Now that we have made it through the All-Star break, it is time to get serious.
With the Trade Deadline less than three weeks away, decision time for several teams is nigh. Are they going to buy or sell? Those questions may not be easy to answer right now, but in the next 10 days, teams may get some real clarity — for better or for worse.
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• 2026 Trade Deadline: Aug. 3, 6 p.m. ET
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While the Mets and Phillies opened up the second half on Thursday night, Friday is the day when the season really revs back up. Here’s a look at five teams that have an extremely critical portion of the schedule coming up, with a lot on the line for both the course of their season and what it means for their franchise.
This was a pivotal season for each of them heading in: The next couple of weeks will point to which direction that season will go. (Playoff odds listed below are from FanGraphs, as of Thursday.)
Blue Jays
- Standings: 45-51, 2.5 G out of final AL Wild Card
- Playoff odds: 20.3%
- Upcoming series: 3 vs. CWS, 4 vs. TB, 3 at BOS
When the Blue Jays fell just short in the World Series last year — on multiple occasions! — this was their nightmare scenario: Being unable to recapture that magic, having not taken advantage of their best possible opportunity. Now they’re in last place in the AL East and in serious danger of missing the playoffs entirely.
So much went wrong for this team in the first half, but because much of the rest of the American League has continued to struggle as well (witness three other teams on this list), they’re still within shouting distance of the Wild Card. But they have an immensely difficult stretch right out of the break, hosting two first-place teams in the White Sox and Rays and then traveling to Fenway Park to play one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. This could be Toronto’s chance to salvage its season and avoid becoming Deadline sellers.
Orioles
- Standings: 46-51, 2 G out of final AL Wild Card
- Playoff odds: 21.9%
- Upcoming series: 3 at HOU, 3 at BOS, 3 vs. ATL
When the Orioles emerged three years ago after reconstructing their entire organization and dedicating themselves to building for the future, this is not exactly what they had in mind for 2026. A team that won 101 games and the AL East in 2023 – behind a young, exciting core – is five games under .500 at the break. The Orioles already changed managers after a disappointing 2025, and you have to wonder whether there could be more changes coming if this doesn’t get turned around.
This has been an odd team: Their starting pitching, which was supposed to be the weak spot, has been their strength. Yet the guys who were supposed to be their stars, namely Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Adley Rutschman and Coby Mayo, aren’t nearly what we all thought they’d be, at least at this point. The Orioles have played better of late, giving them a fighting chance, but that’s a brutal stretch they are facing to begin the second half. We will know who they are soon.
Padres
- Standings: 48-48, 3.5 G out of final NL Wild Card
- Playoff odds: 11.7%
- Upcoming series: 3 at KC, 4 at ATL, 3 at MIA
It was less than two months ago (May 23) that the Padres were 11 games over .500 and only a half-game behind the Dodgers in the NL West. They’d lose four in a row and 10 of 11 after that, and they’ve been trying to catch their breath ever since.
The issue with the Padres remains the struggles of their expensive veterans, the guys who are supposed to be the ones leading the way and instead are playing more like they’re aging faster than anyone saw coming. There are going to be some serious questions for this franchise if it doesn’t work out this year, which makes this upcoming 10-game road trip as critical as any in recent Padres history. If things go further south, there’s still a chance they trade Mason Miller, just one year after giving up an elite prospect to acquire him.
Red Sox
- Standings: 46-48, 0.5 G out of final AL Wild Card
- Playoff odds: 39.7%
- Upcoming series: 4 vs. TB, 3 vs. BAL, 3 vs. TOR
You can be forgiven if you had thought Boston was already out of this thing. It sure felt that way for most of this frustrating, injury-plagued season, until the Red Sox suddenly found their footing in July. By winning nine of their 10 games this month, heading into the break, they gave themselves hope in a season in which all had seemed lost.
Underlying metrics have long thought the Red Sox were better than their record — they have the fourth-best run differential in the American League — and in July, they finally showed it. Still, this was a team that was thought to be openly shopping Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Aroldis Chapman and others not long ago. Did they reverse everything that fast, that entirely? Coming out of the break, they have a perfect chance to prove it, with a 10-game homestand against division rivals.
Tigers
- Standings: 44-52, 3.5 G out of final AL Wild Card
- Playoff odds: 27.0%
- Upcoming series: 3 at LAA, 3 at CHC, 4 vs. KC
Ah, the Tigers. This is a team that, with its additions of Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander, looked like the class of the division in the offseason, even coming off a historic divisional collapse in 2025. Now, though, they’re a stunning eight games under .500 and in fourth place, albeit still only 6 1/2 games behind the first-place White Sox in the AL Central.
And yet there is still hope here, thanks in part to an AL-best 22-14 record since June 1, including 7-3 so far in July. (And also thanks to a division in which nobody has pulled away.) There’s no team on this list with more immediate urgency, thanks, of course, to Tarik Skubal’s pending free agency and his status as the ultimate gamechanger for any team at the Deadline. The Tigers have got a favorable first few series out of the break, facing the Angels and Royals, who are tied for MLB’s worst record. Going 5-5 in these next 10 probably isn’t going to do it: The Tigers need to win, and win a lot, immediately.