This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
SAN DIEGO -- We’re a quarter of the way there.
Or just about.
With their wild comeback win over the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon at Petco Park, the Padres improved to 24-16. They’re tied for first place in the National League West. Through 40 games, they’re playing .600 ball. They’d take that every time.
And yet, this Padres offense hasn’t been close to good enough. Don’t take it from me…
“It’s obvious,” said Manny Machado. “We’re not hitting.”
I am endlessly fascinated by this offense -- and what its poor start means in the context of the 2026 season as a whole. The whole thing needs to get better. A lot better. And yet, there’s reason to believe it will. Oh, and in the meantime, the Padres look like contenders, even with a bottom-10 offense in the sport.
I suppose the way you view this offense probably says as much about you as it does the actual San Diego offense. There’s something for everyone -- the optimists, the pessimists, the realists and the dreamers. I’m not sure what to make of it all. I guess we’ll find out over the next five months. But I certainly understand the varying perspectives:
Glass half empty …
A quarter of the way through the season, it’s not a small sample anymore. The Padres’ offense has been bad. Which isn’t to say it’s a bad offense. Just that, across a reasonable sample of 40 games -- with a mostly healthy group of hitters -- it’s been bad.
Entering play Monday, the Padres ranked 27th in OPS (.667), tied for 20th in runs (170), 20th in home runs (39) and 25th in wRC+ (92). That last one -- wRC+ -- is an all-encompassing hitting metric, which accounts for factors like ballpark scoring environment. It’s not merely a Petco Park thing. The Padres need more offense.
This is a star issue more than anything else. Fernando Tatis Jr., naturally, draws the biggest headlines. His struggles have been the most visible. But it’s the trio of Machado, Tatis and Jackson Merrill who have not been good enough collectively.
Their combined numbers: .221/.305/.336 -- a .641 OPS with just 10 home runs.
Yikes. That’s just not enough. Say what you will about the back of their baseball cards -- “They’re talented players who are bound to start hitting eventually” is the refrain we’ve heard from the coaching staff. But the longer this lasts -- and it’s now lasted a quarter of a season -- it becomes more a question of “if” than “when.”
Another less concerning -- but still concerning -- aspect is the production at second base and catcher. Luis Campusano was excellent. But now that he’s hurt, the Padres don’t have much offense behind the plate. Even when Jake Cronenworth was healthy, they weren’t getting much at second.
Again, if the stars are hitting like stars, I’m not sure whether that matters. But come trade season, the Padres will have some interesting decisions to make. They’d be much better served if they could spend the majority -- or all -- of their resources on starting pitching, rather than plugging minor holes on offense.
Glass half full …
I think this stat tells you everything you need to know about the way it’s gone for the Padres’ offense this season:
The Padres’ 14 hits against the Cardinals this weekend were the fewest they’ve ever recorded in a four-game series. And they won two of those games.
That’s pretty much how it’s gone this year. Despite the offensive struggles, the Padres are finding ways to win. Plenty of credit goes to their pitching staff. But the bats have often done juuuuust enough.
“Even though we’re not rolling,” said Nick Castellanos, “we’re fighting.”
The stars aren’t mashing. But when the game’s on the line, they’re still generally putting together quality at-bats. Case in point: Tatis (a feisty walk) and Machado (a walk-off sacrifice fly) in the decisive 10th inning on Sunday.
In the meantime, while the stars aren’t hitting, a few of the fringe pieces are. Campusano, Ty France and Miguel Andujar have made an impact. On Sunday, it was Castellanos coming off the bench to hit a game-tying two-run homer in the ninth. He’s starting to settle into a role.
The ancillary pieces are in place for this to be a very good offense. The bench looks like it might be one of the best in baseball (especially if Campusano and Cronenworth can get healthy).
The Padres just need their superstars to hit like superstars. It’s really that simple.
Yes, we’ve established that -- 40 games into the season -- it’s no longer a foregone conclusion. But there’s evidence that it should turn in that direction. Merrill’s last week has been hugely encouraging. Tatis is still hitting the ball as hard as anyone -- he just needs to elevate it. (On Sunday, he did that, coming as close to a home run as he’s come all season.)
For the Padres to realize their potential, those superstars need to hit. But their bullpen is elite. Their rotation has shown encouraging signs, even amid injuries. Their bench has been excellent.
The Padres are winning 60% of their games, even without their superstars playing like superstars.
If they do -- or, depending on your perspective, “when” they do -- this can still be a top-10 offense. And at that point, considering the makeup of the rest of the roster, this team looks like a serious contender.