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Rutschman has the benefit of having succeeded in the Majors, so it isn’t a fair fight. But as mentioned above, Rutschman is more well-rounded with above-average framing and impressive pop times.\n\nIt’s on defense that Álvarez struggles most. His framing and blocking remain works in progress, and he’s often taken to the one-knee stance behind the plate as part of his development in stealing strikes in the lower part of the zone. The Mets have hopes he can still be an average defensive catcher as he continues his development behind the plate, and his plus arm helped him throw out 37.5 percent of attempted basestealers during his stay in Syracuse. (Triple-A average was 21.5 percent in 2022.)\n\nBut it’s still going to be Álvarez’s bat that drives his profile, and as high a threshold as that puts on his offense, it can still make the youngster a perennial All-Star candidate in Queens. 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No. 1 overall prospects: How Álvarez differs from other catchers
No. 1 overall prospects: How Álvarez differs from other catchers
Since we began ranking prospects in 2004, there have been only two other catchers at the apex of the overall list -- Joe Mauer (preseason 2004) and Adley Rutschman (midseason 2021). Mauer was the 2009 AL MVP and won three batting titles, three Gold Gloves and five Silver Sluggers during a potential Hall of Fame career in Minnesota. Rutschman is an AL Rookie of the Year contender this season and already has a claim as one of the best all-around backstops in today’s game.
That’s heady company for Álvarez. It’s not like there haven’t been other great catching prospects over the years, like recent Top 10 talents Gabriel Moreno and Diego Cartaya or going much further back Buster Posey (topped out at No. 4 in preseason 2010) or Matt Wieters (No. 2, preseason 2009).
But none of them reached the ranking height of Mauer, Rutschman and Álvarez, and following the news of the New York backstop’s jump to the Majors, let’s dig into why he in particular generates so much excitement in modern prospect circles.
AGE
Álvarez became the game’s youngest Major Leaguer when he joined New York on Friday at just 20 years old, starting at DH and batting seventh against Atlanta. He won’t turn 21 until Nov. 19, so the Mets should be careful if and when they pop champagne after clinching the NL East in the next week. The organization has been aggressive in pushing Álvarez ever since signing him out of Venezuela in July 2018, starting with his jump stateside at just 17 years old the following year.
Álvarez has been at least two years younger than the average player of every Minor League circuit he’s seen so far in his career. He was the youngest player on an Eastern League Opening Day roster back in April and proceeded to hit .277/.368/.553 with 18 homers in 67 games for Binghamton after that. That translated to a 146 wRC+, making him 46 percent better than the average hitter in a circuit where he was 3.8 years younger than his average competition.
The backstop was the only 20-year-old to get more than 100 plate appearances at the Triple-A level this season. Following a right ankle injury and late-season surge, he finished with a .234/.382/.443 line and 121 wRC+ in 199 PA. Since 2010, he is one of only six 19/20-year-olds to post an OPS at or above .825 over at least 150 Triple-A plate appearances. The others are Wander Franco, Riley Greene, Ronald Acuña Jr., Freddie Freeman and Jesus Montero -- three former No. 1 overall prospects and an NL MVP/six-time All-Star.
POWER
When we updated our grades in August, Álvarez was the only prospect among the 900 we ranked with 70 power on the 20-80 scouting scale.
The right-handed slugger generates tremendous bat speed and utilizes his immense strength to send balls screaming over the fence. Back in Spring Training on March 24, he clobbered one homer at 108.9 mph off the bat that traveled 441 feet out to left center and off the scoreboard at St. Lucie’s Clover Park, instantly becoming the talk of the Grapefruit League. Mets manager Buck Showalter called it “a real big boy home run right there” and said in a press conference that Álvarez wasn’t wearing a PitchCom wristband at the time because his forearm was too big.
Writing up one more Francisco Álvarez piece and remembered this Buck Showalter Spring Training quote:
"You know the PitchCom [wristband]? You notice Álvarez doesn't wear it? You know why? Can't get it over his forearm."
Álvarez proceeded to hit 27 homers this season between his two stops, leading all Mets Minor Leaguers in the category. His 51 homers over the last two seasons are second-most among all Minor League catchers, trailing only Carlos Pérez (62) who is 11 years his senior, and tied for 17th-most in the Minors regardless of position.
Álvarez has the potential to be a 35-homer hitter at the top level by the time he settles in, and if that sounds rare for a catcher, it’s because it is.
Since the turn of the century, there have been only three cases of Major League backstops hitting at least 35 homers.. One was Salvador Perez and his MLB-best 48 homers last season. Mets fans might know the other two because they came from the same guy -- Mike Piazza in 2000 (38) and Mike Piazza in 2001 (36). That’s the rarefied air Álvarez is capable of joining.
Different than Rutschman
If we were ranking the two today, Rutschman would still slot in above Álvarez, as he did in every prospect ranking before he graduated. Rutschman has the benefit of having succeeded in the Majors, so it isn’t a fair fight. But as mentioned above, Rutschman is more well-rounded with above-average framing and impressive pop times.
It’s on defense that Álvarez struggles most. His framing and blocking remain works in progress, and he’s often taken to the one-knee stance behind the plate as part of his development in stealing strikes in the lower part of the zone. The Mets have hopes he can still be an average defensive catcher as he continues his development behind the plate, and his plus arm helped him throw out 37.5 percent of attempted basestealers during his stay in Syracuse. (Triple-A average was 21.5 percent in 2022.)
But it’s still going to be Álvarez’s bat that drives his profile, and as high a threshold as that puts on his offense, it can still make the youngster a perennial All-Star candidate in Queens. Perez was worth -19 Framing Runs last year, per Statcast, but still established a career-high 5.3 bWAR because of his hitting abilities. Piazza’s whole reputation was based on limited defensive value and high-end slugging.
Álvarez doesn’t need to meet the Cooperstown heights of his blue-and-orange predecessor to reach expectations. But as he’s shown time and again at his age and with his prodigious pop, he could even be three-quarters Piazza and carve himself out a big piece of the Mets’ promising future.