What's next for Twins after Cruz trade?

July 24th, 2021

MINNEAPOLIS -- With Nelson Cruz getting moved to the Rays on Thursday, the expected Trade Deadline activity of the 2021 Twins officially got underway.

What comes next?

It goes to figure that others on expiring contracts will join Cruz out the door, with the Twins trying to gather as much value as possible in return for Hansel Robles, Michael Pineda and Andrelton Simmons. (Alex Colomé and J.A. Happ are also bound for free agency but have likely played themselves out of any significant trade value with their down seasons.)

But there was never really any question of that. The more pressing question, then, is whether the Twins will also part ways with players who have a year of remaining team control for bigger returns -- José Berríos, Byron Buxton, Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey -- which would signify a bigger rebuild instead of a simple one-year retooling.

And at this point, the answer appears to be leaning towards "no."

"Some good young players have come along and impacted us this year, and we think are going to be part of the future," president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said on MLB Network. "The likes of Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers and others. We feel there's a good group coming from the Minor Leagues, and a good group already in place for '22 and we look forward to getting back competing again as soon as possible."

The return the Twins got from the Rays for Cruz appears to support the idea that Minnesota could hold on to the likes of Berríos, Buxton, Rogers and Duffey to arm for another push in the division next season, in the hope that the struggles of '21 mark just a one-year bump in the road.

Those two right-handers -- Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman -- were both top-20 prospects in Tampa Bay's system and will slot in as the No. 6 (Ryan) and No. 13 (Strotman) prospects in Minnesota's organization as they both move to spots on Triple-A St. Paul's roster. They could both join the Minnesota rotation as soon as this fall, and their proximity to the Majors means they could be ready to help the Twins in a meaningful capacity in 2022.

"To get two upper-level pitchers who we think are Triple-A, Major League-level in the context of a player obviously as great as Nelson, who is expiring at the end of this year, was just a really good outcome," Falvey said.

Considering the Twins will likely lose Pineda and Happ from this season's rotation, and the fact that Bailey Ober and Griffin Jax have had shaky transitions to the bigs, having more high-profile, young pitching options will go a long way in building out a cost-controlled, yet effective, starting rotation for '22 and the years to come.

The Twins feel that their lineup will be ready to compete at a high level next season, with most of their top young prospects -- Larnach, Kirilloff and Jeffers -- gaining a significant amount of Major League experience as part of the club's overall struggles in 2021. Even with those players acclimating to the big leagues, the Twins' 103 wRC+ as a team still ranks ninth in the Majors this season -- and they'll look for that to improve.

The problem this year has been pitching, as Minnesota ranked fourth-worst in the Majors in ERA entering Friday. But if the Twins can continue to accumulate even lottery ticket arms at or near the Major League level who could help build out the depth in the rotation and bullpen and bring the pitching staff to even near MLB-average, that could go a long way in helping this team bounce back.

So, as the Twins continue to navigate the Trade Deadline as sellers, look for more of those kinds of additions on the pitching staff along with, potentially, some middle infield or utility help, which is a thin area on the roster as currently constructed, with the Twins seemingly indicating that they believe they can rebound sooner rather than later.

"Our view is that we are going to continue to build and try and compete," Falvey said. "I talked about sustainability and we've been able to do that the last few years, and we think we can sustain it going forward."

As for the likes of Berríos? Rival executives indicated to MLB.com's Mark Feinsand earlier this week that they consider the right-hander unlikely to be dealt given Minnesota's asking price -- another indication that the Twins will need to be wowed to move a piece that could help them in 2022.

And with regards to that group as a whole -- Berríos, Buxton, Rogers and Duffey -- Falvey's public tone has certainly indicated that, too.

"We feel like that group is a big part of our core," Falvey said. "So my job is to always take phone calls and make sure we never turn it off and listen to everything that's discussed from team to team, but for us, it's a really high bar to move guys that we think are going to be a big part of competing again for another American League Central division championship."