When the Cubs signed Alex Bregman to a five-year, $175 million contract this offseason, the move could hardly have been more celebrated by the fan base.
It came after a failed pursuit of the All-Star a year ago and would seemingly replace the void left by Kyle Tucker’s departure, not only in offensive prowess but also in leadership and defense, both valued highly by the Cubs’ front office. There were high marks for timing, too, with the news breaking as the Chicago Bears mounted a wild playoff comeback to topple the rival Green Bay Packers.
Just over a month into the 2026 season, Bregman hasn’t produced as anticipated. He owns a .233/.328/.333 slash line with just three home runs. He’s slightly below league average in overall production with a 91 Weighted Runs Created Plus.
Of course, the Cubs haven’t needed him yet. The lineup is cruising pretty much everywhere else, leading to two separate 10-game win streaks and 15 straight wins at Wrigley Field. And Bregman’s had his moments, such as a clutch pinch-hit RBI single on April 28 against the Padres.
But at the level of commitment the Cubs made to Bregman entering his age-32 season, fans are fairly expecting more from the superstar third baseman.
Can he turn it around? There’s reason to believe the answer is yes, and we’ll show you why.
We’ll start with the good news. Bregman is hitting the ball hard (95 mph exit velocity or higher) a lot. His 44.2% hard-hit rate is above both his career average (38.7%) and the MLB average (37%).
Long known to be patient at the plate, take his walks and strike out infrequently, Bregman is still doing those things. The K’s have ticked up slightly (16.9%), but his chase rate (19.1%) and walk rate (12%) remain quite strong.
Bregman is also pulling the ball in the air a healthy 22.5% of the time, something that should play well at Wrigley, especially if the wind cooperates a bit more often throughout the summer.
So here’s the bad news. Like we already mentioned: The numbers aren’t there.
His Expected Weighted On-base Average is roughly league average at .322, a bit below his career mark of .347. There just isn’t any power yet.
One culprit? Bregman is hitting the ball on the ground too much. A 43.4% ground-ball rate would be the worst of his career over a full season and is fairly significantly above his career 36% average. Expectedly, his average launch angle (14.8 degrees) is down almost three full degrees from his career average of 17.7.
Furthermore, despite Bregman pulling the ball in the air -- a good thing -- at a high clip, his distribution of batted balls in the air is worrisome. He’s popping the ball up 3.1% more often and is driving fly balls 8.2% less frequently than he has across his career.
Bregman’s whiff rate is also up a bit, at 18.5% from 15% in his career. He’s perhaps gotten too patient at the dish, with his swing rate on pitches in the zone down to 55.9% -- 6% lower than his career rate. He’s also making slightly less contact on pitches in the zone.
You might not be surprised to hear, then, that breaking balls have given Bregman the most fits in 2026. He has just a .208 xwOBA and .204 xSLG on breaking pitches. He’s seeing them more often than he ever has in his career, too, with 2026’s 38.7% rate more than 6% higher than any other season in his 11 years in the big leagues.
Perhaps the fix is to be more aggressive on the breaking ball (or more aggressive in general, considering that diminished in-zone swing rate). Bregman is swinging at breakers that catch the strike zone almost 11% less than he did in 2025. And to make a bad trend worse, he’s whiffing on those pitches 6% more often than a year ago, when he picked up his third All-Star nod.
To conclude: Bregman is still doing a lot of things very well. His hard-hit rate portends better results, and he’s providing quality plate appearances by taking walks and minimizing strikeouts.
He’s also still crushing fastballs, as he’s done for most of his career. Those results could stand to get even better, too, with a .398 slugging percentage on fastballs well below a .459 xSLG.
Bregman just needs to start lifting the ball a bit more, and he’ll need to hit breaking balls more frequently. But we’re still just 41 games into the Cubs’ 2026 season, and there are 11 years worth of high-level success -- on top of some good underlying metrics -- that suggest Bregman will get there.