When the Baseball Writers' Association of America announces the Rookie of the Year winners next Monday, Nick Kurtz almost certainly will capture the American League award by sweeping the first-place votes. Drake Baldwin may do the same in the National League, marking the sixth time both circuits have had unanimous honorees and the first since Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson in 2023.
Determining which of 2025's graduated rookies will have the most career value isn't nearly as obvious. We've projected the long-term production of rookies every year since 2015, based on much more than present-year performance. Past track record and future projection also matter, the age at which a player reaches the big leagues correlates strongly to his success and the fragility of pitchers is another factor.
Kurtz clearly had the best 2025 season. Baldwin became a regular for the Braves at seasonal age 24 -- making him one of the older players on our list below -- and plays catcher, a position that doesn't lend itself to longevity. We gave the nod instead to Roman Anthony, the youngest player (age 21) in our rankings and also the No. 1 prospect in baseball before he joined the Red Sox.
Only players who have graduated from rookie/prospect status by exceeding 130 at-bats, 50 innings or 45 days of active service time during the regular season were considered. Orioles catcher Samuel Basallo (MLB No. 7), Mets right-hander Nolan McLean (MLB No. 11) and Pirates righty Bubba Chandler (MLB No. 14) are the three most prominent Top 100 prospects who neared those guidelines without surpassing them. Blue Jays postseason hero Trey Yesavage (MLB No. 26) worked just 14 regular-season innings, so he didn't make the cut either.
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Our long-term rookie rankings, with seasonal age in parentheses:
1. Roman Anthony, OF, Red Sox (age 21)
Before he went down with a left oblique strain, Anthony slashed .292/.396/.463 with eight homers and 40 walks in 71 games. He became the third-youngest player in AL/NL history (behind Hall of Famers Mel Ott and Ted Williams) to homer and draw four walks in the same game, and he matched Teddy Ballgame as the only Red Sox players to reach base 82 times in their first 50 contests.
2. Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics (age 22)
Some scouts thought Kurtz offered the best combination of swing decisions, contact and exit velocities in the 2024 Draft and the A's rated him No. 1 on their Draft board before grabbing him with the No. 4 pick. He justified that faith by equaling José Abreu for the highest OPS+ (173) and posting the third-highest slugging percentage (.619) and sixth-highest OPS (1.002) among AL/NL rookies ever with 450 plate appearances. On July 25, he became the first rookie to hit four homers in one game and the second big leaguer to do so while going 6-for-6 in the same contest.
3. Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics (age 23)
Since 1900, only eight rookies who played primarily at shortstop exceeded Wilson's .311 average (third in the AL) this season -- including Hall of Famers Derek Jeter, Joe Sewell and Arky Vaughan. Wilson also topped the Junior Circuit with an 8 percent strikeout rate and joined Ron Hansen (1960) as the only rookie shortstops ever to start an All-Star Game.
4. Chase Burns, RHP, Reds (age 22)
Burns struck out the first five batters he faced in his big league debut -- on a 93 mph slider, 99 mph fastball, 91 mph slider (Aaron Judge), 92 mph changeup and 88 mph slider -- a feat that hasn't been accomplished by any other starting pitcher since the expansion era began in 1961. He fanned 67 in 43 1/3 innings overall, giving him the highest strikeout rate ever (13.9 per nine innings) for a rookie primary starter who worked at least that many innings.
5. Cade Horton, RHP, Cubs (age 23)
After the All-Star break, Horton went 8-1 with a 1.03 ERA in 12 starts, limiting hitters to a .154 average while compiling a 54/15 K/BB ratio in 61 1/3 innings. His ERA, average-against and WHIP (0.78) ranked first in MLB among pitchers with that many innings.
6. Marcelo Mayer, 3B, Red Sox (age 22)
Mayer had to learn a new position on the fly and played just 44 games before tearing cartilage in his right wrist, so his .228/.272/.402 line only hints at his upside. The consensus best player available and the fourth overall pick in the 2021 Draft, he gives off Corey Seager vibes at the plate.
7. Colson Montgomery, SS/3B, White Sox (age 23)
Montgomery struggled at Triple-A throughout 2024 and in the first half of 2025, then came to Chicago and swatted 21 homers in 71 games. Among rookies who played at least that much, he ranks ninth in homers per game (.30) and 10th in home run percentage (8.2 percent) -- and first among rookie shortstops in both categories.
8. Roki Sasaki, RHP, Dodgers (age 23)
Sasaki surpassed Shohei Ohtani's high school and pro fastball velocity records in Japan while also developing the best splitter some scouts ever have seen. He didn't live up to expectations in his U.S. debut and missed four months with a shoulder impingement, though he also contributed to a World Series championship with three saves and an 0.84 ERA in nine postseason appearances. This ranking feels both too low based on how he performed with the Chiba Lotte Mariners and too high based on how he looked with the Dodgers.
9. Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Brewers (age 23)
Misiorowski set a record for fewest big league games (five) before making the All-Star Game, a tribute to his otherworldly stuff. He had the second-highest average fastball (99.3 mph) and changeup (92.3) velocity among starters who worked at least 60 innings, and the best average slider (94.1) and curveball velo (87.1) among anyone who pitched that much in any role. His elite extension and the shapes of his pitches make them even nastier, and his long-term ceiling and role will depend on whether he can maintain decent control.
10. Drake Baldwin, C, Braves (age 24)
Baldwin is one of nine rookie catchers to post a 126 or better OPS+ in a season with at least 400 plate appearances. The rest of the group totaled 51 All-Star Game appearances and includes two Hall of Famers in Carlton Fisk and Mike Piazza as well as two more Cooperstown possibilities in Buster Posey and Thurman Munson.
11. Kyle Teel, C, White Sox (age 23)
Teel put up similar numbers to Baldwin (.273/.375/.411, 121 OPS+ vs. .274/.341/.358, 126 OPS+) and he's a year younger and more athletic, though less polished defensively.
12. Matt Shaw, 3B, Cubs (age 23)
Shaw played as well as any NL third baseman -- rookie or otherwise -- after the All-Star break, batting .258/.317/.522 with 11 homers in 63 games while providing solid defense.
13. Cole Young, 2B, Mariners (age 21)
The second-youngest player behind only Anthony on this list, Young looked over his head at times as a 21-year-old big leaguer but still profiles as a plus hitter with 15-20 homers per year and quality defense at the keystone.
14. Dylan Crews, OF, Nationals (age 23)
Crews had a puzzling .208/.280/.352 season marred by an oblique strain but the No. 2 overall choice in the 2023 Draft still shows the potential for solid or better tools across the board.
15. Luke Keaschall, 2B, Twins (age 22)
Keaschall showed off his pure hitting ability by slashing .302/382/.445 in 49 games and would rank higher if he were a better defender more likely to remain in the infield.
The next 25:
16. Kristian Campbell, 2B, Red Sox (age 23)
17. Jasson Domínguez, OF, Yankees (age 22)
18. Jac Caglianone, OF/1B, Royals (age 22)
19. Cam Schlittler, RHP, Yankees (age 24)
20. Luis Morales, RHP, Athletics (age 22)
21. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Tigers (age 22)
22. Cam Smith, OF, Astros (age 22)
23. Jordan Lawlar, INF, Diamondbacks (age 22)
24. Chase Dollander, RHP, Rockies (age 23)
25. Daylen Lile, OF, Nationals (age 22)
26. Edgar Quero, C, White Sox (age 22)
27. Christian Moore, OF, Angels (age 22)
28. Jakob Marsee, OF, Marlins (age 24)
29. Coby Mayo, 1B, Orioles (age 23)
30. Dalton Rushing, C, Dodgers (age 24)
31. Grant Taylor, RHP, White Sox (age 23)
32. C.J. Kayfus, OF/1B, Guardians (age 23)
33. Agustín Ramírez, C/DH, Marlins (age 23)
34. Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Braves (age 23)
35. Troy Melton, RHP, Tigers (age 24)
36. Carlos Narváez, C, Red Sox (age 26)
37. Chandler Simpson, OF, Rays (age 24)
38. Jack Leiter, RHP, Rangers (age 25)
39. Caleb Durbin, 3B, Brewers (age 25)
40. Braxton Ashcraft, RHP, Pirates (age 25)