SAN DIEGO – Can the Brewers close it out? Can the Padres hold them off and live for another day?
That's pretty much what it all comes down to as the two clubs prepare to meet for Game 3 of the National League Division Series as it shifts to San Diego and resumes Tuesday.
The Brewers came from behind to win the first two games. As difficult as it might be, the Padres have to flush it and focus simply on staying alive.
"Win-or-go-home games from here on out, so yeah, we have no choice," Padres second baseman Jake Cronenworth said.
In all best-of-five postseason series, teams with a 2-0 lead have gone on to win the series 83 of 93 times (89%). Teams that have won the first two games at home in Division Series with the current 2-2-1 format have gone on to win the series 33 of 36 times (92%). The last time a team rallied from an 0-2 hole in a best-of-five series came in the 2017 ALDS, with the Yankees advancing after dropping the first two games at Cleveland.
Milwaukee won 42 games in come-from-behind fashion during the regular season, tied for fifth most in MLB. With two in the postseason, it could be looking for one more. But to do it in San Diego, they would have to snap a postseason road losing streak that stood at 11 games going into Tuesday night. The Brewers’ most recent win on the road in the postseason was a 4-0 triumph over the Dodgers and current Padre Walker Buehler in Game 3 of the 2018 NLCS. Milwaukee's current road skid is the second-longest such streak in postseason history, behind a 12-game slide endured by the Senators/Twins from 1925-87.
"We know what our strengths are and we know how to support each other," Game 2 hero Jackson Chourio said via an interpreter. "So I think everyone's rooting for each other in there. Everyone's supporting each other and we know how to win."
When is the game and how can I watch it?
Game 3 of the Brewers-Padres NLDS airs nationally at 8:30 p.m. CT/6:30 p.m. PT on FS1, FOX Deportes and FOX ONE.
All series are available in the US on MLB.TV with authentication to a participating Pay TV provider. Games also are available live internationally, although not in Canada. Sportsnet is MLB's exclusive English language broadcaster in Canada for every Postseason game, while TVA Sports will be covering the entire AL Postseason and the World Series in French and Broadcaster RDS will cover the entire NL Postseason in French.
Who are the starting pitchers?
Brewers: RHP Dustin May
Key Stats: 3.14 ERA in 16 career games (13 starts) against the Padres
The Brewers’ highest-profile pickup at the Trade Deadline, May allowed three earned runs over 13 innings in his first two Brewers starts before going 1-2 with a 7.61 ERA over his final eight outings, saying at one point along the way, “It sucks to be sucking right now.” That’s emblematic of the frustration he expressed throughout his Brewers tenure so far, but the ballclub is banking that May’s postseason experience and success against San Diego (1.23 ERA in three starts this season for the Cardinals and Brewers) will help him turn the page to start the postseason.
Padres: Nick Pivetta
Key stats: 1.64 ERA in five starts since returning from IL in September
Pivetta (3-2, 2.86 ERA) missed nearly five months with a flexor strain in his right elbow. But since his early September return, he has been excellent across five starts. It’s hard to make all that much out of his Wild Card Series start in Game 2. He lasted only 3 1/3 innings -- largely because the Padres had a fresh bullpen and were going for a clinch -- allowing one run. Pivetta did not face the Brewers this season. He owns a career 8.76 ERA against them, but much of that damage came in one rough outing as a rookie with the Phillies in 2017.
What do the starting lineups look like?
Brewers: Joey Ortiz gets the start at third base and Jake Bauers moves up to the No. 2 spot against the right-hander.
1. Jackson Chourio, LF
2. Jake Bauers, 1B
3. William Contreras, C
4. Brice Turang, 2B
5. Christian Yelich, DH
6. Garrett Mitchell, CF
7. Cooper Pratt, SS
8. Sal Frelick, RF
9. Joey Ortiz, 3B
Padres: Jackson Merrill moves up to the No. 2 spot for the first time since July 20, and rookie Ethan Salas bats as high in the lineup as he's been since his September callup. Salas was always the likeliest starter behind the plate. He's caught Pivetta extensively down the stretch (including a couple of Pivetta’s rehab outings when Salas was still with Triple-A El Paso). Gavin Sheets was a late scratch as the designated hitter due to a stiff neck, and Samad Taylor took his place.
1. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
2. Jackson Merrill, CF
3. Manny Machado, 3B
4. Ty France, 1B
5. Ethan Salas, C
6. Xander Bogaerts, SS
7. Dustin Harris, LF
8. Samad Taylor, DH
9. Jake Cronenworth, 2B
How will the bullpens line up after the starter?
Brewers: The Brewers’ cadre of additional starters who made the NLDS roster -- Robert Gasser, Shane Drohan, Kyle Harrison -- would come into play in this game if May is on a short leash, and they are all fresh. The travel day will allow some rest for closer Trevor Megill and setup men Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby, who have all pitched scoreless baseball in each of the first two games of the series, with outings spanning multiple “ups.” Milwaukee’s relievers have combined for nine scoreless innings over the two games.
Padres: The Padres announced shortly before game time that All-Star closer Mason Miller was placed on the Postseason Paternity List and replaced on the roster by Wandy Peralta. Presumably, that leaves Adrian Morejon as the closer. Jason Adam and Bradgley Rodriguez would be his primary setup options, with Yuki Matsui available to handle lefties. Peralta can handle lefties, as well. Meanwhile, Buehler returned from the paternity list on Monday and will be available if needed for Game 3. Ace Michael King, who pitched five innings on Sunday, could be available, as well, Stammen said.
Any injuries of note?
Brewers: The Brewers were worried about third baseman Joey Ortiz’s abdominal, groin and right knee injuries coming into the series, but he ran just fine in Game 1. He wasn’t in the lineup for Game 2, but that appeared matchup-related.
Padres: Jeremiah Estrada’s absence with a right shoulder impingement still looms large in the Padres’ bullpen, but the surprise return of Joe Musgrove (after missing nearly two years due to Tommy John surgery) could help mitigate that. Offensively, the Padres are in relatively decent shape. Sheets, who has battled a left foot issue for most of the second half, is limited to DH and pinch-hitting duties. But Luis Campusano "is good to go," per Stammen, after dealing with a bruised hand during Game 2.
Who is hot and who is not?
Brewers: Small sample alert, but Chourio has a .958 OPS in the first two games of the series after back-to-back multi-RBI games. Sunday marked the fifth multi-RBI performance in the playoffs of his young career. His 15 career postseason RBIs trail only Ryan Braun (16) in Brewers franchise history. Turang is still seeking his first hit in the series. He’s 0-for-7 so far.
Padres: France has started the postseason with seven hits in 15 at-bats. (There’s a case he should have eight and a homer to his name as well.) Machado and Bogaerts have five apiece and have been working tough at-bats throughout the playoffs. Austin Hays, meanwhile, has started 0-for-7, and Cronenworth is 1-for-13.