Do you buy these Spring Training breakouts?

Are these just mirages?

March 10th, 2020

Spring Training is a time to let yourself dream. It's when we put on our rose-colored glasses, look out over the sparkling green fields and, with a little squinting, convince ourselves: "This is the year. This is the year we win the World Series." Dodgers fans do it, Yankees fans do it -- even rebuilding teams like the Orioles and Marlins have fans out there thinking, "If a few things break right, we could have one of the most magical seasons in history."

It's why this time of the year exists. And it extends to the players, too: With just a few games under their belts, we find ourselves thinking things like, "This guy's going to be a fantasy sleeper!" or "Look out, Mike Trout, there's a brand new MVP."

Of course, all that boundless optimism can make it hard to separate the fantasy from reality. But today, you're going to be asked to do just that. Here are eight unlikely players in the midst of red-hot springs -- do you buy it, or is it simply a mirage?

(All stats entering Tuesday.)

Félix Hernández

Hernández's career seemed destined to be a kind of Shakespearean tragedy. Blessed with the kind of changeup that brings tears to the eyes, King Felix dominated the league for over a decade without a single postseason appearance to show for it. After age seemed to catch up with him -- leading to a 5.82 ERA over the past two seasons -- the Mariners didn't bring him back when his contract was up. But ... what's this? After dominating the Red Sox on Monday, the Braves non-roster invitee has a 1.98 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings, and a rotation spot seems to be his to lose.

Chris Davis

We all wanted to believe. After enduring one of the worst slumps in history last season -- going 0-for-54 before snapping the streak with a single -- Davis got hot. hitting four home runs with a .959 OPS over his next 19 games. It was the best comeback since John Travolta in the '90s.

Sadly, the rest of the season looked more like John Travolta now and Davis finished the season with an OPS of .601. That would have been the worst in the Majors had he qualified for the batting title.

But Davis is showing off some skills this Spring. Entering Wednesday's action, he was leading the Orioles in most offensive categories while hitting .538/.652/1.231 with three home runs.

Orlando Arcia

At his best, Arcia can do unbelievable things on the field. The hope was always that he'd be able to hit just enough to keep himself in the lineup, as he did when he posted a .731 OPS with 15 home runs in 2017.

But while he's been able to hit for some power (as has the rest of the league), he's been unable to make consistent contact or get on base, leading to the worst OPS among all qualified batters last season. Entering this spring, it looked like Arcia would lose the starting shortstop job to new acquisition Luis Urías.

But after Urías suffered a wrist injury, Arcia -- armed with a new swing -- has responded by hitting .304 with five home runs (which is how many he's hit in every Spring Training combined).

Ian Miller

The Cubs are his third big league organization, and the 28-year-old is making the most of his non-roster Spring invite. After hitting .264/.346/.431 in Triple-A last season, Miller was given a brief taste of the big leagues with the Twins and didn't do much with it. Now, he's hitting .375/.459/.469 and leading the Majors with eight stolen bases. It may just be enough to break camp as the 26th man on Chicago's roster.

Kenley Jansen

Jansen had the worst season of his big league career last year, as his ERA ballooned to a career-worst 3.71 and he blew eight saves. But after a winter at -- stop me if you've heard this one before -- Driveline Baseball, Jansen looks to be back.

Through five innings, the righty has struck out 10 batters while surrendering only three hits. While it's a small sample, it's the first time Jansen has K'd double-digit batters in Spring Training since 2016 -- the year he was elected to his first All-Star Game.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Kiner-Falefa's strength was never with the stick -- the Honolulu native hit only seven home runs during his seven seasons in the Minor Leagues -- but that he could pretty much play anywhere on the diamond, including behind the plate. That seems to have changed this spring. Riding a hot bat to the tune of a .419/.455/.839 slash line, Falefa has some wondering if the 25-year-old is the answer at third base for the Rangers this year.

Bubba Starling

Drafted fifth overall in the 2011 Draft, it's been slow-going for Starling. While no one has ever debated his athleticism, the bat has never really caught up. Last year, he reached the big leagues for the first time, but didn't do much. The rookie outfielder hit just .215/.255/.317 across 197 plate appearances.

But this spring, Starling is showing off the skills that had the Royals salivating so much nearly a decade ago. Driving the ball more, Starling is hitting .423/.500/.885.

Noah Syndergaard

Armed with arguably the most terrifying fastball-and-slider combo in baseball, it's seemed like only a matter of time before Syndergaard would wind up with an armful of Cy Young Awards. Despite all that earth-shaking power, Syndergaard had the worst season of his big league career last year, posting a 95 ERA+ and leading the NL in earned runs allowed.

With a new pitching coach and brand new body tracking software (but no pants), Syndergaard seems poised for a breakout. In eight innings, the golden-locked hurler has struck out 11 and given up three runs.