The news that Tarik Skubal will undergo surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow sent shockwaves throughout the game on Monday, as the two-time American League Cy Young Award winner will be sidelined for the next two or three months.
What does that mean for the Tigers in their pursuit of a second straight AL Central title? What effect will this have on the offseason, where Skubal was expected to command a record-setting deal in free agency?
What do the Tigers do now?
Replacing one of the best pitchers in baseball -- if not the best -- is never easy, but trying to do so in early May is even more difficult.
With Skubal headed for surgery, Detroit’s rotation currently consists of Framber Valdez, Jack Flaherty and Keider Montero, with Casey Mize on the injured list and Ty Madden expected to fill Skubal’s spot for the immediate future.
Troy Melton (right elbow inflammation), who began a rehab assignment on Sunday, should be ready to return from the injured list by the end of the month. Drew Anderson could also become an option, though the Tigers may need him in the bullpen given the injury to Will Vest (right lateral forearm inflammation).
President of baseball operations Scott Harris will surely scour the trade market, though that doesn’t typically become active for at least another month. Some of the league’s underachievers could become sellers if they’re unable to turn things around, but most front offices will likely wait a while before packing it in for 2026.
“Most teams -- both buyers and sellers -- will give it until June 1 to see how the market develops,” an AL executive said.
Which starters could become available? If the Mets continue to falter, Freddy Peralta -- a free agent at the end of the season -- could be an interesting option. The same goes for Clay Holmes, who has a $12 million player option for 2027 that he will likely decline based on the way his season is trending.
If Boston ultimately becomes a seller, Sonny Gray could become trade bait come July. The Red Sox are off to a disappointing start, though even entering Monday at 13-21, Boston was only three games back in the AL Wild Card race; in fact, no team in the AL was more than 3 1/2 games out of a playoff spot with three-quarters of the season still to be played.
The Marlins could shop Sandy Alcantara this summer -- he was the most-selected player in our recent executive poll asking who would be the biggest name moved prior to the Trade Deadline -- but it would be surprising to see him traded this early. Alcantara has a $21 million club option for 2027, so he won’t come cheap.
Joe Ryan’s name figured to be a popular one on the trade market this summer, but the Twins right-hander left his start Sunday with elbow soreness. Robbie Ray is slated to become a free agent this winter, giving the Giants a potential arm to deal in July (if not earlier).
One pitcher mentioned in our executive poll who won’t be going anywhere? Skubal. Not that the Tigers were likely to trade him anyway, but given the price tag he was expected to command this winter, the possibility was going to exist until the minute the Deadline passes on Aug. 3.
What does this mean for Skubal’s free agency?
While Skubal’s injury is devastating news for the 2026 Tigers, the bigger picture may be how it will impact the lefty’s free agency this offseason. Skubal was expected to land the biggest guaranteed contract for any pitcher in history -- the current record belongs to Yoshinobu Yamamoto and his 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers -- when he becomes a free agent at the end of the year.
How much -- if any -- will this elbow injury cost the 29-year-old this winter?
“It depends on if he comes back and pitches,” a National League executive said. “And pitches effectively.”
The standard timetable for such a surgery is 2-3 months, but until the procedure actually takes place and the extent of the damage is determined, it’s difficult to predict when Skubal will be back on a mound.
“It’s all going to depend on the medical,” an AL executive said of the impact on Skubal’s free-agent situation. “Not much if it’s just a loose-body cleanup.”
Another AL executive noted that loose bodies can sometimes be a sign of ligament damage in the elbow, later leading to Tommy John surgery. As long as Skubal returns without incident, this latest injury shouldn’t be a huge factor in his free agency as long as he can come back and show he’s healthy before the end of the season.
Skubal’s case is a unique one. There is very little precedent for a top free agent -- let alone the top free agent of his class -- suffering a major injury and undergoing surgery in the months prior to hitting the open market.
Shane Bieber had posted a strong five-year run with Cleveland from 2019-23, winning the ’20 AL Cy Young Award while making two All-Star teams during that stretch. But the right-hander suffered a torn UCL in his second start of the ’24 season, ending his free-agent year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Bieber returned to the Guardians on a one-year deal for ’25, was traded to the Blue Jays last summer, then exercised his $16 million player option for this season.
Josh Donaldson, who won AL MVP honors in 2015 and was an All-Star in ’16, battled calf and shoulder issues in his ’18 walk year, forcing him to sign a one-year, $23 million contract with the Braves for the ’19 season. Donaldson posted a strong season in Atlanta, inking a four-year, $92 million deal with the Twins prior to the ’20 season.
Noah Syndergaard missed most of the two years prior to becoming a free agent, throwing only two innings in late-2021 before signing a one-year, $21 million deal with the Angels.
But no impending free agent of Skubal’s level -- not that there have been many -- has faced the situation the left-hander finds himself dealing with now.