Gauging the Twins' need for rotation additions

January 16th, 2020

MINNEAPOLIS -- should be introduced as the newest member of the Minnesota Twins in the coming weeks, giving the Twins the impact free-agent signing they sought throughout the offseason.

It was a major move that, while still unofficial, undoubtedly made the club better on both offense and defense. But it still didn't fully address the Twins' greatest need and foremost priority entering the offseason, which was to find a significant upgrade for the starting rotation.

When Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel all turned their sights elsewhere, the Twins added and , who come with immediate upside -- particularly Hill -- but aren't long-term solutions that can help anchor this rotation through the team's opening window of contention.

As things currently stand, the Twins have , and Bailey locked into their Opening Day rotation, with eligible to return from his 60-game suspension in mid-May and Hill scheduled to recover from offseason surgery by June or July. In the meantime, some combination of , , and are likely to carry the Twins through.

That should be a solid rotation at full strength, and Berríos, Odorizzi, Pineda and Hill have the potential to carry the club through a possible postseason run. But there could still be some amount of risk in that group due to the lack of playoff experience and, in the case of Hill -- the only member of the group with significant October playing time -- the uncertainty that comes with a 40-year-old coming off arm surgery.

The reported signing of Donaldson mitigates that risk to a certain extent by bolstering the club's run creation to make up in part for the lack of run prevention that has been acquired so far this offseason. There's still room to upgrade this starting rotation, and the Twins could continue to explore the trade market to that extent between now and the Trade Deadline.

But with Donaldson in tow, is there still the same level of urgency to make such a move by Opening Day? Let's take a closer look at both sides to the argument.

THE CASE FOR ACTING NOW

Don't take the division for granted

The top of the American League Central is shaping up to be more competitive based on the aggressive moves made by the White Sox, who have now added Yasmani Grandal, Nomar Mazara, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Keuchel, Edwin Encarnación and Steve Cishek to a quickly advancing young core in a clear signal of their intent to compete for the division title. The Indians should also continue to be in the fold, anchored -- as always -- by a strong, young pitching staff.

Any worrying about the strength of a possible playoff rotation will be for naught if the Twins are shut out of October altogether. In the case that the Twins don't add another starter before Opening Day, what if Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer or Graterol can't continue their 2019 success and leave the Twins with half of a rotation that can succeed in March and April against a fortified White Sox team and a perennially strong Indians side? In that worst-case scenario, the Twins' uncertainty could leave them in an early hole.

Prices could go up at the Trade Deadline

Simply put, there's more urgency for various contenders to address their deficiencies at the Trade Deadline -- and trade partners with desirable assets know that. In the event that the Twins' starting rotation needs help at the Deadline to keep up with an offense built to win now, there could be a steeper prospect price to pay. That could come about for various reasons; say, the Twins' young arms aren't yet ready for increased exposure, or Hill doesn't come back from surgery as effectively as previously hoped.

Adding another arm long before then could keep the Twins' options more flexible down the stretch instead of exposing them to the possible risk of an overpay to address a clear need.

THE CASE FOR WAITING

This rotation is actually pretty good

No, the Twins didn't win a playoff game against the Yankees last October. No, the Twins didn't land a big arm in free agency. But still, it's easy to forget that this starting rotation should already be among the better groups in the league.

According to FanGraphs, the Twins' starters accumulated the fourth-highest WAR and fourth-best FIP in the AL last season behind the Astros, Indians and Rays. The Twins have since replaced Kyle Gibson and Martín Pérez with Bailey and Hill, while Pineda will not need another acclimation period from Tommy John surgery this time around before he's expected to return to his consistent 2019 form. Couple that with another year of progress for Berríos, Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer, and the Twins' rotation should already be primed for a step forward from its already lofty performance in '19 without any additional external help.

Young arms need their time, too

As things stand, the Twins should have a full complement of five experienced starting pitchers sometime late in the summer, once both Pineda and Hill have made their way back into the rotation. But in order for the Twins to take full advantage of their upcoming window of contention, they're going to need to develop and rely on their homegrown talent at some point instead of counting on the open market. Consider, for example, that every projected member of the starting lineup outside of Nelson Cruz and Donaldson came up through the Twins' organization.

With that in mind, Major League-ready arms like Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe need additional exposure to continue their development -- and that's not to mention the big wave of pitching talent that should arrive at some point this season in Graterol, , and . If the Twins fill up on starting pitchers too quickly, that could be to the detriment of the young arms that could benefit from early-season opportunities before being counted on to a greater extent next season, when Odorizzi, Bailey and Hill could all depart in free agency.

What's the big rush?

It's easy to look at the Twins' projected Opening Day rotation of Berríos, Odorizzi, Bailey and two youngsters and think that's far from an intimidating playoff rotation. But keep in mind: Championships are won in October, not March. It's obviously still important to win games early in the season, but the Twins' acquisition of Donaldson should give them more wiggle room to win games as the Twins better evaluate the improvement of their players and the needs of their roster before the true decision point comes in July.

That's what the Twins did last season, cobbling together a bullpen and trying out various Minor League fits before consolidating for the second half. They still won the division by a comfortable margin. With a better lineup, a better defense and a better bullpen on paper this year, they still look to be in solid position as a division favorite, even without an immediate trade for a pitcher.