchers this spring are really down to Derek Law, Luke Farrell, Andrew Albers and Brandon Waddell, but as mentioned earlier, I'd be surprised to see the Twins leave any of their established relievers off their roster. But considering the extent to which Minnesota shuffles its pitching staff during the regular season, opportunities should arise this summer.

Just ask Thielbar, who was in a similar position as a non-roster invitee last spring, then got his chance to impact the Twins' bullpen in August, and has since stuck around.

I know Spring Training games don't count, but is there any concern about multiple starters hitting under .200?
-- Eli C.

Here's a quote from Baldelli, when asked last week about Kepler's tough spring:

"That's not really something that's on my radar -- and frankly, at no point in the spring is on my radar -- unless something looks out of norm."

The point is that the results haven't really showed up for many of the Twins' hitters this spring, but the coaching staff doesn't throw any red flags unless it sees something of concern in plate approach, swing quality or quality of contact. It doesn't look like that's been the case.