ATLANTA -- The Braves deserve praise for acquiring Tyler Mahle before the Trade Deadline. But not adding an additional starter could prove problematic, especially now that Martín Pérez will likely miss the postseason’s first two rounds.
Mahle’s long string of success was halted as he allowed five runs over five innings in a 7-6 loss to the Reds on Thursday night at Truist Park. The right-hander had allowed just seven earned runs over 49 1/3 innings while producing a 1.28 ERA during the previous eight starts he’d made since being acquired from the Giants on Aug. 2.
But the more discouraging starting pitching development occurred before the game, when the Braves placed Pérez on the 15-day injured list with lower back inflammation. The move was made retroactive to Monday.
“It’s business as usual in there,” manager Walt Weiss said. “We keep marching on. The way things have gone this year, somebody’s probably going to get a little bigger opportunity and make something of it.”
Weiss’ optimism has helped the National League East champion Braves persevere throughout a season marred by a plethora of pitching injuries. But there’s now reason to wonder if Atlanta will be finally doomed by the rotation depth concerns that have existed going back to the offseason.
With the postseason starting Tuesday, they now find themselves with just three experienced starting pitchers — Chris Sale, Mahle and Grant Holmes. JR Ritchie, who has a 5.66 ERA in 10 career starts, currently stands as the fourth starter on Atlanta’s depth chart.
Pérez has posted a 3.12 ERA in 26 starts for the Braves this year. He looked like a solid option to start Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series or possibly Game 1 of the NL Division Series. But back discomfort that bothered him during Sunday’s start in Houston continued to be problematic as this week progressed.
Weiss is hopeful Pérez will be pitching again in a couple of weeks. The lefty won’t be eligible to be activated until Oct. 6, which is the same date Game 3 of the NLDS is scheduled.
Pérez could only be placed on the NLDS roster if he is replacing an injured player. The player he’d replace would be ineligible for the NL Championship Series. So Pérez likely wouldn’t be part of the Braves’ pitching plans before the NLCS.
As for Bryce Elder, he has made steady progress since having bone fragments removed from his right knee earlier this month. Weiss said he didn’t know when asked if Elder could be ready for the NLDS. His answer didn’t create reason to be optimistic about the right-hander being ready before the start of the NLCS.
So what might the Braves do?
NL WCS
Dates: Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday
With this being a best-of-three format played over three consecutive days, the Braves could go with Sale in Game 1, Mahle in Game 2 and Holmes in Game 3, if necessary.
If the Braves were to sweep the series, Holmes would be available to pitch Game 1 of the NL Division Series, which would be played at Dodger Stadium. If the series goes the distance and Atlanta advances …
NLDS
Dates: Game 1: Oct. 3 Game 2: Oct. 4 Game 3: Oct. 6 Game 4: Oct. 7 Game 5: Oct. 9
Sale wouldn’t be available to start on regular rest until Game 2. The 2024 Cy Young Award winner has made just two starts on regular rest this season, and the most recent was in early April, his third start of the season. The lack of options might force him to make this start on regular rest.
First, the Braves would have to decide who would start Game 1. They could use an opener with the plan to lean on the quality depth of their bullpen. Or they could roll the dice with Ritchie.
Mahle wouldn’t be available until Game 3, and Holmes could go in Game 4. If Sale starts Game 2, he'd be on regular rest again for Game 5.
If the Braves were fortunate enough to reach the NLCS, there’s a chance Pérez and Elder would again become rotation options.
Unfortunately for the Braves, this has become business as usual this time of year. During the weeks leading up to the 2022 playoffs, Max Fried lost 15 pounds because of a virus and Spencer Strider strained his left oblique. Charlie Morton injured his middle finger and Fried developed a blister just ahead of the ‘23 postseason. Back discomfort prevented Sale from pitching in the ‘24 playoffs.
“There's been a few of those years where you feel like we went in there with one one hand tied behind our back,” Weiss said. “But we've shown that we can overcome this stuff.”