Despite homers, Marlins like Cabrera's progression

September 15th, 2022

MIAMI -- In many ways, Marlins rookie right-hander reminds you of ace from a few years ago.

Both Dominican-born pitchers stand 6-foot-5. Both feature high-velocity fastballs and power changeups that induce weak contact. Both spent time as Top 100 prospects. It’s only natural that Cabrera would see his fellow countryman as a blueprint for success.

The next step in Cabrera’s development and transformation into the type of pitcher Alcantara is -- no small feat for a young arm -- is going deeper into games. Cabrera bounced back from a 33-pitch first inning to stymie the Phillies until consecutive one-out homers in the sixth inning of Wednesday night’s 6-1 loss to the Phillies at loanDepot park.

“That point [in the first inning], we're thinking it's got a chance to be a short one,” manager Don Mattingly said. “But he recovered and really got himself into a good spot. A couple of double-play balls helped him, but he hung in there. He's got the kind of stuff that he's going to keep you in games. Got good offspeed stuff. The more he gets the fastball where he wants to, the better he's going to get.”

Until Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto’s solo shots, Philadelphia had managed just one hit -- a leadoff single by Kyle Schwarber in the first. That fell in line with a season-long trend, as opponents were slashing just .168/.288/.284 with six homers against the 24-year-old Cabrera entering Wednesday’s start. That .168 mark was the lowest in the Majors among pitchers with at least 10 starts.

Through 18 career starts, Cabrera has:

  • Allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11
  • Given up three hits or fewer in 11

What makes Cabrera so unhittable?

It starts with his changeup, which maxed out at a whopping 95.5 mph on June 1 in Colorado. Its run value is -10 -- fifth best in the Majors, behind a trio of Cy Young candidates in Alcantara, Tyler Anderson and Shane McClanahan, as well as Zach Davies. It continues with Cabrera's breaking pitches.

“I kind of knew going into today that we were going to see sliders from him,” Realmuto said. “In my opinion, it's his best pitch. He just hung one for me. I was trying to stay right-center. I wasn't necessarily on his slider. I was just trying to stay with my approach and hit something to right-center. I was able to put a good swing on it."

Since returning from the injured list on Aug. 5, Cabrera has a 2.44 ERA, striking out 48 batters and walking 21. He ranks first among MLB rookies with at least 10 starts in ERA (2.70) and batting average against (.169) and ranked second in slugging percentage (.304) and WHIP (1.08).

Cabrera being a tough pitcher to barrel up (90th percentile for average exit velocity) isn’t new, and neither are his struggles as the game progresses. He has completed six innings just four times in his career.

“I feel normal,” Cabrera said via interpreter Luis Dorante Jr. “I don't feel anything different, just like any other day. Everything’s normal, feels the same, just like any other start. I don't see any challenges. I trust myself very well. Every time I face all those batters, I need to just attack them.”

During his pregame media scrum, Mattingly reflected on the organization’s hope for Cabrera to be able to go at least six innings over the course of a 30-start season. That should improve with time and training. At this stage, however, his delivery seems to lose its sharpness when he gets to the 85-pitch range.

On Wednesday, Cabrera was confident in the pitch selection; the problems were matters of missed location.

“I thought he was pretty good,” Mattingly said. “In that area, we worry about the ball getting kind of flat on him, his changeup ends up staying up, and I think it's something that he's going to have to recognize as the game goes on, just how to make sure he's being specific with what he wants to do.

“The power change[up] he throws hard, he throws it on the plate. As you get later in the game -- it's kind of like the slider -- you start losing a little bit of arm speed, thing stays up and spins and stays flat. Same with the changeup. I think Harper got a change and J.T. might have hit a slider, so it's kind of what you see late. But we thought he was pretty good there. That was a good spot to keep him in the game.”