With largest bonus pool, Mariners flexible with No. 3 Draft pick

SEATTLE -- Scott Hunter thought that landing the No. 3 overall pick in the MLB Draft lottery last offseason would give the Mariners more clarity than ever heading into this year’s event. But for Seattle’s vice president of amateur scouting, who oversees the club’s Draft, the months since have led to anything but.

What to do at No. 3?
“It’s going to be, I don’t want to say a heated battle in our room, but I don’t think we’re going to have -- when we walk out of there -- a full consensus of, like, ‘This is our guy,’” Hunter said.

Indeed, this year’s Draft does not feature a clear-cut No. 1 overall pick (held by the Nationals) or even No. 2 (Angels) -- think Paul Skenes, Jackson Holliday or Adley Rutschman in recent years, and Bryce Harper or Stephen Strasburg further back -- and no one knows what the clubs picking ahead of the Mariners are going to do, either.

MLB Pipeline’s latest mock Draft has a pair of left-handed college starters coming off the board with those first two picks -- Kade Anderson (LSU) and Liam Doyle (Tennessee) -- and the Mariners taking high-school right-hander Seth Hernandez (Corona, Calif.).

“They’re so crammed together up there right now that I think the separation is going to be very thin in regards to, like, who we actually take,” Hunter said. “That’s why it’s so hard when you get into these Drafts. I usually have a lead horse when I go in, but right now, I’m waiting to see what our information is from other departments, our high performance, our medical teams. There’s such a fine line. One little piece of information could really sway our room.”

High-school talent on the table?
Seattle hasn’t selected a prep pitcher in the first round since Taijuan Walker in 2010, well before Hunter and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto arrived.

That said, the progression of prep righty Ryan Sloan -- Seattle's No. 9 prospect and MLB's No. 83 overall prospect taken in the second round last year, but signed for first-round money -- suggests that they may be more open to it. High-school arms obviously come with more volatility, take more monitoring and player development and as such have a longer path to reach the Majors.

Seattle has gone heavy on high-schoolers recently, but with hitters, dipping into that pool with their first-round picks in 2021 (Harry Ford), 2022 (Cole Young) and 2023 (Colt Emerson, Jonny Farmelo, Tai Peete) before going back to the college pitcher route in 2024 (Jurrangelo Cijntje).

This year’s Draft features many high-school hitters projected to go high, including a slew of shortstops such as Ethan Holliday, Eli Willits, Billy Carlson, JoJo Parker, Steele Hall and Daniel Pierce, all of whom rank in Pipeline’s Top 15 Draft prospects.

“We are leaving everything open at this point,” Hunter said. “I think we look at the history of what we've done with our high school players. They all have like a common denominator -- like, they're all really good baseball players, they all have a maturity level that's beyond their years and they've really performed on every circuit, showcase, or every area that we look at, from our scout looks to our statistical looks.

“But for me, it always comes down to the end of the day their makeup. Like, does this player fit with the Mariners?”

And how about that lofty bonus pool?
The Mariners will have the most money to spend of any team ($17,074,400), nearly double from last year and which consists mostly of the slot values at picks No. 3 ($9,504,400) and No. 35 ($2,758,300).

Clubs are free to spread their spending as they’d like -- and Seattle did this in ‘23 by going over-slot on Farmelo and Peete then going under-slot for second-rounder Ben Williamson -- but going over will incur penalties.

“I think it's all going to [depend on] who we take with our first pick,” Hunter said. “Because there are a lot of guys bulked up at the top, that I think we have six or seven guys that were like, 'OK, how do we line these six or seven up? Is it the best deal? Is it the best players?' But like, they're so crammed together up there right now that I think the separation is going to be very thin in regards to who we actually take.”

The Mariners’ roster building business model has been self-professed as draft/develop/trade, making these next few weeks monumental in how the scope of the team looks, both short- and long-term.