Taylor? Treinen? Breaking down NLDS roster decisions

October 11th, 2022

LOS ANGELES -- With the announcement that Julio Urías will start Game 1 of the National League Division Series against the Padres, the Dodgers have answered most of their big questions ahead of Tuesday’s opener.

At this point, the major issue to be settled is whether L.A.’s trio of injured players -- , and -- will make the cut when rosters are announced at 10 a.m. PT on Tuesday. Here’s the latest on their prognoses, and a look into the potential repercussions for the Dodgers carrying them in their first postseason round.

Taylor continues to improve, is likely to make the NLDS roster
Taylor, who missed the final five games of the regular season with neck stiffness, has ramped up his activity over the past few days, including facing live pitching during Monday’s workout at Dodger Stadium.

“If it goes well, my anticipation is he'll be active on our roster,” manager Dave Roberts said.

It’s been a down year offensively for Taylor, who slashed .221/.304/.373 in 118 games and posted a below-average OPS+ (86) for the first time in his six full seasons with the Dodgers. However, the value he provides through his defensive versatility meant there was never really a question about whether he would be on the NLDS roster, provided he was healthy, although he’ll be serving as a bench piece rather than getting starts.

The hope for the Dodgers now is that his postseason experience -- which includes a co-NLCS MVP performance in 2017 -- will help him out when it matters most.

Who else will be on L.A.’s bench?
Trayce Thompson and Joey Gallo are expected to platoon in left field, with one available to pinch-hit when the other starts. (If fully healthy, Taylor could also get starts in left.) There’s Austin Barnes, who will serve as Will Smith’s backup catcher while also likely getting the start behind the plate in Game 2, when Clayton Kershaw pitches.

The final bench spot should come down to Miguel Vargas and Hanser Alberto. Both can play first, second and third base, while Alberto also has experience at shortstop; Vargas, meanwhile, has gotten some big league reps in left field, albeit with mixed results.

The question, then, is whether the Dodgers will bet on experience or potential. Alberto, who turns 30 next week, has played parts of seven seasons in the Majors, this year slashing .244/.258/.365 in 73 games with Los Angeles. He also has a handful of postseason at-bats to his name, having appeared in three games with the Rangers during the 2015 ALDS.

On the other hand, there’s Vargas, 22, who mashed at every level of the Minors but has to yet to reach similar heights in his mere 18 MLB games. This would hardly be the first time a team has chosen to rely on heretofore unproven young talent in the postseason, though. And given that Vargas is ranked by MLB Pipeline as the Dodgers’ No. 3 prospect and the No. 41 prospect in baseball, there’s plenty of reason to bank on his offensive capabilities.

“Vargy has the hit tool, the foot speed,” said Roberts. “Certainly makes him a real viable possibility.”

Treinen and May are ‘healthy enough’ for roster spots
Treinen has battled right shoulder soreness for most of the season, but the Dodgers have been encouraged enough by what they’ve seen from him recently to not have ruled him out from their NLDS plans.

“The assumption, the hope, is that he feels good today,” said Roberts. “And if that's the case, then it's hard to imagine him not being on the roster.”

Carrying Treinen comes with risks, of course. The right-hander only appeared in five games for the Dodgers in 2022 -- three in April, two in September -- in addition to seven rehab appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City. The biggest problem is that Treinen is not built up to pitch in back-to-back games, making it difficult for him to be part of the all-hands-on-deck approach teams employ during the postseason.

As for May, who made his return from Tommy John surgery in August but has since dealt with command issues and low back tightness, the timing suggests he won’t be a fit for the NLDS roster. May threw three simulated innings in the bullpen on Sunday, making him unavailable for the first two games of the series, and the Dodgers won’t want to use one of their bullpen slots that way.

“To get [May] on a regular routine, to build up to four innings, to have more length potentially in the potential next series, I think that you could argue that [makes sense],” said Roberts. “But to have his arm talent in this series certainly makes a lot of sense, too.”

Who’s on the cusp of making the bullpen?
Left-hander Caleb Ferguson is the Dodgers reliever on the bubble more likely to fill a slot left vacant by either May or Treinen, with left-hander David Price as another option. Despite being removed from his closer duties, right-hander Craig Kimbrel should make it, though Roberts admitted it was something the Dodgers were still discussing.

“This has been an up-and-down, inconsistent year, as Craig has admitted, and has never felt right,” said Roberts.