Raise your hand if you accurately predicted that, a month into the season, the Red Sox would be in first place with the Yankees bringing up the rear in the American League East. Keep your hand up if you saw the Rays having issues in their bullpen, the Orioles holding their own and the Blue Jays’ pitching outshining their offense.

Yes, the AL East has presented its fair share of surprises with the first month of the season nearly complete.

Some of the developments around the division are likely just short-term concerns. Tampa Bay’s bullpen will get healthy eventually. New York’s going to start hitting at some point. Toronto’s lineup is too talented to just be the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Show. But perhaps some of these surprises will become season-long storylines. In a six-month season, time will tell.

For now, let’s look at the most surprising development of the first month for each club in the AL East.

Blue Jays: The bullpen emerging as one of baseball’s best

Before the season even started, the Blue Jays got the bad news that presumed closer Kirby Yates would miss the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Julian Merryweather got a crack at the role and looked brilliant early in April, but hit the IL with an oblique strain. The same goes for Tyler Chatwood and Jordan Romano, both of whom were expected to be part of the high-leverage picture but both of whom hit the IL, as well. Instead, the Blue Jays have gotten standout performances from arms like Rafael Dolis, Tim Mayza, Ryan Borucki and David Phelps.

There have been some unexpected gems, too, like Anthony Castro, an offseason waiver claim who has started leaning on his slider more and produced fantastic results. Combine these strong performances with the return of more healthy arms as we stretch into May, and the Blue Jays could continue to exceed all expectations here. - Keegan Matheson

Orioles: Cedric Mullins is a star

Everything Cedric Mullins is doing, he’d shown in flashes before. The speed. The power. The impact defense in center. But few expected Mullins to put it all together like he has this season, hitting .356/.408/.556 and tied for the Major League lead with 32 hits entering play Wednesday. One month into the season, the Orioles' leadoff man is playing at a level akin to Mike Trout, to Ronald Acuña Jr., to some of the game’s brightest stars.

Can it continue? Even if Mullins cools, he’ll have already taken massive strides toward re-establishing himself as a key piece of the Orioles’ rebuild, especially when you consider where he was two years ago. In April 2019, Mullins was demoted after getting off to a disastrous start, eventually tumbling all the way to Double-A by season’s end. He’s spent the past two seasons burying that narrative, in part by revamping his swing prior to 2020 and abandoning switch-hitting this spring. Now he’s excelling on both sides of the ball, even hitting lefties (batting exclusively left-handed) at an elite clip.

Is it enough for the O’s to commit to Mullins as their long-term solution in center field? Or does his early success make him trade bait come July? - Joe Trezza

Rays: What happened to the run prevention machine?

The last three years, here is where the Rays ranked in the Majors in ERA during the regular season: sixth, second and third. They expected their lineup to take a step forward this year, but as ever, they are built on pitching and defense. So, it might’ve been a surprise to wake up Wednesday and see the Rays with a 4.22 ERA, the 18th-lowest mark in baseball. Entering play Wednesday, the only AL teams to allow more runs than the Rays (112) were the Rangers (114). and Angels (124)

But consider their injuries and absences: Nick Anderson (elbow), Ryan Sherriff (restricted list), Chaz Roe (shoulder), Pete Fairbanks (rotator cuff), Collin McHugh (back), Cody Reed (thumb), Chris Mazza (shoulder) and Chris Archer (forearm) not to mention the previously known injuries to Jalen Beeks, Colby Suggs, Yonny Chirinos and Oliver Drake. With all that in mind, it’s almost impressive the Rays have held their own – especially with a pretty tough early schedule.

And there are more reasons to believe things are turning around. Tyler Glasnow has been dominant. Ryan Yarbrough has improved pitching after an opener the last few times out. Michael Wacha has had some solid outings, and Rich Hill sharpened up in a 10-strikeout start on Monday. Relievers like Andrew Kittredge, Ryan Thompson, Jeffrey Springs and Hunter Strickland are stepping up in the bullpen behind Diego Castillo. And Tampa Bay is starting to roll out young arms like Josh Fleming, Brent Honeywell Jr., Luis Patiño and Shane McClanahan. - Adam Berry

Red Sox: Garrett Whitlock

Typically, a Rule 5 pick is a fringe player who might make modest contributions at best. Then there is Whitlock -- who the Red Sox deliciously claimed from the Yankees back in December and has been a force in relief.

Serving mainly as a multi-innings reliever, Whitlock entered Wednesday action with 14 strikeouts and just five hits and one walk allowed over 11 1/3 innings of five outings. He hadn’t given up a run and had a 0.53 WHIP and .128 opponents batting average.

The Red Sox are still in the process of trying to figure out how they are best served using the impressive righty, who had Tommy John surgery two seasons ago. He is a starter by trade but there are currently no openings in the rotation. It will be interesting to see if Whitlock is used in more high-leverage situations as the season progresses or if manager Alex Cora thinks he is best off bridging the gap between the starters and the late-inning crew. - Ian Browne

Yankees: Who's got the power?

Remember in Space Jam (1996) when the Monstars descended upon the NBA and stole talent from stars like Charles Barkley, Patrick Ewing and Larry Johnson? Well... that's pretty much what it has been like watching the Yankees' offense so far.

Entering play on Wednesday, the Yankees ranked 26th in the Majors in team batting average (.212) and 27th in slugging percentage (.365), and their 82 runs scored were 27th. A lineup built around hitting home runs has been kept in the ballpark, and manager Aaron Boone believes that it has been a product of several big bats trying to do too much - "Guys are trying to hit a three-run homer with no one on," as hitting coach Marcus Thames said.

They are too talented to go the entire season like this (right?), but it has been tough to watch while they seemingly attempt to borrow Michael Jordan’s Birmingham Barons slash line. - Bryan Hoch