With WC heartbreak in rearview, where do Blue Jays go from here?

October 10th, 2022

TORONTO -- There’s no softening what happened Saturday in Toronto.

The Blue Jays’ 10-9 loss to the Mariners, which ended their season, is the type of loss that doesn’t fade with time. Up 8-1 in the fifth inning before one of the biggest collapses in postseason history, there’s a long list of questions facing this team once you can get past No. 1: What just happened?

The path forward is now more interesting than we could have expected. With so few pending free agents and all of the club’s stars locked up, this roster could return with a very similar look in 2023. Does the front office believe that the same group can get it done with a bounce going its way, or does something need to change from the ground up? Additions will be made, but for the Blue Jays to move past this, the core needs to lead the way.

Days of the “young core” are done. This is a team that’s expected to win, and that core has expanded beyond Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette to include George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah and others. With an array of experience levels, though, the loss to the Mariners needs to be the cruel heartbreak that launches the Blue Jays forward, not the sign of a design flaw.

Gausman, the 10-year veteran with four years remaining on his five-year, $110 million deal, pulled the curtain back on that a bit.

“I think some of these young guys don't necessarily know exactly what it takes to play 162,” Gausman said, “and to play as much as Bo and George and Vladdy and all those guys play. Obviously, George is a veteran, but I think those guys learned a lot from each other. I know Bo learns a lot from George. Vladdy is just kind of a different animal. He wants to be out there every single day. So does Bo.”

This isn't criticism from Gausman, but insight that comes only with time. So many young players share an obsession with “outworking” opponents, but the more you play in September and October, the more value you see in pacing.

“You kind of got to back those guys off because they just love baseball so much,” Gausman added. “They just want to do more and more. I think the evolution for them is finding out ways to get their work in that's not as beating up their body. Maybe instead of 100 swings a day, maybe it's 50 sometimes. I don't know. I'm a pitcher, so I'm just kind of looking at some of the veteran guys that I played with who had long careers.”

Postseason baseball is about playing clean and tight, too. It’s a matter of who blinks first, and while the Blue Jays had stretches in 2022 where they looked playoff-ready, championship teams make that their normal.

The numbers can improve, too. If Bichette plays in 2023 like he did in September, he’s a genuine superstar. It’s Guerrero, though, who has the power to change the direction of his franchise at any moment.

Guerrero hit .274 with 32 home runs and an .818 OPS in 2022. For most players, that’s a career year. For Guerrero, it’s a letdown, living in the shadow of his massive ’21 campaign that only missed an MVP Award because of Shohei Ohtani’s historic season. Even if Guerrero can split the middle, hitting 40 home runs with a .900 OPS, that’s multiple wins added for the Blue Jays.

To do that, Guerrero will need to lift the ball in the air. He’ll need some help, too, but liked the core Toronto expects to return.

“I'll always focus on what I can do, trying to help my teammates on everything,” Guerrero said through a club translator. “I work hard, go out there, do the best we can to get a win. The other things, I just let the front office take care of that.”

Bichette said that he knows there will be “growing pains” on this path, and that’s natural. So many great teams, even dynasties, taste heartbreak before getting over the top. The talent is there and this organization should have the assets to add more, so it’s a matter of pointing that talent in a better direction. John Schneider should earn more opportunities at this, too, with a decision on his “interim” tag coming.

“My message going forward into the offseason is, as much as it sucks right now, it will make that group better,” Schneider said.

If Schneider's right, that needs to start at the core and work its way out.