The closest division race in baseball is within the AL Central, where the White Sox lead the Guardians by a half-game.
The teams meet in Cleveland for a three-game series beginning Monday, and while there are more than a week of games after this set, we may know a lot more about where this race is headed on Wednesday afternoon after this series concludes.
“This is why you play. This is meaningful baseball. These are playoff games,” White Sox shortstop Colson Montgomery said. “This is determining your season. Come out flat, season is going to be over. I think we are going to be pretty juiced up for it and it’s going to be fun.”
Let’s dive in:
The postseason picture: What’s at stake?
White Sox: It once looked as if the White Sox could lock down a playoff spot on this trip to Cleveland, but much like the Guardians, they are fighting for their playoff lives. Winning a series in Ohio would be a significant step in securing their first playoff appearance since 2021.
Even one victory in these three games gives the White Sox a season-series nod over the Guardians, holding a 6-4 edge entering Monday, and the all-important first tiebreaker in the division. The White Sox are also battling Houston for the AL’s two seed, which gives them a bye in the Wild Card round for the playoffs. The Sox lead the Astros by 1 1/2 games. The White Sox enter Monday with a 27-15 mark against the AL Central and play 10 straight within the division before finishing at home with the Rockies.
This series is important for manager Will Venable’s young crew to build momentum after losing nine of 12 prior to Saturday night’s stunning ninth-inning comeback to beat the Cardinals. Randal Grichuk’s two-out, two-strike, two-run home run off closer Riley O’Brien might have been just the boost this team needed at the perfect September time, although they dropped a tough 3-1 decision to the Cardinals on Sunday and finished with a 1-5 Interleague record for the week.
“It’s going to be exciting, with both teams knowing what’s on the table for us,” White Sox third baseman Miguel Vargas said. “We are prepared and we are very excited for that matchup.”
The White Sox are in the preferred position of the team being chased, although by the slimmest of margins. If that Sept. 14 scenario was presented to them in February or March, they clearly would have been happy to accept.
“Nothing changes. Leave it all out on the field,” catcher Kyle Teel said. “Get our work in and go compete. Guys in this room, we know what we're capable of doing. We've got an exceptional team and we just need to stay within ourselves and go out there and compete."
Guardians: Everything is at stake for Cleveland. This is the Guardians’ best chance to overcome the White Sox in their push to win a third consecutive division title. But the series could also have repercussions in the Wild Card race, where the Guards hold a one-game lead over the Blue Jays for the final spot.
Cleveland would assume a half-game division lead if it wins two games this series. A series sweep would mean a 1 1/2-game lead and earning the all-important tiebreaker. Winning the Central and earning a bye in the Wild Card round would allow the Guardians to line up their dynamic duo, starters Gavin Williams and Parker Messick, for the Division Series. That’s the primary goal they’re playing for down the stretch.
With a series loss or a sweep, the Guardians’ divisional deficit would be hairy with time running out in the regular season, certainly with Chicago holding the tiebreaker in that scenario. That could also leave Cleveland on the outside looking in at the postseason picture entirely, depending on how Toronto (75-75) fares against Detroit this week. Let’s not forget about the Rangers (74-76), who sit two games back.
What has been an area of strength for each team down the stretch?
White Sox: Having young, overpowering arms such as Hagen Smith and Grant Taylor in the bullpen has made for tough late matchups for the opposition. But the White Sox offense has been the team’s guiding light. Their bats and a defining characteristic of playing all 27 outs, every game, down to the final strike. The White Sox lead the AL in runs scored, rank third in home runs and are tied for fifth in OPS. Vargas, Munetaka Murakami and Montgomery have struggled of late, but they also have topped 30 home runs and can change games with one swing of the bat.
Guardians: The Cleveland bullpen has been dependable while taking on a heavy workload in September. The Guardians rank second in relief ERA (2.24) and in innings pitched (56 1/3) this month. Steven Kwan has also enjoyed a resurgent second half in a lineup that has grown much deeper as the season has progressed, behind players such as rookies Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana, up-and-comers Brayan Rocchio and Angel Martínez, and Trade Deadline additions Jo Adell and Nathaniel Lowe. The Guardians have a .712 OPS since the Deadline compared to .680 before.
What are some of the weaknesses that could make each team vulnerable in the final stretch?
White Sox: Remember that potent White Sox offense just discussed above? Well it has struggled during a 4-10 run over their past 14 games. They have scored 15 runs in total over six games since Sept. 8. They also have 17 plate appearances with the bases loaded over these last 14 games, going 1-for-13 with four walks, per MLB research. The South Siders have been in first place for 93 days and every day since July 4, compared to seven total from 2022-25. So they have been in control, but at three games over .500, they certainly aren’t perfect.
Guardians: The Guardians have eight players with 10-plus home runs, if you include Adell’s production with the Angels pre-Deadline. But they rank last in the Majors in home runs as a team, with 142. Their offensive production doesn’t flow through the long ball, which could be of significance at a time of year when one swing can flip a crucial game.
A few other things are less weaknesses and rather things to monitor. Cleveland’s rotation has a 6.34 ERA through 13 games in September. That group has been the club’s backbone all season; the Guardians rank second in the AL in rotation innings (811) and fourth in ERA (3.90). But there have been some hiccups this month, and they need that group to continue paving the way even as workloads pile up.
Another thing: José Ramírez has hit just .214 with a .559 OPS in 42 games since returning from left hamate surgery. It’s been a process for the superstar. Can the Guardians make a push while he’s working to find his form at likely less than 100%?
Identify the most intriguing pitching matchup of the series:
Williams and Sean Burke have each been an anchor in their respective rotations this season. They will square off in Monday’s series opener. Williams has recorded a 3.78 ERA and a career-high 228 strikeouts in 169 innings over 29 starts this season. He’s vying to become only the seventh pitcher in Cleveland franchise history with 250 strikeouts in a season, following Bob Feller (1940, ’41 and ’46), Herb Score (’56), Sam McDowell (’65, ’68, ’69, ’70), Luis Tiant (’68), Corey Kluber (2014 and ’17) and Shane Bieber (’19).
Sean Newcomb opens for Burke, just as he did for Luis Castillo in Saturday’s exciting victory, so the right-hander becomes the bulk hurler. Burke lines up as the No. 1 starter in the White Sox rotation and looked the part while posting a 1.60 ERA over 10 starts from June 18 to Aug. 11, striking out 79 and walking 11 in 62 innings. Since that run of excellence, Burke has a 7.52 ERA over his last five starts, including seven runs allowed over 1 1/3 innings in his last loss to Pittsburgh. The White Sox lined up their rotation to feature Burke and Davis Martin vs. Cleveland.