These 7 pitches could decide the World Series

Fall Classic could come down to these signature offerings

October 22nd, 2018

Nothing magnifies every pitch like a World Series, and this Fall Classic features two of the best staffs in baseball.
There's talent up and down the rosters of the Dodgers and Red Sox, each of whom placed in their league's top five in virtually every major pitching category. But as the Series goes on, a handful of stars figure to be the difference between who holds the Commissioner's Trophy and who circles the 2019 season for redemption. It may come down to how well those pitchers execute their signature offerings, and so here's a look at how each of those deliveries is trending as the '18 World Series begins.
Chris Sale: Four-seam fastball
This might be the biggest question mark entering the Series, with the most profound implications: Will Sale, who battled shoulder and stomach ailments through the American League side of the postseason, have his 'A'-level heater?
When Sale's four-seamer crests between 96-100 mph, he's the most imposing starting pitcher in baseball. But we haven't seen that fastball in several months. Sale's downward velocity trend has been noted elsewhere in advance of Game 1, but it's worth highlighting again:
Sale's average four-seam fastball velocity, 2018
April-Aug.:
95.5 mph
Sept.: 93.0 mph
ALDS Game 1: 94.6 mph
ALCS Game 1: 92.0 mph

Sale's fastball velocity allows him to set up his slider and changeup and be a premier strikeout artist. But his starts can be a slog when that velocity dips. That was the case in ALCS Game 1 against the Astros, when he notably recorded just six swinging strikes over 86 pitches and lasted just four innings. Another brief outing in Game 1 would echo across Boston's bullpen; starter would need to log more innings from the bullpen, as would the next pitcher on our list …
: Slider
It's been well documented: Kershaw has evolved this season into a breaking ball-dominant pitcher, and in three of his four outings this October he has shown how dominant he can still be with the approach. Kershaw recorded all nine of his strikeouts in NLCS Game 5 on breaking balls, including seven on his slider.

That slider is one of baseball's best pitches when Kershaw has his feel for it, and right now it appears he does. The southpaw showed a healthy 2.3-mph separation between his slider and fastball in Game 5 against Milwaukee, while also featuring the most vertical movement (or "drop") on that pitch since mid-June. The Red Sox hit breaking balls well -- most especially Steve Pearce, whose .630 slugging percentage against curves and sliders led MLB -- but Kershaw can neutralize any lineup when he's right.
: Cutter
You're likely familiar with this pitch; Jansen throws it anywhere between 80-90 percent of the time in a given year. But after a rocky second half filled with health scares and home runs, it's noteworthy that Jansen's cutter is back to the pitch we're accustomed to seeing, particularly in terms of velocity:
Jansen's cutter velocity, 2018

Pre All-Star break:
92.1 mph
Aug.: 92.5 mph
Sept.: 91.8 mph
Postseason: 93.0 mph

Jansen's hard-hit rate (balls hit with 95-plus mph exit velocity) is down to a more characteristic 25 percent during the postseason, where he's allowed only four baserunners out of 24 batters faced. He may be called upon for several multiple-inning saves against Boston, and looks like he's back in prime form to do so.
: Knuckle curve
Kimbrel is navigating one of the rockiest stretches of his career, and the way his opponents are spitting on his secondary pitch is likely one reason why. Hitters are holding off on Kimbrel's curve, choosing instead to sit on his elevator fastball.
Kimbrel's swing rate induced on curveballs, 2018

Through Aug.:
38.7 percent
Sept.: 37.5 percent
Postseason: 22.7 percent
When Major League hitters can hone in on one pitch, they do damage, even if it's a fastball as good as Kimbrel's; the Yankees and Astros hit .313 and slugged .438 against his heater over the first two rounds. And Kimbrel has a vested interest in getting hitters to swing at his curve, since it's been one of the best in average allowed and whiff-per-swing rate over the last two seasons. The Dodgers were the most disciplined lineup in baseball this year, and their ability to lay off Kimbrel's hook could be huge in a tight game.
: Changeup
Price got the monkey off his back in ALCS Game 5, and did so with an approach that's worked for many pitchers in October: He took a little something off. The southpaw went with a changeup on roughly 42 percent of his deliveries against Houston for his highest usage rate on that pitch of any start in his career.

It was a break in form for one of the most fastball-reliant starters in the game, but it was super effective. The Astros swung and missed Price's changeup 12 times, struck out against it five times and wound up hitless in 10 at-bats. The Dodgers, meanwhile, posted the NL's highest slugging percentage against fastballs and feature a number of hitters who like to pull the ball. Price's changeup could keep them honest in Game 2, and enable him to go more to his preferred spot inside against righties with his fastball assortment.
: Four-seam fastball
The Dodgers' young ace possesses one of the best four-seam velocity and spin combinations of any starter in baseball, and it was a dominant pitch in the regular season. No starter who ended at least 100 plate appearances with a four-seamer allowed a lower batting average than Buehler, and only three starters compiled a lower hard-hit rate on the pitch. Thrown in tandem with Buehler's sinker and cutter, this pitch often overwhelms.

But while Buehler's velocity has remained intact, October adrenaline has made his fastball a little wild. The right-hander has grooved twice as many four-seamers in the heart of the zone than he did in the regular season, and the Braves and Brewers slugged .543 against it. That includes 's grand slam in NLDS Game 3, an at-bat that Atlanta's phenom worked to a 3-1 count thanks to Buehler's errant command. 's home run in NLCS Game 7 also came off a Buehler fastball right down the middle.
There's no question Buehler has the stuff for October, but he'll need to show he can slow the heartbeat appropriately, too.

: Four-seam fastball
Eovaldi is experiencing anything but a velocity issue. The righty threw fastballs clocked by Statcast™ at 101.6 and 101.1 mph during his strikeout of Astros star in ALCS Game 5, marking his two fastest pitches of the season. In fact, 11 of Eovaldi's 15 fastest deliveries of 2018 have come in October, and all but one of those top 15 were recorded after the calendar flipped to September.

In other words, Eovaldi is peaking at exactly the right time for Boston, which will now in all likelihood possess the two hardest throwers in this series between Eovaldi and Joe Kelly. Velocity isn't the only key to pitching, but it can certainly overwhelm at times -- particularly in pressure situations, like just about every inning of a World Series. The Dodgers, for what it's worth, hit .197 against pitches 98 mph or faster during the regular season, seventh-worst among the 30 MLB offenses. L.A. loves to swing for the fences, but Eovaldi's heat could combat that either at the start of a game or out of the bullpen in relief.