We’re less than two months away from the Draft now, with high school playoffs rolling on and colleges in conference tournament play. It might have been efficient to do this week’s mock draft in person at the SEC Tournament in Alabama, because it felt that pretty much every scouting director I touched base with for this projection provided a response that included some version of, “Sorry it took me a while; I’m at the SEC Tourney.”
While we are far from having a truly clear picture of the first round, one thing there appears to be consensus around the scouting industry is that the list of players the White Sox are looking at is at four: UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, Texas high school shortstop Grady Emerson, Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey and Florida prep shortstop Jacob Lombard.
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Cholowsky continues to be the favorite to land in that top position, and there was no reason to veer from that course in this projection. The top five this go-round are the same names -- in a very slightly different order -- as what Jim Callis laid out in our first mock of the spring two weeks ago.
Things get murky pretty quickly after that, with pick No. 7 (Orioles) one of the first spots scouts are pointing at as where things could start changing from “chalk” based on our Top 150 rankings. One of the biggest things contributing to a lack of certainty has to be the question marks surrounding college pitching, usually a demographic that floats up as the Draft approaches. But a combination of injuries and uneven performances have made that group a bit of a mystery outside of Santa Barbara’s Jackson Flora.
Like last time, we’ve projected all 25 picks in the first round, as well as the top choices for the five teams (Mets, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays, Dodgers) that moved down 10 spots in the Draft order because they exceeded the second surcharge threshold of competitive-balance tax last season.
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1. White Sox: Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA (No. 1)
The White Sox are doing due diligence by continuing to scout those four players heavily, though most believe it will be Cholowsky, the favorite all year who is hitting .330/.465/.684 with 21 homers ahead of the Big 10 Tournament, or Emerson from the high school ranks.
2. Rays: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth (Texas) Christian HS (No. 2)
Cholowsky and Emerson have separated themselves as the top two players in the class. The Rays can react to what the White Sox do. Sure, they’d be happy to get Cholowsky, but they’d also be ecstatic in nabbing Emerson here.
3. Twins: Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara (No. 4)
Assuming Cholowsky and Emerson go in the top two spots, it’s looking like the Twins’ top choices will be from the college ranks. The bat would be Lackey, and the arm would be Flora, who continues to lead NCAA Division I pitchers in ERA (1.03), while standing second in opponent OPS (.451) and batting average against (.163).
4. Giants: Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep, Miami (No. 7)
It’s way too early for there to be any kind of a slam dunk, but a lot of teams feel that if Lombard, son of former big leaguer George and brother of Yankees prospect George Jr., doesn’t land in the top spot as a bit of a money-saver, this is the place he most likely he comes off the board.
5. Pirates: Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech (No. 3)
The Pirates have drafted the best high school position player (Konnor Griffin) and best high school pitcher (Seth Hernandez) in the last two Drafts. If they wanted to go down that road again they could look at Eric Booth Jr. on the hitter side, or Gio Rojas on the mound, but it would be tough to pass on the super-athletic Lackey, the Yellow Jackets’ catcher with a 1.265 OPS, 15 homers and 14 steals.
6. Royals: Eric Booth Jr., OF, Oak Grove HS, Hattiesburg, Miss. (No. 6)
In this scenario, the Royals could be deciding between the top two prep players on the board. Booth, one of the fastest players in the Draft but also with some serious power potential, has jumped up to join the top six in the class talent-wise.
7. Orioles: Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech (No. 8)
As mentioned above, this could be right around the area where things get wonky, with a team like the Orioles starting to look at money-saving deals since things seem so uncertain after that top six. The O’s have taken a college hitter first in six of the last seven Drafts, and Burress has a strong track record of success in the ACC, with 44 homers over his first two seasons and a .363/.473/.650 line with 13 more home runs this spring.
8. Athletics: Chris Hacopian, 2B, Texas A&M (No. 12)
It might seem like the easy choice to go with a college bat with the A’s here, given that they’ve taken one in three of the last four Drafts and, when healthy, two of them make up half of the current big league infield. Catcher Ryder Helfrick and Hacopian, who has battled injuries but has good data backing up his performance, could be two of the main options.
9. Braves: Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS, Parkland, Fla. (No. 10)
The Braves haven’t picked this high since they nabbed Shea Langeliers in 2019; could history repeat itself with Helfrick? For now, we’ll have them go the prep route and take Rojas, the best high school arm in the class, like they did when they selected Cam Caminiti in 2024.
10. Rockies: Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas (No. 16)
Helfrick is the best defensive backstop in the class and is advanced in all areas behind the dish. He’s also hit 30 homers over the last two seasons at Arkansas.
11. Nationals: Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama (No. 5)
Lebron has become one of the most polarizing players in this class because of his uneven performance, particularly in SEC play. But there are still many teams above and behind the Nats who will look at him closely because he’s as tooled-out as anyone this year.
12. Angels: Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida (No. 14)
Peterson’s performance hasn’t always matched his stuff, which misses plenty of bats. He has frontline starter potential and based on repertoire alone, belongs in the conversation about top college arms in the class.
13. Cardinals: Derek Curiel, OF, Louisiana State (No. 15)
It feels like the Cardinals are leaning college here, and they could consider returning-from-injury pitcher Cameron Flukey. Curiel’s power hasn’t come along, but he hits for average, gets on base and can play a solid center field. This is a spot where reclassified two-way player Jared Grindlinger could come into play, with St. Louis perhaps preferring him as a hitter.
14. Marlins: A.J. Gracia, OF, Virginia (No. 11)
Gracia transferred to Virginia from Duke and has hit .337 with 14 homers and more walks than strikeouts. The bat will have to carry him because teams are concerned about his arm and where it can play defensively. Flukey and Cade Townsend could be college arm options here.
15. Diamondbacks: Jared Grindlinger, OF/LHP, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS (No. 49)
While Mr. Callis got feedback that teams were now honing in on Grindlinger as a hitter, I think there is still quite the debate raging over which side teams think he has more upside on. The good news for the D-backs is that they’ve long liked left-handed hitters in the Draft while also being associated with hunting for left-handed pitching … so Grindlinger can let them get two birds with one stone.
16. Rangers: Bo Lowrance, 3B, Christ Church Espiscopal HS, Greenville, S.C. (No. 50)
Teams around here are trying to figure out how Lowrance, a bit of a late riser, fits with the other high school bats available, and he still might land later on in the first round, but he is being heavily scouted around this area. This could be the potential floor for Lebron.
17. Astros: Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky (No. 23)
The Astros haven’t always had a first-round pick over the past several years, but when they have, they’ve typically used it to take a college bat (Xavier Neyens broke a streak of five straight times). Bell has played through a torn left labrum and still managed to hit .352 with a 1.119 OPS for the Wildcats.
18. Reds: Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina (No. 13)
A rib stress fracture sidelined the 6-foot-6 Flukey for 10 weeks and he’s just ramping back up; otherwise he could’ve been an easy top 10 pick. His May 15 start (4 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K) could be a sign that he’s on the upswing again and could be gone by this spot.
19. Guardians: Sawyer Strosnider, OF, Texas Christian (No. 9)
There are questions that need to be answered about Strosnider, starting with an ankle injury that kept him out of the lineup to start the Big 12 Tournament but also including concerns about swing-and-miss as well as chase. But his huge raw power from the left side should be enticing for a number of teams.
20. Red Sox: Brody Bumila, LHP, Bishop Feehan HS, Attleboro, Mass. (No. 22)
Leaning into the “don’t miss the guy in your own backyard” idea here. Bumila has been racing up boards thanks to high-octane and unhittable heat from a 6-foot-9 frame. He’s been very fastball-heavy, but did show off more changeups and sliders in his most recent start.
21. Padres: Aiden Ruiz, SS, The Stony Brook (N.Y.) School (No. 38)
Ruiz has a really high floor because of his elite-level defense at shortstop. He makes a ton of contact and has a solid approach; talk of added strength and a bit more raw power on display could have teams in this area intrigued.
22. Tigers: Trevor Condon, OF, Etowah HS, Woodstock, Ga. (No. 30)
That’s right, another sub-six foot, left-handed-hitting high schooler. Condon might not be quite the pure hitter Kevin McGonigle is, but he could be a 60-grade bat with nearly elite speed that plays on the bases and in center field.
23. Cubs: Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Tennessee (No. 43)
The Cubs have taken a college bat in each of the last three first rounds after going back-to-back college arms in 2021 and 2022. After riding a very hot streak in SEC play to land in first-round conversations, Kuhns has been a bit up-and-down over his last three starts, though he did strike out 15 in seven shutout innings against Texas in between two rougher outings, and he could cement his place with strong starts in postseason play.
24. Mariners: Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas (No. 18)
This could be low for the Arkansas lefty considering how many bats he’s missed in SEC play (83 in 59 2/3 IP) and his overall 13.4 K/9 rate for the year, but he has a long injury history (just 1 2/3 IP over his first two years in college) to contend with.
25. Brewers: Eric Becker, SS, Virginia (No. 19)
The Brewers tend to like hitters in the first round -- they’ve taken just one arm with their first selection over the last 11 Drafts -- and if they wanted to go the college route (which they often do), there are some choices. Joining Becker on a potential list could be Chris Rembert (Auburn), Ace Reese (Mississippi State) or Zion Rose (Louisville).
Top selections for teams not included above
27. Mets: Carson Bolemon, LHP, Southside Christian HS, Simpsonville, S.C. (No. 17)
35. Yankees: Zion Rose, OF, Louisville (No. 29)
36. Phillies: Mason Edwards, LHP, Southern California (No. 36)
39. Blue Jays: Cade Townsend, RHP, Mississippi (No. 21)
40. Dodgers: Kaden Waechter, RHP, Jesuit HS, Tampa, Fla. (No. 44)