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Marlins' starters on the mend will impact rotation
Marlins' starters on the mend will impact rotation
November 14th, 2018
Joe Frisaro
MIAMI -- With only a few of their starting pitchers touting much Major League experience, the Marlins are in the market for rotation depth. Miami's front office aims to protect itself from having to rush prospects, so the organization is exploring modestly-priced free agents as well as trade possibilities. But the Marlins could largely forego that path if a few candidates recovering from injuries are ready to go by either the start of Spring Training or Opening Day. Left-hander Caleb Smith missed the second half of 2018 due to a left pectoral tear that required season-ending surgery, right-hander Dan Straily was shut down in September due to a left oblique strain and promising rookie Pablo Lopez finished the season on the 60-day disabled list with right shoulder inflammation. Straily also opened the year on the disabled list due to right forearm inflammation. His injuries limited him to 23 starts and 122 1/3 innings of work. If these three pitchers are in the mix, the Marlins will have options. Jose Urena projects to be the Opening Day starter, and other front-runners for rotation spots are Sandy Alcantara, Wei-Yin Chen and Trevor Richards. Dillon Peters, Elieser Hernandez, Brett Graves, Ben Meyer and Merandy Gonzalez each had big league time in 2018, and knocking on the door in the Minor Leagues are Zac Gallen and Nick Neidert. Jorge Guzman could be an option late in the season. Smith provided an update on his condition on Tuesday on Twitter, announcing a smooth start to his throwing program.
First day of throwing went really well. Arm felt good and had zero pain. #TrustTheProcess
If the Marlins can get Smith back either by Opening Day or at some point in the first half, it would be a big help for their rotation. Before his injury on June 24 at Colorado, Smith was building a case for National League Rookie of the Year Award consideration. In 16 starts and 77 1/3 innings, the lefty had 88 strikeouts, which topped all NL rookies at the time he went on the disabled list. On a rebuilding club, the 27-year-old was 5-6 with a 4.19 ERA.
Smith is one of Miami's more intriguing starters. The Marlins acquired him and first baseman/outfielder Garrett Cooper from the Yankees last November for right-hander Michael King and $250,000 of international bonus pool money. At the time, the organization wasn't sure if Smith fit as a starter or a reliever. Miami's analytics department soon identified that Smith possessed a four-seam fastball spin rate that ranked among the top starters in the sport. Based on the metrics, Smith was given a shot in the rotation. According to Statcast™, Smith's four-seam spin rate of 2,365 rpm was tied with Luis Severino of the Yankees for 19th best among starters who threw the pitch a minimum of 750 times. By comparison, Mets ace Jacob deGrom's four-seam spin rate was 2,362 and Blake Snell of the Rays had a four-seam spin rate of 2,364. By getting Smith to trust his fastball, he felt more confident attacking with the zone, rather than trying to be too fine working the corners. The results were telling. With his four-seam fastball, Smith had a swing-and-miss rate on pitches in the strike zone of 34.1 percent. Compare that to Nationals All-Star and two-time NL Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer, whose rate sat at 32.8 percent. Straily's status still is a little unclear. The right-hander is second-year arbitration-eligible and could be either a non-tender or trade candidate. But if the Marlins are confident he is healthy, Straily has a track record of being dependable and durable and could easily be a big part of the rotation again in 2019.
In an injury-plagued 2018, the right-hander was 5-6 with a 4.12 ERA. Straily made a career-high 33 starts in '17, his first season with Miami, posting a 10-9 record with a 4.26 ERA. The Marlins feel Lopez, 22, has a bright future. The rookie had a breakthrough season, posting a combined 1.44 ERA across stints with Double-A Jacksonville and Triple-A New Orleans. With the Marlins, Lopez was 2-4 with a 4.14 ERA in 10 starts. When he experienced some discomfort in his shoulder, the organization took no chances and immediately shut down the talented right-hander, who should be ready to go in Spring Training.