This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
PEORIA, Ariz. -- First, a caveat about all this lineup talk at Padres camp: Until the games actually start, none of this really matters.
Sure, new manager Craig Stammen has trotted out some interesting lineups. And he’s had some interesting things to say about those interesting lineups. But shouldn’t we wait until Opening Day, when we know what the real lineup is?
On the other hand … what’s more fun than a good lineup discussion?! It’s early March! There’s not much else going on in Padres camp. (All the fun stuff is happening over at the World Baseball Classic.)
So, with that in mind, here are six thoughts I have on the Padres’ leadoff spot, which has been a major point of conversation this week:
1. On paper, Fernando Tatis Jr. is the best option. Easily. He brings most of the traits you’d want in a leadoff man -- particularly with the uptick in on-base percentage last season. If you walk him, he’s liable to steal second. But if you don’t pitch him carefully, he can hit the ball 440 feet. Tatis is not the perfect leadoff hitter. (At least not yet. He’s never quite been able to marry the power with the OBP.) But he’s the best option the Padres have.
2. You might have heard this before, but the game’s not played on paper. Tatis struggled for extended stretches last season, and when he did, those struggles were pronounced with him in the leadoff spot. Makes you wonder two things: Did Tatis feel an outsized burden weighing on him in that spot? And did the rest of the offense feel the effects of its catalyst languishing at the top? Earlier this spring, Stammen noted that he'd probably prefer to bat Tatis elsewhere. He’s also said he’s open to changing his mind, and is monitoring while Tatis bats leadoff for the Dominican Republic at the WBC. We'll see where this goes. But ...
3. There are some things to like about dropping Tatis to fourth. Look at it this way: Tatis ought to take plenty of at-bats with a runner on base in the first inning. Or, if the Padres go down 1-2-3, he’ll fill that leadoff role in the second anyway. Additionally, the No. 4 spot is the biggest RBI spot in the lineup. After Tatis’ inability to tap into his power down the stretch last season, maybe a move in the lineup signals a switch in approach. Although, Tatis has been adamant: “I don’t care where I hit,” he said. “I can still get on base; I can still hit it over the fence.”
4. I don’t hate the idea of Jackson Merrill at the top. Stammen has mostly batted Merrill second with Manny Machado third and Tatis fourth. But if those are your best hitters, why not slide them from 2-3-4 to 1-2-3? There’s a lot to be said for getting your best hitters to the plate most frequently. Merrill doesn’t quite fit the leadoff prototype, because he rarely walks. But he’s still a pesky at-bat (and I maintain there are more walks for him to tap into). Plus, Merrill is both fast and a good baserunner. It’s probably a mistake to bat him leadoff against left-handed pitching. But he owns a .342 career OBP against righties. That’ll play in the leadoff spot.
5. How about some flexibility? There was almost none of it last year. The lineup was the lineup, save for a few daily tweaks at the bottom. That was often to the Padres’ detriment. Luis Arraez, for example, shouldn’t have consistently batted so high against lefties. Tatis, perhaps, could’ve moved around more during his slumps. I have a hunch we’ll see more flexibility with Stammen than we did with Mike Shildt last season. At the very least, Stammen is extremely open to changing his leadoff hitter based on the handedness of that day’s starter.
6. If Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth are trading off at the top, you might be losing something. Yes, they’re high on-base guys who can serve as table-setters. And you’re getting a favorable matchup in the first inning by starting one or the other based on the handedness of the opposing pitcher. Here’s my issue: When the lineup turns back over in a big spot in the late innings … don’t you want Merrill there? Or Tatis? Don’t you want to go down knowing your best hitters came to the plate most frequently? I can absolutely see a world in which Cronenworth and Bogaerts (or maybe even Ramón Laureano) fit at the top. But in that world, those guys need to be hitting like All-Stars if I'm going to consider dropping Merrill, Machado and Tatis in the lineup. Hey, maybe they will be.