TORONTO -- No matter how close the Blue Jays get to a winning record, that carrot just keeps dangling inches out of their grasp.
Tuesday’s 9-7 loss to the Astros was their most frustrating trip to the doorstep yet, an 11-inning battle that the Blue Jays had countless opportunities to turn into a pivot point for their season.
“Whenever you have a chance to win and you have the guys up you want, it’s frustrating,” said manager John Schneider. “It’s not for a lack of effort or compete, but that’s a frustrating one where you feel like you had multiple chances.”
Instead, they dip back down to one game below .500, still stuck in that magnetic pull they’ve been feeling since they last held a winning record on April 3.
This is what mattered most:
1. ONE PITCH AWAY
Old friend Joey Loperfido delivered the final blow in the 11th, but “friend” may be stretching it after that swing. The former Blue Jays outfielder, who was dealt to Houston for Jesús Sánchez back in Spring Training, launched a three-run homer to right field off Braydon Fisher, who was just one pitch away from escaping.
Fisher had already stranded the automatic runner in the top of the 10th and was about to do it again in the 11th, needing just one more strike in the 1-2 count to Loperfido. The Blue Jays’ bullpen was without Louis Varland, who was down Tuesday after a heavy workload recently. This same bullpen strain led to Tyler Rogers pitching the ninth, where he allowed two runs to send the game to extras.
2. VLAD WATCH: Frustrations show
You could see it bubbling up in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at different points Tuesday, first after his lineout to third base and later after he struck out on a high pitch to end the fourth inning. Guerrero could turn one of those bats into one thousand toothpicks if he wanted to, and it looked like he was awfully tempted for a moment.
Guerrero had a chance to win it in extras, too, but flew out to center field on the first pitch he saw in the 10th.
At this point, the eye test matters more than the metrics for Guerrero. Anyone reading this has likely watched hundreds, if not thousands, of Guerrero’s at-bats, including those 187 career home runs. We all know what it looks like when Guerrero flips his hips and fully unleashes his body through a swing, his upper body whipping around to produce power few others can. That’s just not what it looks like right now, with too many of Guerrero’s swings and at-bats still feeling a bit disjointed.
The Blue Jays are essentially playing .500 baseball right now while Vladdy has a .729 OPS. Turn that into a .900-plus OPS, which Guerrero is more than capable of, and we’re talking about a completely different ballclub, one over .500 and one with momentum. It’s really that simple, and until the face of the franchise catches fire again, the magnetic pull towards .500 will remain.
3. BACK TO BACK … TO BACK
Shane Bieber’s 2026 debut wasn’t pretty, allowing four earned runs on nine hits over just 3 2/3 innings in his first start back from the IL.
After Yainer Diaz and Cam Smith went deep in the fourth inning, Taylor Trammell launched the Astros’ third consecutive blast into the 500 Level in right field. That’s just the 25th time in the history of Rogers Centre (opened 1989) that a ball has been hit into the 500 Level.
This wasn’t just a rough patch for Bieber, either. The Astros hit him hard on Tuesday, many of their nine hits hard line drives to go along with some deep fly balls. Bieber allowed more balls hit over 100 mph (seven) than whiffs (six), which is no recipe for success.
“Not happy with it,” Bieber said. “I put the team behind the eight ball there from the get-go.”
It’s always going to be a fine line with a starter who throws in the low 90s, though, and Bieber’s fastball averaged 91.7 mph Tuesday. For most of his impressive career, he’s walked this line brilliantly, using pinpoint control and a deep arsenal of pitches to keep hitters just a bit off-balance at all times. Bieber has plenty of time to settle back in after such a long layoff, and his track record suggests he’ll do just that, but this is what it can look like when an opposing lineup gets too comfortable.