Midway through camp, Miami's rotation in flux

March 2nd, 2020

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. -- Halfway through Spring Training, the competition for rotation spots is about the same as it was when Marlins camp opened.

The primary candidates and frontrunners remain about the same as expected, but the main priority for the organization is getting as many of them as ready as possible. Because even though there are at least eight candidates for five spots, the Marlins are anticipating needing everyone at some point during the season.

“You're wanting to get everybody going, and then make a decision, knowing that you're going to need all of them, no matter how it shakes out at the end of spring,” manager Don Mattingly said. “You're still going to need all of them.”

On Monday, right-hander made his second Grapefruit League start, and gave up one run in three innings against the Nationals at FITTEAM Ballpark of the Palm Beaches, in what would end as a 3-2 Marlins loss. The right-hander walked three and had two strikeouts, finishing at 49 pitches (27 strikes).

The projected five are, in no particular order, , , , López and . Right-handers and each had starting experience last year, and prospect is getting closer to being big league ready.

Behind that group are prospects , , and . All four have fastballs that have reached 100 mph. They’re also on the 40-man roster.

“If you're in Double-A, you're [close to being] here,” Mattingly said. “You can be here just as easily, especially, if you're on the roster.”

Of the prospects, Sanchez, Cabrera, Guzman and Neidert are expected to start off at Triple-A Wichita. Holloway and lefty prospects Braxton Garrett and Trevor Rogers are likely to start off at Double-A Jacksonville. Garrett and Rogers still are not on the 40-man roster.

“You don't know who that guy is,” Mattingly said. “You have an idea, a plan for these guys. But you don't really know who pops up and says, 'I'm ready!'"

With camp halfway over, MLB.com breaks down how the Marlins’ rotation is shaping up, and who is knocking on the door.

RHP Sandy Alcantara
The expected Opening Day starter, Alcantara is off to a slow start in two Grapefruit League starts. Thus far, the 24-year-old has struggled throwing strikes. He has walked seven with one strikeout in 3 2/3 innings and has a 17.18 ERA.

There’s still time for Alcantara to get on track before the season opens on March 26 against the Phillies at Marlins Park. An All-Star in 2019, Alcantara was a workhorse, logging 197 1/3 innings with a 3.88 ERA in 32 starts.

Physically, Alcantara is fine. It’s a matter of getting him back on the attack in the zone. When at his best, the right-hander induces plenty of ground balls. Per Statcast last season, Alcantara got 272 ground balls, which was tied with Stephen Strasburg for the 12th-most of any starter in the Majors.

LHP Caleb Smith
The lone left-hander projected to be in the rotation, Smith has been working on adding a curveball to mix in with his slider and changeup. He’s tossed a bunch in bullpen sessions and a few in his first Grapefruit League outing, in which he threw two scoreless innings. Smith was 10-11 with a 4.52 ERA last year, and he was the only hurler in the rotation with double-digit victories. Smith has a high spin rate and gets his share of swinging strikes on his four-seam fastball in the strike zone. He had 116 last year, which was the 12th-most of any starter, according to Statcast.

The key for Smith is staying healthy. He missed a month last year due to left hip inflammation.

“Everybody saw what I could do in the first half of the season, when I stayed healthy,” Smith said. “Then, I kind of fell off.”

RHP José Ureña
Ureña, Miami’s Opening Day starter the past two years, missed a couple of months last year due to a herniated disc. The right-hander made 13 starts and 11 appearances in relief in 2019, posting a 5.21 ERA.

He’s refined his delivery this spring, pitching out of the stretch even with no one on base, and it’s helping him get his fastball to both sides of the plate. In five innings he has yet to allow a run, with four strikeouts and no walks.

RHP Pablo López
López struggled with control early on Monday, walking Adam Eaton on five pitches to lead off the first, and two batters later he walked Juan Soto for the first of two times. But overall, the 23-year-old minimized damage, and made it through three innings on 49 pitches. In two Grapefruit League outings, the right-hander has allowed two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings and he projects be in the top three in the rotation.

RHP Jordan Yamamoto
Yamamoto made 15 starts after being promoted from Double-A last year, ending with a 4-5 record and a 4.46 ERA. The right-hander struck out 82 in 78 2/3 big league innings. In five innings this spring, he has allowed two earned runs with six strikeouts and no walks.

RHP Robert Dugger
Dugger has been on the attack this spring. In 4 2/3 scoreless innings, he has five strikeouts and one walk, allowing three hits. The 24-year-old made seven big league starts a year ago, and had a 5.77 ERA in 34 1/3 innings.

“You're going to need depth,” Mattingly said. “That's another thing about camp that makes things interesting. Now you know, if this guy goes down, this guy is coming. If this guy goes down, there's a guy there coming.”