The Dodgers and Padres enter their first series of the season separated by just a half-game in the standings. Could that be an indication that we're in for another thrilling battle for the National League West?
Regardless of what happens in the months to follow, the first meeting between the two divisional rivals from tonight through Wednesday at Petco Park should make for an exciting series -- and, potentially, a measuring stick for both clubs.
Let's check in with MLB.com's beat reporters to see how the NL West's top two teams are shaping up over a quarter of the way into the season.
What’s the state of each team?
Sonja Chen, Dodgers beat reporter: For the first month and change, the Dodgers' starting pitching was a big reason why the team had managed to remain on top of the division despite an offensive malaise that began in mid-April. But all of a sudden, the rotation depth is looking awfully thin after Tyler Glasnow (lower back spasms) and Blake Snell (loose bodies in left elbow) landed on the IL. It won't be a problem this series, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Emmet Sheehan and Shohei Ohtani lined up. But in the big picture, the Dodgers are in a more vulnerable place. They've still won five in a row heading into this series.
AJ Cassavell, Padres beat reporter: The Padres have been dealing with the same kind of rotation issues all season long. Joe Musgrove had a setback in his Tommy John surgery recovery and still hasn’t thrown off a mound. Nick Pivetta joined him on the IL in April with right elbow inflammation. (Not to mention Yu Darvish, who is out for the season following surgery last October.) But the Padres are still getting it done thanks to a dominant bullpen and juuuust enough from their starting rotation. Michael King and Randy Vásquez, in particular, have held it down, and they’ll both get starts against L.A. this week. With a solid pitching staff, the Padres’ weakness this season has been the offense, somewhat surprisingly. Specifically: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill. If that All-Star trio gets going, this team looks like a contender. But the longer their struggles linger, the more it seems a question of “if” and not “when.”
Are the Padres a real threat to the Dodgers and are they going to make this a race all season?
Chen: The Dodgers may have won four straight division titles, and 12 of the last 13, but they're not invincible. The core that won back-to-back championships is intact -- and improved from last year -- but the oldest position-player group in baseball has shown its age a little. To me, this is less about the Dodgers and more about what the Padres do with their opportunities to close the gap or get ahead. Last year, San Diego twice knocked L.A. out of first place in August, but not for more than a day at a time. If the Padres can apply pressure at the right times, then this will be a race.
Cassavell: Completely agree. I guess I acknowledge that there’s a chance the Dodgers could blow this race open if the Padres’ stars continue to struggle and their rotation doesn’t get healthy. But I think there’s a greater chance that this goes down to the wire. The Padres have pushed the Dodgers in each of the past two seasons, and I think they’re better equipped to do so this year, because of the depth of their roster. But, yeah, gotta get that rotation healthy. (The arrival of Lucas Giolito, who had an encouraging debut Sunday, should certainly help.)
What’s the biggest concern for each team at the moment?
Chen: The rotation depth may be the most notable long-term concern, but the Dodgers' offense is coming off a team-wide slump -- similar to the second half of last season, which allowed the Padres to threaten down the stretch. The bats have broken out over the past five games, all of which came against the Giants and Angels. The Padres should present a steeper challenge.
Cassavell: It’s borderline unfathomable that the Padres are 10 games above .500 with how little production they’ve gotten from Machado, Tatis and Merrill. Combined, that trio has hovered around a .600 OPS. Tatis still hasn’t homered. Machado and Merrill are reaching base at a clip below .300. And yet, the Padres somehow have a passable offense. They’re getting major contributions from role players like Gavin Sheets, Miguel Andujar and Ty France. Nick Castellanos is heating up as well. Pretty much all of the Padres’ problems would be solved if Machado, Tatis and Merrill performed to their usual standards. That has to happen eventually, right? Right?!
What’s the state of the rivalry from each team’s perspective right now?
Chen: The Dodgers are aware that they've been out of first place a couple of times, but the Padres have not been a focus at this early juncture. They do, however, look forward to the energy that comes with every series against their rivals to the south.
"I think that we bring out the best in them, they bring out the best in us," manager Dave Roberts said. "... I think it's good for us. I think it's good for baseball. I think it's good for Southern California, the National League. They're talented."
Cassavell: Roberts and Mike Shildt had beef, dating back to the 2024 playoffs. It lingered into the ‘25 season with a mid-June beanball war. The temperament of new Padres manager Craig Stammen is … different. Don’t expect this to be about the rivalry. The Padres, like the Dodgers, are focusing on themselves and not the standings at this stage of the season.
“It’s three games that we’ve got to play really well," Stammen said. "They’re a great team. We’re going to play our best -- and then move on with the rest of the season.”
So … what does this week’s series really mean?
Chen: In all likelihood, not a lot in the context of the entire season. But it does give us our first opportunity to see how these two teams match up between the lines, not just on paper. Every game does count, especially when it comes to these clubs that are vying for a division title. Without getting ahead of ourselves, head-to-head records are the first tiebreaker for postseason seeding, so whichever team wins this series will get off to a good start.
Cassavell: While I’d agree -- it really doesn’t mean all that much in the standings -- I will say, I think the Padres have a chance to make a statement. I’m normally not one to designate a “statement series” in early May. But I think a lot of people around the league are wondering if the Padres are getting by with smoke and mirrors. (Their run differential is +7 to the Dodgers’ +94 mark.) Win a series against the two-time defending champs and current World Series favorites -- I think they announce their presence in the upper echelon in the National League. Ultimately, whatever it means, I know Petco Park will be rocking.