Nick Morabito could do the math. As someone who was drafted and signed when he was 19 years old, he expected to be on a different timeline than his fellow prep peers in the 2022 Draft.
“It wasn't something new to me,” he said. “I kind of knew about it all along.”
And now, that time has come. The Mets’ No. 16 prospect will be Rule 5-eligible for the first time this offseason, making his assignment to Scottsdale in the Arizona Fall League his last opportunity to prove to the Mets he’s worthy of a 40-man roster spot -- or to the other 29 teams that he’s deserving of a Major League look.
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The best version of the 2022 75th overall pick is one that makes the most of his plus-plus speed and potentially plus defense in center field, and those might be the attributes that force the issue. If he gets picked in the Rule 5 Draft, he could be a fifth outfielder for an MLB club who could provide value off the bench with his wheels and glove.
The speed has long been there. The former Virginia Tech commit has stolen 108 bags over his last two seasons, including 49 this year for Binghamton -- third-most at Double-A.
The defense has been a work in progress but a positive one. Morabito was a shortstop back at Gonzaga College High School in Washington D.C., but moved to the outfield straight away in pro ball (with some minor time at second base mixed in). Ironing out initial reads off the bat and first steps were part of the process while the speed helped paper over some of the cracks. But he’s improved enough over time to earn plus grades for his field work from some evaluators.
“I think getting more reads, doing stuff like shagging in BP, being able to get live reads in BP -- timing is huge,” Morabito said. “You can kind of relate it to hitting. You have to be on time for the pitch and react accordingly.”
That offensive side of the ball could be the decision-maker for the Mets and others.
The right-handed hitter posted a .273 average, .348 on-base percentage and 119 wRC+ in his 492 plate appearances with Binghamton, giving him solid marks for this year’s Eastern League champion. His 119 hits for the Rumble Ponies led the club on a roster that also boasted big-name prospects like Carson Benge (NYM No. 2/MLB No. 21), Jett Williams (NYM No. 3/MLB No. 30), Jacob Reimer (NYM No. 6), A.J. Ewing (NYM No. 7) and Ryan Clifford (NYM No. 8) at points in 2025.
But a lot of those knocks were wormburners. Morabito posted a 53.9 percent ground-ball rate in the Eastern League -- the eighth-highest mark among 144 Double-A qualifiers. Only Christian Yelich (56.7) had a higher such percentage among MLB qualified hitters in 2025. That tendency to keep it on the grass led to only six homers for Morabito, but even that was a career high and equal to his dinger output from 2023 and 2024 combined.
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Morabito has tried to address the concerns by firing a little earlier in his stance, hoping that will help him from getting on top of the ball so much.
“Obviously, I'm not trying to hit ground balls,” he said. “I'm trying to elevate the ball. So that's one thing that I'll always be working on, just [trying to] catch the ball more out in front.”
There have been some positive early returns in Arizona in that regard. Most notably, he clubbed a 403-foot triple to right-center on Tuesday in Peoria that just missed going over the wall. The ball had an exit velocity of 104.1 mph and a launch angle of 30 degrees, making it an easy barrel -- despite coming on a 1-2 cutter against which Morabito was just trying to protect the plate. While six of his 11 batted balls have continued to come on the ground, an at-bat like that is something Morabito can return to in video work.
Overall, the New York outfielder has gone 5-for-12 (.417) with the triple, a double, three walks and three steals in his first three games as a Scorpion -- just the start you’d hope for if you were trying to win a 40-man spot. But while he’s been thinking about that timeline for three-plus years, he’s keeping his Arizona focus more granular.
“I'm not really worried about it right now,” Morabito said. “My goal here is just to be the best player that I can, go out every day, play ball and be here to support my teammates.”