CHICAGO -- The Cubs’ first half this season was filled with extreme peaks and valleys. Injuries piled up throughout the pitching staff, the offense went through a deep lineup-wide slump through May, and the North Siders did all they could to weather and withstand all the obstacles.
Even with everything that has been thrown at the Cubs, they head into the second phase of the regular season atop the National League Wild Card standings and still within range of chasing down the division-leading Brewers. The next few weeks are especially important with the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline offering a chance to bolster the roster.
- Record at the break: 54-42 (2nd in NL Central, five games back)
- Record at the break last year: 57-39 (1st in NL Central, one game up)
- Playoff odds: 76.9%
- Remaining Strength of Schedule: .521 (3rd-hardest in MLB)
“It has been a really up-and-down season,” said Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer earlier this month. “There’s no reason to think that’s the way the rest of the season is going to go. We could just proceed to level things out. And I hope we do.”
The Cubs’ season so far can be broken into three parts:
Opening Day-May 8: 27-12 record
May 9-June 10: 7-22 record
June 11-All-Star break: 20-8 record
During that first segment, the Cubs had one incredible 20-3 run that featured a pair of 10-game winning streaks. That was soon followed by a 10-game losing streak during a period in which the offense slumped. And then heading into the break, a Chicago offense fueled by Pete Crow-Armstrong’s move to the leadoff spot sparked a steady climb back up the standings.
“Look, the great thing about baseball,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said, “is that you get to come here every day and kind of write a different story if you don't like the one that's been played out so far. And so I think everybody can look forward to that, and look forward to trying to get better and improve and contribute. That’s the goal.”
If the Cubs’ recent run of winning continues in the coming weeks, it could influence how Hoyer and his front-office team tackles the Deadline.
Chicago has some arms on the injured list and due for second-half returns (Jameson Taillon and Edward Cabrera in the rotation, plus Daniel Palencia in the bullpen, among others), but the club needs pitching across the board. It could come in the form of an impact starter or a late-inning reliever, or a series of smaller moves aimed at building up depth.
“This is a really important stretch,” Hoyer said. “The market will dictate a lot of those things, but of course, our play is going to dictate a level of aggressiveness -- and needs -- as well.”
Biggest need
The veteran-laden position-player group is fairly rigid and locked in -- whether by roles or contracts -- so adding arms was always going to be the focus. That has only become more clear throughout this ‘26 campaign. Losing Cade Horton to season-ending right elbow surgery in April was the first of many blows to the rotation, and the bullpen has also seen a long list of injury setbacks. The North Siders will be looking for reinforcements on both fronts.
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Biggest chip
Matt Shaw does not currently have a consistent home on the field for the Cubs, but he is a former first-rounder (2023) who is still just 24 years old and has a solid early track record in the Majors. With Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman all locked into Chicago’s infield spots, Shaw has worked as a super sub (mostly in the outfield) in ‘26. While the Cubs are not looking to trade him, teams with a need in the infield will surely ask about Shaw’s availability.
Key player for second half
The Cubs entered the year with high hopes for Palencia, but injuries have limited the hard-throwing righty to 19 games and 16 2/3 innings so far. The bullpen has lacked a consistent end point as a result, as evidenced by 10 pitchers notching at least one save so far. Palencia was a force as the Cubs’ closer in ‘25 and then an impact, multi-inning fireman in the playoffs. He starred for Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic, too. Getting him healthy for the stretch run could do wonders for the ‘pen.
Determining factor
The Cubs will be going after pitching at the Deadline, but the level of aggressiveness is what will be important. Will Chicago be targeting depth, or might the team make a big swing for an elite arm? It could depend on how much ground the Cubs gain in the division race between now and the Deadline. If the North Siders feel like a first-round bye in the playoffs is more realistically within range, that could move the needle from building blocks to blockbuster.