Twins need to get creative for SP help

December 5th, 2019

MINNEAPOLIS -- Two of the top starters on the free-agent market agreed to new contracts on Wednesday -- and neither will be wearing a Twins uniform in 2020.

First came Cole Hamels, who agreed to a one-year, $18 million deal with the Braves. Two hours later, the Phillies won the Zack Wheeler sweepstakes with a five-year, $118 million commitment.

Even with the Winter Meetings in San Diego still several days away, this offseason has already seen some considerable movement in two of Minnesota's most significant areas of need, with two top starting pitchers and five catchers having already found new homes. Outside of Jake Odorizzi's return, the Twins, still in need of up to two solid starters, haven't gotten a piece of that action as the market quickly takes shape.

Both Wheeler and Hamels could have fit with Minnesota, for different reasons. Hamels, soon to turn 36, was unlikely to command a long-term deal and could have been an investment of the club's considerable payroll flexibility as a solid immediate contributor and a bridge to top prospects at or nearing the Majors like Brusdar Graterol and Jhoan Duran. Wheeler, 29, had the tools to serve as a solid partner to José Berríos atop the rotation throughout the Twins' opening window of contention.

MLB Network insider Jon Heyman reported on Wednesday that Minnesota was willing to make a five-year offer to Wheeler but ultimately fell short, with geographical considerations also coming into play for the right-hander, who reportedly preferred to remain on the East Coast. A competitive five-year offer to Wheeler would have blown away the Twins' previous largest commitment to a free-agent pitcher (four years, $54 million to Ervin Santana before the 2015 season).

So having missed on Wheeler but reportedly willing to spend aggressively on pitching -- backing up the claims of team leadership from the start of the offseason -- where do the Twins go from here?

With deep-pocketed teams like the Yankees, Angels and Dodgers reportedly vying for the services of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, it's natural that attention would turn next to the other two pitchers considered to be in the second tier of the market: Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu. The market for Bumgarner also appears to be moving quickly, as MLB.com's Mark Feinsand reported industry sentiment that the left-hander could also sign before the Winter Meetings.

The question, then, is: How badly does Minnesota need either Bumgarner or Ryu?

Bumgarner's postseason resume has no equal, and though his stats are no longer as elite as they were in his prime, he rebounded from shortened 2017 and '18 campaigns with 207 2/3 innings, increased velocity and a sharp spike in his spin rates during the '19 season. Ryu comes with a lengthier injury history, but finally healthy, his strong command led to a microscopic walk rate and the ERA title last season, when he posted a 2.32 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP.

MLB Trade Rumors estimates that Bumgarner will sign a four-year, $72 million contract, though that value will likely increase with the demand created by Wheeler's absence from the market. Ryu is projected to sign for three years and $54 million. Either would be within the range that the Twins were reportedly willing to offer Wheeler.

As far as proven impact pitchers go on the free-agent market, there exists a clear drop-off from that Bumgarner-Ryu tier to the following group, with Dallas Keuchel likely leading the pack ahead of the likes of Homer Bailey, Michael Pineda, Tanner Roark, Wade Miley and Brett Anderson, who would be next up according to their WAR from 2019 but would likely not be similarly transformative arms that could jolt Minnesota's rotation.

Trade options could certainly materialize throughout the offseason, either for a cheap, controllable pitcher (think Matthew Boyd, should the Tigers be willing) or for a more expensive veteran from a team like the Red Sox that is actively looking to cut down on payroll this offseason. The Twins have the payroll space to spare, but they would also need to part ways with prospect capital for pitchers whose resumes might not stack up to those of Bumgarner or Ryu.

All the while, the urgency mounts.

The White Sox have been one of the most active teams this offseason and clearly think they can be a factor in the division, with long-term deals already in place for Yasmani Grandal and José Abreu as they also aggressively compete with the Twins for the top starters remaining on the market. And even if the Indians do trade Corey Kluber or Francisco Lindor, their seemingly never-ending pipeline of starting pitchers will march on behind Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale.

With all that in mind, how aggressive is Minnesota willing to get in its pursuit of Bumgarner or Ryu? It might not take long to find out.