What it means to be in 1st place on June 1

The weather is heating up and the baseball season is in full swing. As we enter June, it’s time to take a good look at the standings. There’s still plenty of baseball left, but trends that began in April have solidified further in May. Just about a third of the way into the season, it’s time to start thinking about whether our current division leaders are for real.

Let’s take a look at those leaders and what the postseason field could look like come October. Note, all stats below exclude the shortened 2020 season and instead look at full seasons for the impact and postseason implications.

What it means to be in first place
Since 1996 -- the first full season with at least one Wild Card in each league after the ‘95 campaign was limited to 144 games due to the strike that began in 1994 -- 100 of 168 eventual division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering June 1. That’s 60 percent of division winners.

Pay special attention, Yankees, Tigers, Mariners, Phillies, Mets, Cubs and Dodgers fans -- those teams are our current division leaders heading into June, with the NL East tied up top.

Last season, five of the six division leaders on June 1 went on to win their divisions. In the American League, the Yankees and Guardians both won their divisions, while the Mariners, who led the AL West entering June, missed the postseason. In the NL, the Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers each led entering June and went on to win their divisions.

If you were wondering, there’s been just one season in this span where all six division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering June 1: 1998.

Since 1996, 16 of the 28 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their divisions entering June. The Dodgers did so last year.

Those defending champion Dodgers are in first place entering June. That’s rarer than you might think. Of the 28 teams to win the World Series since 1996 and play in May the next year, just seven have found themselves in first place through May that subsequent year, including these Dodgers. The 2018 Astros were the last to do it before this year.

This year’s leaders overall
Of this year’s current division leaders entering June, each has had at least a share of that lead entering June at least one other time since 2021, except one. The Tigers are in this spot for the first time since 2014.

The Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers won their divisions last year. The Cubs last did so in 2017, the Mets in 2015, Tigers in 2014 and Mariners in 2001.

What’s next
Even two months in, there’s still plenty of baseball left to be played. But fans of the seven division leaders, with that NL East tie, can take some comfort in knowing that historically, more than half of those teams have gone on to win their divisions. And while 60% of teams with a share of the division lead entering June win that division, plenty do not. Only time will tell. That’s why they play the game – and, luckily, we get to follow along.