ANAHEIM -- When the Mets traded for Freddy Peralta in January, Peralta was billed, for obvious reasons, as the Mets’ new ace -- “one of the top starters in baseball,” as president of baseball operations David Stearns put it. Even then, the Mets harbored optimism that rookie Nolan McLean could supplant Peralta atop their rotation sooner rather than later, or that perhaps Kodai Senga might re-establish himself as a frontline starter.
Far less mentioned was Clay Holmes as the possible ace of this staff. It’s not that the Mets disliked Holmes. Far from it. It’s simply that his 2025 performance suggested he was more of a mid-rotation starter than an ace.
Not anymore. Through seven starts, Holmes has been, to borrow his boss’s phrase, “one of the top starters in baseball.” Delivering 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball in a 5-1 win over the Angels on Sunday, Holmes lowered his ERA to 1.69, which ranks second in the National League behind only Justin Wrobleski of the Dodgers (1.25).
“He’s just on another level right now physically, mentally, the way he’s making adjustments in games, the way he’s using his pitches, trusting his defense when he needs to,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said. “Overall from Clay, solid.”
“Holmes has definitely been tough to start the year,” added Angels outfielder Jo Adell.
In several respects, Holmes is old-school. Relying largely on the sinker that once made him a standout closer for the Yankees, Holmes features the third-best ground-ball rate in the Majors (and one of the highest in Mets history for a qualified pitcher) at 58.1 percent. He doesn’t strike out many batters, ranking in the bottom quartile of the league in that category. But pitching to contact allows him to go deep into games. Only three times this season has a Mets starter completed seven innings. Two of those outings belong to Holmes.
He would have made it a third on Sunday if not for Bo Bichette’s throwing error that allowed Oswaldo Peraza to reach base with two outs in the seventh. As it was, Luke Weaver struck out the next batter to preserve a one-run lead, which Mark Vientos had given the Mets with a two-run homer in the fourth. Vientos added a second home run in the eighth to pad New York’s lead.
“When he gets hot,” Mendoza said of Vientos, “he can carry a team.”
All told, Holmes allowed four hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, with six strikeouts and three walks. The victory was his fourth, which is four times as many as any other Mets starter. His 42 2/3 innings this season also lead the Mets, placing him in contrast with McLean and Peralta, who routinely struggle with middle-innings efficiency. Not Holmes. In the fifth inning and beyond, opponents are hitting .167 off him.
While Holmes currently rates among the NL’s early Cy Young contenders, he has parlayed a fair bit of luck into this early success. His expected ERA of 3.97, which factors strikeout rate, walk rate and quality of contact into the equation, is more than twice his actual mark of 1.69. His FIP, which also seeks to extract luck from the equation, is 3.67.
Holmes is clearly benefitting from a defense that’s gobbling up the soft contact he induces -- and even some of the hard stuff. With a man on first base and one out in the sixth inning, for example, Jorge Soler hit what could have been a game-tying double in the gap. Left fielder MJ Melendez ranged over to make a tumbling catch, preserving the lead for Holmes. (The finest catch of the game, however, belonged to Carson Benge, who took extra bases away from Vaughn Grissom in the ninth.)
Yet Holmes saw a similar (albeit not as exaggerated) discrepancy last year, his first back in a rotation after six years spent as a full-time reliever. The right-hander’s contact-oriented, ground-ball approach will always require him to depend on his defense, and he’s leaning into that more than ever.
Last year, Holmes said he felt like he needed to expand his repertoire to succeed as a starting pitcher. This year, he has upped his sinker usage in an attempt to make that the true focal point of his arsenal. While Holmes still throws the sinker far less than he did as a reliever, he’s increasingly relying on his signature pitch.
“It’s kind of a comfort thing,” Holmes said. “The trust with the sinker was always there, but I feel like especially now, I just feel like there’s a lot of confidence and trust in the sinker. … When I have that, I feel like I’m really able to pitch off it and feel like myself and pitch with some confidence.”