Now this is what you call a showdown.
Two-time defending AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal will climb the mound opposite 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara on Sunday afternoon at Comerica Park as the Tigers host the Marlins. Hits will almost certainly be hard to come by.
"I think everybody in the league knows who he is and what he's capable of, and obviously the talent that he is," Skubal told MLB.com's Jason Beck about Alcantara.
Added Alcantara: "I think we're going to be great on Sunday."
Skubal is almost always the headliner when he toes the rubber, and for good reason: Since the start of the 2024 season, among qualified pitchers, only Paul Skenes has a lower ERA than Skubal's 2.31 mark, and no one has accumulated more WAR than Skubal (13.1). But Alcantara may actually be the bigger story here. Through three starts, the right-hander looks like his vintage self, going deep into games and dominating with a low pitch count in a way that is reminiscent of the ace we saw a few years ago.
"I've been waiting for this moment, to be in 'Sandy Mode,'" Alcantara said. "Last year was hard. Hopefully I'm back. I don't like to talk too much. I don't like to give that much credit to myself. But I'm going to say that Sandy's back, right?"
It sure looks like it.
Alcantara's ranks among qualified SP, 2026
Among 82 qualified pitchers
- 1st in innings pitched (24 1/3)
- 1st in pitches per inning (10.7)
- 3rd in ERA (0.74)
- 1st in expected ERA (1.36)
- 2nd in fWAR (0.9)
- 3rd in batting average against (.123)
We did not see this version of Alcantara last season, at least not with any sort of regularity. He missed the entire 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, spanning 571 days between big league starts. Though a trying 2025 season ended on a positive note, Alcantara still posted the third-worst ERA (5.36) among qualified starting pitchers.
Skubal can relate to what Alcantara experienced. The left-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in the middle of his sophomore season at Seattle University. When he returned to play a year and a half later, he struggled.
"That's why I was drafted in the ninth round," Skubal said.
“It’s a frustrating thing when you start to feel good and then you start competing again and you try to do too much because you’re finally feeling good,” he continued. “It’s like this internal battle with yourself. Once you get back to playing baseball and just going out there and competing, and having a regular offseason, I think that’s huge.”
"My mentality is completely different from last year," Alcantara said. "My confidence is back. Last year, I wasn’t 100% confident about my health. Now, I’m not worried about what happened to me a couple years ago. I feel like I’m a normal person, like nothing happened to me."
Along with a confidence bump, there are a number of things that help explain why Alcantara is dominating again in 2026.
There's a lot of stuff happening here. For one, Alcantara's 4.7% walk rate would be a career low. It's probably unreasonable to expect his walk rate to remain that low -- but perhaps it could stay below the 6.0% threshold, as it did in 2021 and 2022.
The rest of this just looks like a return to normal. Alcantara is inducing ground balls at a rate that mirrors his career average. He's experiencing one of the largest year-to-year improvements in hard-hit rate, jumping from the 15th percentile of MLB to the 80th percentile. Batters are chasing his stuff -- and missing it -- more often than they did last year, but again, these levels are roughly on par with where they've been in the past.
"We've been working on locating my four-seam in the bullpen, and it's been great," Alcantara said. "We just need to keep the same plan every time I go to the mound. Try to be great and aggressive with locating my fastball. Then come in with my two-seam and try to finish with my changeup."
That's a slightly different approach from last year. Through three starts, Alcantara is throwing his four-seam fastball 28.1% of the time in 0-0, 1-0, and 0-1 counts. Last season, he threw the four-seamer just 10.7% of the time in those same counts. Meanwhile, in two-strike counts, he's nearly doubled his changeup usage from 24.2% to 40.4%.
The changeup in particular has dominated. Opponents are just 2-for-19 against the pitch, which is inducing a 45.9% swing-and-miss rate. When Alcantara is at his best, the changeup is his best pitch. Like the heavy sinker, it's difficult to lift, resulting in a steady stream of ground balls. Of the 10 batted balls that hitters have put in play against the changeup, seven have been on the ground.
The one thing that isn't a big part of Alcantara's renaissance is the strikeout. His 20.9% strikeout rate is in line with his career average (21%) and ranks 52nd among qualified starting pitchers. That's OK with Alcantara.
"I remember when I won the Cy Young, I wasn't getting a lot of strikeouts," said Alcantara, whose 23.4% strikeout rate in 2022 ranked 56th among 140 pitchers to throw at least 100 innings. "So why can't I do that again? Forget about strikeouts. Just be out there, throw your fastball in a great spot, same with the slider and the breaking ball."
It's a rare approach in today's game, but it's working. By one metric, Alcantara's command is as sharp as it's ever been. FanGraphs' Location+ metric -- which attempts to measure a pitcher's ability to put pitches in the right place -- grades Alcantara at a career-best 107 Location+ through three starts. He is throwing his pitches with intent and landing them where he wants. The four-seamer, for instance, is running a career-high 69.2% zone rate; the changeup is at a career-low 33.8% zone rate.
That's a clear attack plan, pouring changeups in beneath the zone. He's generated at least five whiffs against his changeup in each of his first three starts, including six swings-and-misses in his last start against the Reds.
All of this brings us to Sunday. Skubal hasn't quite been his best through his first three starts of the year -- and for Skubal, that means a mere 2.55 ERA and just 16 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings. Until proven otherwise, he is still one of the two best pitchers in baseball.
Alcantara, meanwhile, is making a serious bid to re-enter the conversation.
MLB.com senior club reporter Jason Beck and MLB.com Marlins beat reporter Christina De Nicola contributed to this story.