There’s perhaps nothing more quintessentially Pete Crow-Armstrong than the Cubs’ young star mashing a home run a projected 444 feet at 114.6 mph as fans of the rival Cardinals chanted that he was overrated.
That long ball was part of a 4-for-5 night for Crow-Armstrong on Saturday, the most recent sign that his bat is turning things around after a slow start to 2026. But there are plenty of other signs, both statistically and under the hood, that indicate the exuberant 24-year-old is heating up.
You’ll likely remember that Crow-Armstrong finished 2025 with 31 homers and 35 stolen bases, joining Sammy Sosa as only the second Cub to do so in a single season. You might also remember that an MVP-caliber first half and a significant falloff in the second half were key parts of his story.
Crow-Armstrong smacked 25 of his homers in the first half with an .846 OPS to go with it. The second half saw just six homers and a plummeting .634 OPS, including an increased strikeout rate.
Thus, as he entered May 2026 with a below-average .669 OPS and strikeout and whiff rates butting up against 30%, some concern crept in that the 2025 second half -- not the first -- was more representative of who he was as a hitter.
The month of May, though, was quite good to PCA. He posted four home runs with a .233/.344/.417 slash line. An improved approach and a whole lot of hard contact is starting to be rewarded. Manager Craig Counsell has also bumped him up in the batting order, hitting leadoff in eight straight games before moving to the two hole against a left-handed starter on Sunday.
Here’s why things have been so much better for Crow-Armstrong over the past month.
Being selective
The raw numbers are evidence enough that PCA’s plate discipline improved greatly over the past month. His strikeout rate dropped from 29.7% in March/April to 21.3% in May. In tandem, his whiff rate dropped from 29.9% to 23.7%, and his walk rate increased from 7% to 10.7%.
This is all particularly noteworthy for Crow-Armstrong, whose power and speed on the bases are elite assets that have been greatly hindered by a propensity to chase, whiff and strike out.
But his chase rate has followed the other positive trends, shrinking from a rough 45.8% in March/April to a barely above league average 30.7% in May. He’s been more selective overall, seeing his swing rate drop almost 10%, from 57% to 47.6%.
Hitting it hard
When you’re seeing it well you tend to hit it much harder. And when you hit it harder, you tend to do more damage at the plate.
All of those things are true for Crow-Armstrong, whose hard-hit rate (batted balls at 95 mph or higher) boomed from an already above-average 46.8% in March/April to 53.8% in May. His average exit velocity has additionally improved an entire tick over the past month, from 91.2 mph to 92.4.
Even in his best overall month in July 2025, Crow-Armstrong fell below his May 2026 numbers with a 39.4% hard-hit rate and an 89.6 mph average EV. A nearly two mph increase in bat speed this year on top of better swing decisions will help lead to such impressive numbers.
MLB-wide, balls hit at 95 mph or harder have accumulated a .477 batting average and a .931 slugging percentage in 2026. So, needless to say, PCA is doing a lot of things right. That’s why his wRC+ has steadily climbed from 90 in March/April to 120 in May.
And if you want to look more closely at the nine games since Counsell moved him up in the lineup, Crow-Armstrong has been on quite the heater, posting 10-for-35 marks with a home run, three doubles, five walks and four RBIs. That’s good for a 145 wRC+.
Succeeding against lefties
Even when Crow-Armstrong was at the height of his powers in the first half of 2025, he struggled with same-side pitching. A 124 wRC+ against lefties in July set his career-high, but the numbers were much different in March/April (106), May (24) and June (64).
That simply hasn’t been the case early in 2026, an intriguing piece of PCA’s development. He crushed lefties as he struggled in March/April 2026, posting a 121 wRC+. Some of that may have been aided by a .400 batting average on balls in play, but it’s not like May -- with a 115 wRC+ -- was much different. Those are the second- and third-best months against southpaws in his entire career.
In fact, Crow-Armstrong has been better overall against lefties in 2026 than righties. While highly unlikely to hold true throughout the course of the season, it’s just another sign that Crow-Armstrong is continuing to grow after inking a six-year, $115 million extension entering the campaign.
Oh yeah … Crow-Armstrong -- who won his first Gold Glove a year ago -- has also been the best defender in baseball by Fielding Run Value (13) this season. So, despite the rough offensive start, PCA has been worth 2.4 FanGraphs WAR. That’s tied for ninth-most among position players thus far.
Perhaps Crow-Armstrong will be a hot-and-cold hitter for his entire career, but he’s also still just 24 and seems to be making meaningful changes to his approach at the plate. This current stretch has him again looking like one of the best players in MLB.