2 keys for Dodgers against D-backs in NLDS

October 7th, 2023

This story was excerpted from Juan Toribio’s Dodgers Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

LOS ANGELES -- The Dodgers aren’t strangers to playing a National League West foe in the postseason. With the Dodgers taking on the D-backs in the NLDS, which starts tonight at Dodger Stadium, it’ll be the fourth consecutive postseason that the Dodgers open up with a division opponent.

In ‘20, the Dodgers took care of the Padres in three games. The following season, the Dodgers got past the Giants in a five-game thriller between division rivals. Last October, the Dodgers got a taste of their own medicine in a way, falling to the Padres in four games in the NLDS.

With those recent experiences, the Dodgers have now been on both ends of it. They know what it takes to beat a division opponent in the postseason. They also know what it takes to take a punch and get sent home early.

“I’ll tell you if I’ve figured it out after this series,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts joked. “But I really believe we’re in a good spot. There’s an edginess. There’s still a joy with our guys. But there’s a focus, too. It’s a great, great combo.”

That combo will be put to the test against Arizona. In the regular season, the Dodgers won eight of the 13 meetings between the two sides. Early in the year, the D-backs won five of the first eight meetings as they exposed what was, at the time, the biggest weakness for the Dodgers.

With the new rules in place, teams were taking advantage of the Dodgers’ inability to stop the running game. Noah Syndergaard, who is no longer on the team after being traded for Amed Rosario, was a big problem in that department, but he wasn’t alone. Relievers Caleb Ferguson and Alex Vesia, to name a few, were also struggling with the pitch clock and slowing down runners. 

But maybe getting the D-backs early in the season was a blessing for the Dodgers. In the first half of the season, the Dodgers were among the worst in the league after allowing 104 stolen bases in 120 attempts. Since the All-Star break, the Dodgers allowed just 38 stolen bases in 51 attempts. 

“I just think we became much more equipped to manage it,” Roberts said. “The most important step is keeping guys off base, getting the first hitter of the inning out. But outside of that, you have to vary your looks and understand what they’re going to do to try to create run-scoring opportunities and manage it the best you can.”

On the pitching side, continuing to control the running game will be big for the Dodgers. But independently, the Dodgers will lean on all 12 or 13 pitchers on the roster to prevent runs against a D-backs team that was able to get to Milwaukee ace Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta, who was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half. 

Offensively, the Dodgers will have their work cut out for them. With an off day after Games 1 and 2, the D-backs could have their top two pitchers, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, pitch four of the five games of the series. The Dodgers, of course, can do the same with Clayton Kershaw and Bobby Miller.

But as good as Kelly and Gallen have been this season, the Dodgers -- and especially Dodger Stadium -- have created a house of horrors this season for both All-Stars. Kelly went 0-2 with a 3.98 ERA and averaged just five innings per start in four outings against Los Angeles this season. Gallen, who was the D-backs’ Opening Day starter, went 0-2 with a 9.90 ERA in two starts against the Dodgers. 

“When you say those two names, they’re two of the best pitchers in the game,” said Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman. “Zac is going for the Cy Young with [Padres left-hander Blake Snell], and Merrill is Merrill. He throws up 180 innings with a 3.00 ERA. You’re not going to get to the playoffs unless you have good pitching. And we’ll face two of the best here in the first couple of games.” 

There won’t be any surprises given the history between these two division rivals. The Dodgers are confident that they can take care of business this time around, but they’ll have those challenges to navigate through in this series.