What's next for Rays after Eflin signing?

December 5th, 2022

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ST. PETERSBURG -- After a relatively quiet month, the offseason has kicked into another gear as the entire baseball industry prepares to descend upon San Diego for the Winter Meetings.

The Rays still haven’t addressed their biggest need for a left-handed bat to balance and improve their lineup, but they’ve been busy. Let’s start with one deal they’ve nearly pushed across the finish line.

The Rays agreed to a three-year contract with starter Zach Eflin that, when finalized, will be the largest free-agent guaranteed contract in franchise history. (Step aside, Wilson Alvarez!) Tampa Bay is set to pay Eflin $40 million over the next three years, more than the $35 million Alvarez earned from 1998-2002.

It’s not necessarily the first strike many expected -- for a few reasons. One, the Rays’ rotation was already pretty loaded with Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs, followed by depth options like Luis Patiño, Yonny Chirinos, Josh Fleming and top prospect Taj Bradley. But perhaps the Rays see some stability and untapped upside in the 28-year-old Eflin, especially with a better defensive unit behind him.

It was also surprising to see the Rays lead with a move meant to bolster their run prevention rather than address their run-scoring ability, which is the more glaring concern. They still have time to figure that out, though, through further signings or trades.

More than anything, it’s an unexpectedly significant expenditure for the Rays. Eflin’s $11 million salary next season would make him the team’s highest-paid player. Spending $13 million for one year of Corey Kluber was seen as a relatively low-risk move. Guaranteeing $40 million over three years to a pitcher with a career 4.49 ERA is decidedly riskier for the typically cost-conscious Rays.

Then again, the Rays were also in the mix for veteran first baseman José Abreu, who wound up signing with the Astros for three years and $58.5 million. Then came the biggest name linked to the Rays this offseason: Jacob deGrom, before he signed with the Rangers.

SNY.tv first reported that the Rays had “spoken with deGrom’s camp.” (That should have come as no surprise, considering everyone checks in on everything this time of year.) After that, Ken Rosenthal wrote for The Athletic (subscription required) that “club officials are pessimistic about their chances,” which should also have come as no surprise. That feeling was justified when it came to light Friday night what deGrom wound up getting from the Rangers.

Texas signed deGrom to a five-year, $185 million contract -- a mere $145 million more than Eflin’s deal with Tampa Bay. It was always unlikely that the Rays would land the longtime Mets ace, of course. It feels notable, however, that the Rays are getting involved in more of these high-dollar pursuits lately.

That’s why the “burning question” in our Winter Meetings preview was whether they’ll make a big splash. Depth has been the key to the Rays’ recent success, and they still thrive on the margins by discovering talent where others might not look. But they’ve shown somewhat of a desire lately to add more star power.

Last spring, the Rays were entirely serious in their pursuit of Freddie Freeman, offering somewhere in the $140-150 million range over the course of a long-term contract. In recent years, they’ve reportedly kicked around moves for Kris Bryant, Craig Kimbrel and Max Scherzer. And while it may not have worked out as expected, the 2021 Trade Deadline deal for Nelson Cruz was a significant acquisition that came at a high cost.

They’ve taken some big swings internally, too. Not just the Wander Franco mega-extension for upwards of $182 million, but also the two-year extension that will pay Glasnow a club-record $25 million in 2024.

Could the Rays have another surprise in store? We’ll learn more soon, starting in San Diego.