How Blue Jays can forge path to October

April 4th, 2022

DUNEDIN, Fla. -- Coming off a rebuild and two seasons as baseball’s nomads, the Blue Jays are looking forward to Opening Day 2022 as much as any team in MLB.

Toronto’s 91-71 record left the club just short of the postseason in 2021, but the Blue Jays have restocked their talent following the departures of Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien, leaving them poised for a run at October.

Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi have been added to the rotation, making it the Blue Jays’ deepest group in years, while the Matt Chapman trade solidifies the infield defense with one of the best gloves in baseball.

The season will be played on turf and grass, though, not paper. Let’s look ahead to Opening Day, where it all starts:

What needs to go right?
Health. This is the boring answer, but that’s what you get with a team as talented as the Blue Jays.

This lineup and rotation are both strong enough to absorb some regression from one or two players and still win, but any team at the top needs to keep its best players on the field. Toronto’s young core hasn’t had a problem there, but getting a full season out of George Springer in center field will go a long way.

The Blue Jays' 40-man roster depth is impressive entering the season, but the drop-off from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette or José Berríos to a replacement would be significant. A club’s health can only be controlled up to a certain point before luck takes over, but a bad bounce in that regard is the greatest threat to a Toronto team with so few holes.

Great unknown
Gabriel Moreno is the Blue Jays’ catcher of the future, but when does the future start? Toronto’s No. 1 prospect might be slow to get rolling early this season after visa issues delayed his arrival to Spring Training, but the 22-year-old is ranked as the No. 7 overall prospect by MLB Pipeline for a reason.

If all goes according to plan, Moreno will be ready for his MLB debut at some point later on in 2022. This is a different equation with a catcher, though, than an infielder or outfielder. Moreno doesn’t just need to react to plays on the field, he needs to learn a pitching staff and how to manage games behind the plate. If the Blue Jays are 55-40 and surging towards the postseason, how would they manage that transition behind the plate with the stakes so high?

Moreno is more than capable, but this will be one of the most interesting storylines of the season, especially if starter Danny Jansen is putting up numbers. This is a good problem to have for Toronto, and its catching depth will continue to be in demand at the 2022 Trade Deadline.

Team MVP will be...
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who else? It took Shohei Ohtani’s historic 2021 season to edge out Guerrero for the AL MVP Award, and the 23-year-old has spent Spring Training setting the stage for another massive season at the plate.

Guerrero hit .311 with 48 home runs, 111 RBIs and a 1.002 OPS last year, one of the best individual seasons we’ve seen from a Blue Jays hitter. Both Springer and Bichette will be factors here, but Guerrero has to be the runaway favorite.

Manager Charlie Montoyo has recently toyed with the idea of batting Guerrero No. 2 behind Springer, instead of No. 3, where he spent the majority of last season. Maybe those extra at-bats will be just enough to help Guerrero join José Bautista as the only Toronto player to hit 50 home runs in a single season.

Team Cy Young will be...
José Berríos might not blow the league away with Jacob deGrom-type numbers that would win a Cy Young Award, but his remarkable consistency should always leave him on the fringes of that voting conversation.

Few pitchers in baseball can match Berríos’ ability to give his team steady high-end innings, which is why the Blue Jays felt so comfortable giving him a seven-year, $131 million extension this past offseason. Still just 27, it’s easy to project Berríos forward as the ace of this staff for years to come, too.

Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah and Hyun Jin Ryu are all very worthy candidates here, but it’s difficult to match Berríos’ predictability. This is the best rotation the Blue Jays have fielded in years, and if they reach the postseason, that could be particularly valuable in a Game 3 or Game 4.

Bold prediction
Bichette goes 30-30-.300.

This wouldn’t require much of an improvement from Bichette’s 2021, season, when he hit 29 home runs, stole 25 bases and hit .298. Blue Jays coaches have loved what they’ve seen from the young shortstop in camp.

With Bichette’s bat speed and ability to make adjustments on the fly, there’s still some room before he hits his ceiling offensively. He’s already among the best young offensive shortstops in the game, but that speed factor is underrated after he went 25-for-26 in stolen-base attempts last season.

Bichette is capable of putting up some big counting stats across the board, and if he pairs that with some improved defensive metrics, he’s got a shot to earn some MVP votes.