The American League MVP race has been dominated by two names this entire decade. No one besides Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani has won AL MVP honors since José Abreu in the shortened 2020 season. In fact, only one other player -- Cal Raleigh last year -- even received a first-place vote from 2021-25.
But the 2026 race is shaping up to look very different.
Judge is going to be out quite a while with a stress fracture in one of his ribs, which will likely prevent him from winning his third straight AL MVP Award (and fourth overall). Ohtani, meanwhile, moved over to the NL after the 2023 campaign, so the door is wide open for someone new to take home the hardware in the AL this season.
Who’s it going to be? Looking at the contenders, a clear top four has emerged, but there are some other potential candidates to consider as well. Here’s a breakdown of the field.
All stats below are through Thursday.
THE BIG FOUR
The favorite: Yordan Alvarez
Alvarez was arguably the frontrunner even before Judge went down. The Astros slugger not only leads all MLB qualifiers with a 1.066 OPS but also has made the Triple Crown a realistic possibility with 22 homers (first in the AL), 48 RBIs (tied for third) and a .316 batting average (second).
It would be a fitting coronation for Alvarez, who has been MLB’s second-best hitter by wRC+ (165) since his 2019 debut, behind only Judge.
The WAR leader: Bobby Witt Jr.
A true five-tool superstar, Witt is having another strong season after finishing second in the AL MVP race in 2024 and fourth last year. The Royals shortstop leads the AL with 3.8 WAR (per FanGraphs), combining a 119 wRC+ with elite defense and baserunning.
Power production is the biggest variable for Witt, who has two 30-homer seasons under his belt but fell seven dingers short of the mark last season and is on pace to do so again. If he surges in that department, voters could gravitate toward his brand of all-around production over Alvarez -- assuming the Houston DH doesn’t end up capturing the Triple Crown.
So young, so good: Nick Kurtz
Kurtz reached the big leagues less than a year after being taken fourth overall in the 2024 MLB Draft and went on to deliver one of the greatest debut seasons baseball has seen. If there were any doubts about his ability to replicate that performance, he’s put them to rest. The Athletics first baseman has reached base at an MLB-leading .438 clip in 2026, and while he took some time to find his power stroke over the first two months, he’s fully locked in now.
Kurtz has homered seven times in his past 12 games and has outperformed everyone -- Alvarez included -- with a 184 wRC+ since April 12. The 23-year-old would be one of the youngest MVP winners in history if he can pull it off.
The Yankees’ other star slugger: Ben Rice
The Yankees’ most productive hitter this season actually isn’t their three-time MVP. It’s Rice, who has erupted for 18 homers, 45 RBIs and a 1.005 OPS that ranks second behind Alvarez among MLB qualifiers. The standings are also worth keeping an eye on -- while the Astros, Royals and A’s are all under .500, the Yankees are mere percentage points behind the Rays for the AL’s best record.
If Rice keeps it up and the Bronx Bombers finish as the AL’s top team even with Judge missing so much time, it’s certainly possible that the first baseman could take home AL MVP honors.
OTHER POTENTIAL CANDIDATES
Always in the mix: José Ramírez, Julio Rodríguez
As we look around at some others who could realistically challenge for the hardware, it makes sense to start with Ramírez, perhaps the best player never to win an MVP. The Guardians third baseman has received MVP votes in nine of the past 10 seasons, finishing as a finalist four times and logging three other top-six finishes. With 10 homers and a .765 OPS, Ramírez hasn’t played up to his typical standard at the plate this year, but he’s on pace for a career high in steals (55) and is having a superb defensive season at the hot corner.
Rodríguez could also work his way into the conversation. The Mariners center fielder is a notorious slow starter, but he finished among the top seven in AL MVP voting in three of his first four seasons nonetheless. J-Rod’s stat line also looks stronger than it usually does at this time of year thanks to a monster May, so if he avoids a dropoff in June and follows his typical second-half script, it could be a career year for the 25-year-old.
Acknowledge the Rays: Yandy Díaz, Junior Caminero
The run-differential gap between the Yankees (+103) and Rays (+12) suggests a correction is coming in the AL East standings. But last year’s Blue Jays heard the same thing and ended up capturing both the division crown and the AL’s top seed. No one should be discounting Tampa Bay’s chances of doing the same in 2026.
If the Rays do hold on, both Díaz and Caminero could find themselves in the thick of the race. Díaz has never had a 30-homer season and probably isn't going to get there this year, but he’s been the AL’s fourth-best hitter by wRC+ (160) behind Alvarez, Rice and Kurtz in 2026, notching an AL-best .331 average with a .940 OPS. Caminero isn’t far behind -- he’s tied for eighth in the league with a 141 wRC+, one year after producing 45 homers in his age-21 campaign.
The Trade Deadline wild card: Byron Buxton
Buxton’s age and injury history, not to mention the Twins’ 31-39 record, make him an MVP long shot. But what if the 32-year-old agrees to waive his no-trade clause, goes to a contender before the Deadline and delivers MVP-caliber numbers down the stretch? An MVP win like that has never happened before, but there's a first time for everything. Buxton has already crushed 20 homers for Minnesota this season and ranks fourth among AL qualifiers with a .559 slugging percentage.