Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: The American League East is loaded this year.
The Blue Jays had a huge offseason after falling just short in Game 7 of the World Series. The Yankees are running it back, for better or worse, with a team that won 94 games last year and will get Gerrit Cole back at some point this year.
The Red Sox spent the winter packing their rotation with proven arms behind ace Garrett Crochet. The Orioles were clearly motivated by their disappointing campaign last year, adding big-time talent to new manager Craig Albernaz’s squad. And the Rays are still the Rays, with a legitimate star in Junior Caminero and ace Shane McClanahan coming back.
With Grapefruit League games beginning this weekend, let’s check in with MLB.com’s AL East beat reporters to get a lay of the land in baseball’s most competitive division.
How do you see the team you cover stacking up in such a competitive division?
Keegan Matheson, Blue Jays beat reporter: I’d still pick the Blue Jays to win the division, but how confidently can I say that if I also expect it to go down to the final few days? The difference I’m looking at this season is that I expect both the Orioles and Rays to be better, so this division will be a mess. Remember 2021, when the Blue Jays won 91 games and still missed the postseason? That’s what this division can turn into, but I like the Blue Jays to repeat in the East for the first time since 1992-93.
Bryan Hoch, Yankees beat reporter: “Running it back” sounds negative when the most recent result is an early exit in the AL Division Series, but let’s pop the hood and discuss why it might not be the craziest strategy. The Yankees led the Majors with 849 runs scored last year and Aaron Judge is still in his MVP prime. Offense shouldn’t be an issue. On the pitching side, they didn’t get a single inning from Gerrit Cole last year, they are expecting a full season of Cam Schlittler, and at some point, I’d expect Elmer Rodriguez (MLB Pipeline's No. 82 overall prospect) and Carlos Lagrange (No. 79 overall prospect) to help at the big league level. The bullpen blew plenty of games last year. If they clean that up and play better head-to-head with the Blue Jays, I see them taking back the division.
Ian Browne, Red Sox beat reporter: The Red Sox will lean into their strength, which is a loaded rotation that added Sonny Gray and Ranger Suárez to a group that already includes one of the most dominant aces in the game in Crochet and Brayan Bello, the team’s Opening Day starter in ‘24. If the front four stays healthy, Boston should be right in the mix for the division and certainly a top Wild Card contender. A fair question is this: Where will the power come from? Emerging star Roman Anthony, two-time Gold Glove Award winner Wilyer Abreu and veteran shortstop Trevor Story are all capable of hitting 25-plus homers. If one of those three can get above 30, the Sox could have enough punch to score for their potentially dominant staff.
Adam Berry, Rays beat reporter: The Rays will be picked to finish last, which is understandable coming off consecutive losing seasons and a typical Tampa Bay offseason in which the front office operated with a focus on both the present and future, but there’s a pretty wide range of possible outcomes. I wouldn’t be surprised if this team fares better than the past two years as they return to Tropicana Field, which their roster is built to take advantage of, and gets back to their run-prevention roots. I agree with Keegan’s point about this division taking on a 2021-type feel, though. So even if the Rays take a step back in the right direction, a Wild Card spot may be their best hope of getting back to the playoffs.
Jake Rill, Orioles beat reporter: The O’s could get hot, win 100-plus games and capture the division title (like they did in 2023) ... or they could finish below .500 for the second straight year. That’s how large the range of potential outcomes is for this team in ‘26. The Orioles are going to hit, with an already solid lineup adding the powerful right-handed bats of Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward. Their starting rotation is now deep and could surprise people. Their bullpen is unproven. This club should be competitive ... but its pitching will likely decide how far it goes.
What has to go right for the team you cover to have a good Spring Training?
Matheson: If I can’t go with “health” here, the Blue Jays need one more hitter to pop. Remember last year, when George Springer hit .108 in Spring Training, then flew north and had a renaissance season? These things aren’t always easy to see in February and March, but still, the Blue Jays need one more bat to break out and surprise everyone. That could be the newly acquired Jesús Sánchez or Addison Barger -- two very similar offensive players -- or a depth outfielder like Davis Schneider forcing his way into more at-bats.
Hoch: First, make sure Judge and everyone else come back healthy from the World Baseball Classic. You know Aaron Boone and everyone else in Yankee-land will be holding their breath on that. Otherwise, the spring is a ramp-up for a largely veteran team to get things rolling for the regular season. I’ll be watching Jasson Domínguez closely to see how he progresses in left field and against left-handed pitching, and I’m curious to see what their plan is for Spencer Jones. He’d absolutely be starting in the Majors for some other teams right now. Watch how things progress with the high-leverage arms, especially Camilo Doval. He’s a little bit of a project, and if they get him back to closer form, that’s a big pickup.
Browne: Weapons have to emerge on offense. In particular, Jarren Duran hopes to get back to being the same force he was in ‘24, be it as a leadoff hitter or someone who hits in more of a run-producing slot. Ceddanne Rafaela has shown flashes of brilliance at the plate in his first two seasons, but also slumps that last far too long. If he can develop better pitch recognition, he has the ability to give the offense some thump near the bottom of the order. Marcelo Mayer needs to prove he can be a mainstay in the lineup – at whichever infield position manager Alex Cora ends up putting him at.
Berry: The Rays’ pitching and top three hitters have to stay healthy. They won’t get as much attention, and their innings will be limited, but McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen could be as effective a 1-2 rotation punch as any. Closer Pete Fairbanks is gone, but the back-end bullpen quartet of Griffin Jax, Edwin Uceta, Garrett Cleavinger and Bryan Baker could be nasty. And the lineup is dependent upon Caminero, Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda shouldering the load. A nice bonus would be prospects Carson Williams (MLB Pipeline's No. 63 overall prospect) and Jacob Melton looking so good that they make it hard for the Rays to send them down.
Rill: Good health is a popular answer here, but the Orioles may need it the most. After all, they had 29 players spend time on the injured list last year and used the IL 39 total times. Their 2025 season went off the rails by mid-May, in large part because of how many players got hurt. They never got back into the AL East race ... because more guys got hurt. This year, Jackson Holliday (broken hamate bone in right hand) is already out until mid-April and Jordan Westburg (tweaked right oblique) is again in rehab mode. The O’s can’t go into the season any more banged up. They need better fortune to produce better results.
It’s early, and there’s a lot we don’t know. But right now, if you had to pick a team that will win the division other than the one you cover, who would it be?
Matheson: The Yankees. They led the league in runs (849) and home runs (274) last season, so the whole “run it back” strategy doesn’t sound like the worst idea if Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt all return from their rehabs throughout the season to bolster this rotation. I’ll still lean towards the Blue Jays repeating, but there’s a reason all of the projection systems have this division separated by only a game or two.
Hoch: The Blue Jays. They’re the pennant-winners and the team to beat, and not just because Isiah Kiner-Falefa was this close to securing a World Series trophy on Canadian soil. Head to head, Toronto had the Yankees’ number all season long, and that spilled into a largely lopsided AL Division Series. The Yanks need to prove they can correct that. Easier said than done. The Yanks lost eight of 13 against Toronto during the regular season, including six of seven at Rogers Centre.
Browne: It is so unusual for the Yankees to be laying in the weeds. But here they are, laying in the weeds for once. Remember, they tied the almost World Series champion Blue Jays in wins last season, though Toronto turned that into a distant memory by wiping New York out in the ALDS. Add Cole (at some point) back to a rotation that has another No. 1 starter in Max Fried and the Yankees have the ability to beat you in a lot of different ways. Judge, the reigning MVP, can carry the offense for weeks at a time.
Berry: This is impossible. FanGraphs’ projections have the Yankees at 87 wins, the Red Sox and Blue Jays at 86, the Orioles at 85 and the Rays (often underestimated by projection systems for various reasons) at 80. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections have them all between roughly 89 (Blue Jays and Yankees) and 82 (Rays) wins. I wouldn’t be surprised if it winds up being that tightly packed, if not more so. For now, I’ll stick with the defending AL champs and say the Blue Jays. They have a deep and talented rotation, really strong defenders up the middle and a lineup that can beat you in different ways.
Rill: Hard not to pick the defending AL champions who came within three outs of a World Series championship, right? Especially because the Blue Jays had a good offseason with the acquisitions of right-hander Dylan Cease, Japanese infielder Kazuma Okamoto and others. But let’s face it -- this is the AL East, and any of these teams could end up on top. So while Toronto and New York may be the popular picks now, it’s easy to see how Boston or Baltimore could take the crown. And Tampa Bay can almost never be counted out, of course.