Roman Anthony carried the burden of expectation that is attached to every No. 1 overall prospect with ease in 2025.
He finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting despite not breaking into the bigs until June and playing in just 71 games. His offense over 303 plate appearances was already 40% better than league average by OPS+, a standard met by only 12 qualified hitters that season. At just 21 years old, Anthony was already displaying the kind of pop and patience that linked him to Juan Soto.
Heading into 2026, the expectations only grew. Could Anthony be the AL MVP? Could he be considered the No. 1 player in the sport by year's end?
The hype train picked up even more steam after he competed for Team USA in the 2026 World Baseball Classic. In six games, Anthony batted .280 with a .920 OPS and a couple of home runs. The regular season began nine days after the end of the WBC, and Anthony enjoyed a three-hit game in a 3-0 Red Sox victory on his first MLB Opening Day.
And then the hype train got derailed.
Anthony batted just .229 with one homer and a .675 OPS through his first 30 games. He also missed four games during that opening stretch with back tightness. Then, in that 30th game, a fateful swing resulted in a partially torn tendon in a joint that connects Anthony's right ring finger to his wrist. He was placed on the injured list a few days later. Anthony didn't know it then, but all of those lofty preseason expectations were about to fly out the window.
After a period of rest, the pain in his hand hadn't subsided. There were setbacks. There was slow healing. We wouldn't see Anthony in an MLB game until the penultimate day of August. After nearly four months on the mend, Anthony had a decent September at the plate -- four homers and a .733 OPS across 23 games -- until he aggravated his injury during Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series against the Yankees. To make matters worse, he also suffered additional strains in his right wrist.
Anthony's forgettable season was done. Boston's season ended one day later as it was swept in the two-game series.
The 22-year-old's offseason recovery program will center around rest, with likely no surgery involved. That's one of the very few silver linings from his injury-marred year. There probably won't be many people forecasting an MVP or other lofty accolades for Anthony next season.
However, let's not be so quick to dismiss those possibilities.
Obviously, any chances that Anthony reaches the heights in 2027 that were predicted for him in '26 hinge on his right hand and wrist being fully healthy. Without that, nothing else matters.
But the qualities that made Anthony an overnight star in the big leagues in 2025 were generally evident this past season. About one year ago, MLB.com's Thomas Harrigan highlighted three ways in which Anthony already looks like a star.
In short, they were:
- Impressive plate discipline
- Strong contact quality
- Valuable defense
Anthony's defense did slip significantly, both in terms of outs above average and success rate added. So let's just focus on the offense, where things are still promising.
The plate discipline
Despite what had to be a frustrating year in multiple ways, patience remained a virtue for Anthony. He walked a stellar 12.0% clip, thanks in part to a 23.7% chase rate. That's an increase from 2025 (20.1%), but it still would have ranked around the 85th percentile in MLB if Anthony had enough plate appearances to qualify.
If anything, Anthony should take more hacks, especially at pitches right over the heart of the plate. For the second year in a row, his swing rate on "meatballs" -- middle-middle pitches -- was the lowest in MLB among hitters who saw at least 75 meatballs during the season. It was 51.6% in 2025 and 53.8% in '26. Relatedly: Anthony's 55.6% in-zone swing rate was the 11th lowest among 345 hitters who saw at least 400 in-zone pitches this past season.
The contact quality
And why should Anthony swing away more often? Because when bat meets ball, he can still do a lot of damage. Sure, his batted-ball metrics weren't quite at the level of '25, but they were still pretty dang good. The percentile rankings shown below are based on players with similar numbers since Anthony didn't accrue enough PAs in either year to be a qualified hitter.
2025 hard-hit rate: 60.3% (100th percentile)
2026 hard-hit rate: 46.6% (82nd percentile)
2025 barrel rate: 15.6% (93rd percentile)
2026 barrel rate: 11.7% (77th percentile)
2025 average exit velocity: 94.5 mph (98th percentile)
2026 average exit velocity: 92.0 mph (90th percentile)
And remember that those percentages were produced in a season where Anthony was healthy for just a few weeks. The back issue cropped up on April 21, the right hand injury followed two weeks later, and Anthony said his hand never felt 100% upon his return in August. Despite that, Anthony continued to showcase plus bat speed (75.6 mph on average) and upped his fast-swing rate from 51.9% to 54.6%.
Again, believing in a rebound season for the uber-talented Anthony requires the belief that a full offseason of rest will fully cure what ails him.
If it does, our expectations for Anthony in 2027 really shouldn't be too far off where they were eight or nine months ago.