It’s been one of baseball’s most reliable trends over the past four years -- Julio Rodríguez is always better in the second half than the first.
From 2022-25, the Mariners center fielder posted a .737 OPS prior to the All-Star break and a .902 OPS after it. In each of those seasons, his OPS in the second half was at least 123 points higher than the first.
So it wasn’t much of a surprise when J-Rod took more than two weeks to record his first extra-base hit of 2026. What’s happened since then, though, is eye-opening.
Rodríguez has produced 27 extra-base hits -- including 13 homers -- in his past 53 games, slugging .528 in that span. In May alone, he finished with 10 homers, 17 extra-base hits and a .590 SLG. He’s never had more homers or extra-base hits in a calendar month, and has topped that SLG only once before in any month he's logged at least 100 at-bats.
J-Rod’s highest SLG in a calendar month
Minimum 100 ABs
1. .724 in August 2023
2. .590 in May 2026
3. .587 in August 2025
4. .546 in September 2024
5. .542 in June 2022
Even with his knack for getting off to slow starts, Rodríguez is building an incredible career for himself. He’s made three All-Star teams, won two Silver Sluggers, has earned MVP votes three times and was the 2022 AL Rookie of the Year. He also became the first player to have at least 20 homers and 20 steals in each of his first four seasons and joined Alex Rodriguez and Mike Trout as the only players with at least 110 homers and 110 steals before turning 25 years old.
But we’ve long wondered what a truly elite J-Rod season might look like, one where he didn’t take so long to catch fire. This could be the year we find out.
His numbers in each of the following categories are the best he’s had through 67 team games in a season:
- Homers: 13
- Doubles: 14
- Walks: 22
- Extra-base hits: 27
- Total bases: 122
- SLG: .452
- OPS: .767
June typically has been one of J-Rod's worst months (career .699 OPS), so he'll need to get through it before we know just how different this season really is.
But at the very least, Rodríguez’s monster May has him staking out new ground heading into the summer.
All-Star voting
While Rodríguez has made three All-Star teams and appeared in the Midsummer Classic twice, his early-season struggles have made it tough for him to garner enough fan support to land a starting spot. In fact, he has never even advanced past Phase 1 of the voting.
That could change this year, especially with Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge expected to miss the All-Star Game due to a stress fracture of the first rib on his right side. Phase 1 of the voting began last week, and Rodríguez is one of the strongest AL outfield contenders.
AL MVP race
Speaking of Judge, his injury has also turned the AL MVP race on its head. The award that he’s won in three of the past four seasons is now anyone’s to claim.
Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez looks like the current favorite as a potential Triple Crown winner, and Bobby Witt Jr.’s all-around excellence puts him at the forefront of the race as well, with Nick Kurtz and Ben Rice also in the mix.
But if Rodríguez follows his usual second-half script on top of what he’s already accomplished this year, he’s likely to be in the conversation. He’s already logged three top-seven finishes in his career as it is despite having to play catch-up in all of them.
The team context may only strengthen his case with voters. While Alvarez, Witt and Kurtz are all playing for sub-.500 teams, Rodríguez has helped the Mariners rebound from a 22-26 start to take control of first place in the AL West with a 13-6 stretch. They've done that all without last year's AL MVP runner-up, Cal Raleigh, who had a .560 OPS before going on the injured list with a right oblique strain.
Rodríguez can also help his cause by cleaning up his defense, which has been uncharacteristically poor (-3 Outs Above Average) in 2026. He was one of the best defensive center fielders in the game across 2022-25 (+38 OAA), so we expect he will.
Even with that caveat, the 25-year-old has clearly laid the groundwork for the best season of his career.