This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo’s Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
NEW YORK -- If one were to identify a singular culprit for the Mets’ failure to make the playoffs in 2025, it would be the starting rotation. A group that was so strong at the start of the season faded during the final two-thirds of the campaign, leaving the Mets continually searching for answers.
To correct things this offseason, the Mets only made one notable rotation move, but it was a major one: Freddy Peralta coming to the team in a four-player trade. The Mets hope that with Peralta leading the way, rookie Nolan McLean establishing himself over a full season and multiple veterans bouncing back, they can transform back into one of the better units in the National League.
Heading into Spring Training, here’s the Mets’ rotation picture at a glance:
On the 40-man roster: Peralta, McLean, Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Kodai Senga, Jonah Tong, Tobias Myers, Christian Scott, Justin Hagenman
Injured: Tylor Megill
Notable departures: Frankie Montas, Griffin Canning, Brandon Sproat
Non-roster invitees: TBA
The projected starters
The Mets have six obvious rotation favorites based on their past performance or contract situations: Peralta, McLean, Manaea, Holmes, Peterson and Senga. The headliner is of course Peralta, whom the Mets acquired along with Myers for Top 100 prospects Jett Williams and Sproat. They will be counting on Peralta to anchor their rotation all season and into the playoffs, ideally with a healthy assist from McLean.
The wild card is Senga, who has struggled to stay on the mound and performed inconsistently when healthy. If Senga proves worthy of a spot, the Mets will find themselves with an enviable rotation crunch. They used a six-man rotation often last year and could certainly do so again, at least to start the season.
Another important factor is Manaea, who’s entering the second season of a three-year, $75 million contract. Sidelined for much of last summer due to right oblique and left elbow issues, Manaea should be healthier entering camp. If he can rediscover his 2024 form, the Mets will be in far better shape.
Last year, Holmes and Peterson established themselves as dependable mid-rotation options, though Peterson tailed off notably in the second half. Still, both did enough that their jobs should not be in question entering the spring.
Any competition?
Lots. Scott in particular looked like a future star before undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2024. He’s healthy now and primed to compete for a rotation spot, though Scott may wind up back at Triple-A Syracuse to begin the year.
Also of note is Myers, the secondary piece who came to the Mets in the Peralta trade. Myers has produced a 3.48 ERA in 31 career Major League starts, but like Scott, he could become the victim of a crowded rotation picture. Unlike Scott, Myers has ample bullpen experience, giving him a fallback option to make the Opening Day roster.
Tong is also a strong bet to wind up back at Triple-A, based largely off the cup of coffee that saw him post a 7.71 ERA in five 2025 starts. While the Mets still believe strongly in Tong’s future, he may not be ready for the Majors right now.
What about the future?
No Mets starter looms more important than McLean, who rocketed up prospect lists last year, debuted in August and has since become an integral part of the pitching plan in Flushing. This time around, the Mets will rely on McLean from the jump, hoping he develops from a rookie standout into a bona fide ace. If all goes to plan by season’s end, it’s possible he could even leapfrog Peralta -- who can become a free agent after the season -- on the organizational depth chart.
The team will hope for improvement from Tong, who followed a similar arc as McLean but did not experience nearly the same level of success once he arrived in MLB. Those two are under team control for six more seasons, while Scott is for five. If all three fulfill their potential, the Mets should have a solid rotation core in place for the rest of this decade.
Beyond that group, the Mets will be looking to see which prospect might pop next. Keep an eye on Santucci, the team’s 2024 second-round pick who reached Double-A Binghamton last season, and Watson, a seventh-round selection from 2024. Wenninger has already made 26 starts at Binghamton and could see significant time at Triple-A this summer. That would give him a chance to debut late in the season.