MILWAUKEE – The Brewers had the best first half in franchise history.
Let’s repeat that: The Brewers had the best first half in franchise history.
You only need to look at the standings for proof, and see the Brewers trail only the Dodgers by 1.5 games for the best record in baseball so far this season. The Rays are three back of the Brewers in the win column. The closest division team, the Cubs, are five games back.
- Record at the break: 59-37 (First in NL Central)
- Record at the break last year: 56-40 (Second in NL Central, one game back)
- Playoff odds: 98.2% per FanGraphs
- Remaining Strength of Schedule: .499 (17th in MLB)
It was worth that reminder because of the way the first half came to a crashing end in Pittsburgh, where the Brewers were swept by the Pirates in a Saturday doubleheader before getting blown out on Sunday. Over two tough days, lefty starter Kyle Harrison landed on the 15-day injured list with a sore elbow, veteran Brandon Woodruff moved to the 60-day IL in the first sign of the seriousness of his latest shoulder setback, and Jacob Misiorowski – the key to everything if the Brewers are to finally break through and make it back to the World Series – was scratched from his Sunday start because of arm fatigue.
It was a bad weekend that could echo all the way to the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline as the Brewers weigh whether to spend the sort of prospect capital it takes to land an impact starter.
“Inconsistent” is how manager Pat Murphy described his club’s first half. “I don't think we've underachieved, don't get me wrong. But in the world of the Milwaukee Brewers, the way it's been, I think there's an expectation of ‘overachieve.’ There's an expectation of excellence.
“We set the franchise record for the most wins in the first half? That sounds wonderful. It doesn't feel as wonderful, you know?”
The big question is how far the front office will go to help. Pitching is Milwaukee’s most immediate need, with Quinn Priester out for the year, Woodruff out for the foreseeable future, Harrison a question mark and Misiorowski approaching last year’s workload. But the Brewers are not an “all-in” type of team at the Trade Deadline – CC Sabathia in 2008 notwithstanding. Midseason deals don’t always work that way, since they require teams to part with years of a top prospect for maybe a dozen starts from a rental.
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Is Tarik Skubal of the Tigers enticing enough for the Brewers to divert from their cautious approach? Maybe, but the thought has been that to get it done will take a prospect package akin to what Milwaukee got for a full year of Freddy Peralta: an MLB-ready starter like Brandon Sproat and a Top 100 prospect like Jett Williams. And getting into that debate about value, one must ask whether the Tigers will even trade Skubal before Aug. 3.
The alternative approach is to make deals more like the ones the Brewers have in recent years, acquiring pitchers with upside beyond their numbers. Think Priester in 2025, Frankie Montas in 2024 or Jordan Lyles back in 2019. Fans may have scrunched their noses upon learning of those trades, but they wound up delivering some good innings.
“It was a good first half, but we’ve got to keep going,” Brewers second baseman Brice Turang said. “We know what this team can do, and we’re just trying to continue to touch that top level and just be the best team we can be. The first half was good, but there's room for improvement.”
Biggest need: Innings
Given the uncertainty about Woodruff and, to a lesser extent, Harrison, and the fact that Misiorowski is already within 31 innings of his total from last year in the Minors, Majors and postseason, the Brewers probably need to add starting depth. But with Sabathia in 2008 as the notable exception, they almost always prefer to build around the kind of young prospects it takes to land a high-profile rental. Is this the year they go for it?
Biggest chip: SS Luis Peña
The Brewers aren’t going to trade shortstop Cooper Pratt or outfielder Luis Lara after locking both into long-term contracts, and they aren’t going to trade the No. 1-ranked prospect in baseball in Jesús Made. Considering how deep they are at shortstop in the organization, it could make sense for them to move Peña, a five-tool player who is baseball’s No. 18 prospect, per MLB Pipeline. Trouble is, his value is down because of a health scare earlier this season, when Peña collapsed in the dugout. He’s played 32 Minor League games so far this year.
Key player for the second half: Misiorowski
The Brewers have never had a pitcher like him. Perhaps nobody has ever had a pitcher like him. And the whole case for Milwaukee as a World Series contender revolves around delivering the 24-year-old MLB leader in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP and batting average against to the postseason at full strength. That’s going to require some creativity in the coming months, beginning with what’s expected to be an extended breather over the All-Star break and into the second half. It’s going to be critical that the Brewers have enough pitching around Misiorowski to manage his workload leading up to October.
Determining Factor: How will they fare as frontrunners?
The Brewers are at their best as underdogs, which gets tricky when you’re a three-time defending division champion. But Murphy is the two-time defending NL Manager of the Year winner because he’s found the right buttons to push to get the most out of a scrappy roster that lacks the star power of league rivals like the Dodgers, Braves and Phillies. He’ll have to come up with something to keep this group playing hungry. A pair of week-long road trips to the West Coast in late July and early August will add to the level of difficulty.