The under-the-radar star having his best season yet

June 26th, 2023

Catchers aren't supposed to hit like Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts … but Freeman and Betts' own catcher does.

is having a superstar season at the plate for the Dodgers -- and really, he's been doing this for a while.

Smith, who can sometimes get a little lost in the shadow of his MVP-winning teammates in L.A., is rivaling them in 2023.

Smith: .291/.407/.518, .924 OPS, 148 OPS+
Freeman: .317/.397/.549, .946 OPS, 152 OPS+
Betts: .258/.354/.512, .866 OPS, 131 OPS+

It's invaluable to have that kind of production coming from the catcher position, and Smith has been doing it since he arrived in the big leagues. He's had an OPS+ over 120 in all five seasons of his career -- that means he's been over 20% better than a league average hitter every year. Smith is one of only eight MLB hitters with that level of consistency over the last five years.

OPS+ over 120 every year since 2019
Min. 100 PA each season (OPS+ in order from 2019)
Will Smith (133, 162, 127, 123, 148)
Freddie Freeman (135, 187, 136, 155, 152)
Mookie Betts (134, 147, 126, 139, 131)
Mike Trout (182, 167, 194, 176, 132)
Aaron Judge (143, 143, 149, 212, 194)
Pete Alonso (147, 122, 133, 146, 133)
Juan Soto (142, 217, 175, 148, 160)
Bo Bichette (144, 127, 121, 130, 137)

You'll notice Smith is keeping his fellow Dodgers stars company … and that he's the only catcher on that list.

In fact, only one other catcher has even had three seasons with an OPS+ over 120 since 2019. That's Smith's fellow NL All-Star finalist Sean Murphy.

Yet somehow, this would be Smith's first All-Star Game, when he's been the most consistent offensive catcher in baseball since his Major League debut. It's the right time, at least, since 2023 is shaping up to be the best full season of his career.

Smith has always been a big air-ball hitter, with a big leg kick and swing that's reminiscent of the one Justin Turner used to launch homers in Los Angeles when Smith was coming up. About a third of the balls he's hit this season have been fly balls, putting him in the top 15% of MLB, and his 37.5% career fly-ball rate is second-highest in the Majors to Mike Trout over that timespan.

Highest fly ball rate since 2019
Min. 1,000 batted balls in that timespan 

  1. Mike Trout: 37.6%
  2. Will Smith: 37.5%
  3. Brandon Belt: 36.4%
  4. Eugenio Suárez: 35.5%
  5. Rhys Hoskins: 34.8%

But this season, Smith's taken his plate discipline -- always a strength of his -- to an even higher level. He's picking out the best pitches to drive in the air, while taking his walks when he doesn't get them, and his air-power-plus-discipline combo is what's producing that OPS over .900.  

Smith's strikeout-to-walk numbers are among the best in baseball. He has a 15.4% walk rate, ranking in the 97th percentile of MLB, and a strikeout rate of just 13.8%, ranking in the 90th percentile.

With 38 walks and only 34 strikeouts in his 246 plate appearances, Smith is the rare hitter walking more than he strikes out. It's the first time in his career that his walks have outnumbered his K's, though he also came close in the shortened 2020 season, which is arguably his best in the big leagues over its smaller sample.

Qualified hitters with more BB than K, 2023
Adley Rutschman -- 50 BB, 47 K
Will Smith -- 38 BB, 34 K
José Ramírez -- 32 BB, 29 K
Luis Arraez -- 24 BB, 15 K

In that respect, too, Smith (and his elite-discipline counterpart in the AL, Rutschman) is having a season not a lot of catchers have these days. Since 2010, the only catchers to have a qualified hitting season with more walks than K's are Joe Mauer (2010 and 2012), Buster Posey (2015) and Alejandro Kirk (2022).

Those catchers who came before had terrific contact-hitting seasons, but Smith combines his discipline with power. None of those catchers reached the 20-homer mark or a .500 slugging percentage in their seasons. Smith, with 12 homers in just under half a season and his .518 slug, is on pace to reach both.

The Dodgers have something almost no other team has in Smith, and that adds another layer of value to his numbers. A player who can hit like Freddie or Mookie while also taking over behind the plate -- where Smith also has a strong throwing arm and blocking skills, by the way -- is a big competitive advantage. Putting "All-Star" next to his name would be nice, but having Will Smith is better than having an All-Star.