When Steve Cohen bought the Mets in late 2020, he cited the Dodgers as the league’s model franchise, a blueprint for sustained success in the Majors.
“I like what the Dodgers are doing,” Cohen said.
Following this week’s three-game sweep at Dodger Stadium, the gap between the two teams seemed enormous.
The Mets are off to a 7-12 start, carrying an eight-game losing streak into a weekend series against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. That record put them only a half-game ahead of the Giants and Rockies for the NL’s worst record entering Thursday, already trailing the first-place Braves by five games in the NL East. They’ve scored just 12 runs during their eight-game skid and been shut out three times.
Mets fans are panicking, but folks in the industry aren’t so convinced the sky is falling.
“It’s easy to panic about the offense, but overall I think they'll be OK,” an exec with a National League club said. “They have a .266 BABIP, which is bottom-10 in MLB. That won't last.”
If you root for the Mets those are the words you want to hear from a third party, but many are wondering how they ended up at seemingly at the exact same spot they ended last season despite massive roster turnover. Let’s break it down and see what might come next.
Transformative winter
The 2025 season ended in disappointment for the Mets, who failed to qualify for the postseason with an 83-79 record. President of baseball operations David Stearns had an active offseason, letting fan favorites Pete Alonso and Edwin Díaz depart via free agency while trading long-time Mets Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil.
Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco and Devin Williams signed with the Mets as free agents, while Stearns traded for Marcus Semien, Luis Robert Jr. and Freddy Peralta, turning over a significant part of New York’s roster for 2026.
A sweep of the Giants and a walk-off win over the Diamondbacks lifted the Mets to a 7-4 record to open 2026, but after dropping the final two games against Arizona, New York has been swept by the Athletics and Dodgers, matching last September’s eight-game slide for longest losing streak the club has endured since 2018.
“It’s a weird collection of high-profile players, so that has to be an odd clubhouse,” an American League executive said. “I’m not sure there’s much of a soul to that team; it just doesn’t scream ‘winning team’ even though objectively it adds up.”
The offense entered Thursday ranked 13th in the National League in runs scored and home runs (tied), 14th in batting average and 15th in OPS, lending little support to a pitching staff that ranks sixth in the league in ERA.
Juan Soto’s calf injury, which has kept him out since April 3, has certainly been a factor in the lineup’s struggles, but there are plenty of other culprits when it comes to the Mets’ offensive ineptitude through the first three weeks of the season.
Fortunately for the Mets, Soto is due back from the injured list next week, as Bichette, Semien and Polanco – three of the team’s key offseason additions – are each carrying an OPS below .600. Not surprisingly, a lot of attention has been focused on Bichette, the most high-profile of the offseason acquisitions.
“[His] sprint speed is down,” said an NL exec, noting the sprained PCL that cost him much of the 2025 postseason. “And even accounting for his injury, it still seems off. He’s never been a bat-speed guy, but he’s even down a tick from last year there. He’s not barreling balls at all, and his swing decisions have been even poorer than usual.”
In addition to veteran players having slow starts, others are struggling, too.
A top prospect dilemma
Rookie Carson Benge won the right field job with a fantastic performance this spring, though it appeared to be a foregone conclusion entering camp that the rookie was the favorite for the job. He has looked overmatched thus far in the regular season, posting a .151/.237/.226 slash line with one homer and three RBIs in 59 plate appearances.
“It might have been the right decision at the time, but it's because they put themselves in that position for it to be the right decision,” an AL executive said. “You have to think above and beyond what is on the surface; you have to go deeper than that. You're talking about a guy who had one full year of professional baseball under his belt; yes, he had played very well in that first full year, but the gap between Triple-A and the big leagues has never been greater.”
The Mets signed outfielder veteran Mike Tauchman to provide some buffer for Benge, but Tauchman injured his meniscus during Spring Training, which pushed Benge into the starting role.
“They should have told [Benge], ‘You can hit 1.000 this spring, hit a home run in every at-bat and play unbelievable defense; you are not making the team out of Spring Training,’” the AL exec said. “That's the conversation they had to have with Carson Benge. Tell him, ‘Hey, you're on the path. You will be here soon enough. You will force our hand, but it's not going to be from Day 1.’”
Reasons for hope
If there has been a positive for the Mets to this point, it’s the pitching staff. Clay Holmes and Nolan McLean have been superb, while Peralta has been solid in two of his past three outings.
A 7-12 start is by no means a death sentence when it comes to reaching the postseason. Just last year, the Reds reached October with just 83 wins, while in 2023 the D-backs reached the World Series in a year in which they won 84 games.
That said, the Mets have unquestionably dug themselves an early-season hole. Since 2000, only seven teams have overcome a similar start to play into October, with four of them winning their division and three others earning a Wild Card spot. Only three of those seven – the 2024 Astros, 2022 Guardians and 2015 Rangers – have accomplished the feat since 2010.
“I think the Mets will be playing high-stakes games all season,” an NL executive said. “They should be able to compete for a spot in the postseason. It’s way too early to tell whether this is an early season blip or a foreshadowing of something more ominous.”