Kikuchi's funk might force Blue Jays' hand

August 16th, 2022

TORONTO -- What can the Blue Jays do with ?

They need an answer. They’ve needed an answer for months now, but with the AL Wild Card race set for a photo finish, this is when patience gives way to urgency.

Monday’s 7-3 loss to the Orioles at Rogers Centre was another slow, frustrating chapter in Kikuchi’s first season with the Blue Jays. It had all the cornerstones of a Kikuchi start, too, with long innings, walks, a home run, an early exit and some flashes of potential between.

That’s what’s made this process so difficult for the Blue Jays, because Kikuchi continues to tease the ability to be a Major League starter, but those have been flickers, too often disappearing with the next breath of wind. Now, after allowing six runs (four earned) over just 3 1/3 innings, Kikuchi sits with a 5.25 ERA, clinging to a rotation spot that might already have been taken from him if it weren’t for the injury to  and the limited depth in the upper Minors.

“There are a few things that we’ve been working on, trying to figure out what’s good and what’s bad,” Kikuchi said through a club interpreter. “I feel like we’re just caught in between the ups and downs right now.”

In April and May, patience came easy. A three-year, $36 million contract tends to lengthen a leash, too. Riding a 1-5 stretch against Wild Card rivals, though, the Blue Jays need answers tomorrow, not four weeks from now. Following the loss, manager John Schneider said that “everything is on the table” and that the club will decide in the coming days.

These are the Blue Jays’ options:

Option 1: A move to the bullpen
Enter Mitch White, acquired from the Dodgers at the Trade Deadline. Consider him  2.0, and with Stripling set to return from the IL on Wednesday against the Orioles, this move would give the Blue Jays a more complete and reliable rotation.

White isn’t an ace, nor does anyone expect that. What the Blue Jays need is five or six innings that don’t suck the air out of the stadium. It’s not a daunting ask, and in two starts, White has looked solid.

How does Kikuchi fit in a bullpen role, though? He’s always been a starter, stretching back to his younger days in Japan, and unreliable pitching looks the same over two innings or five. If a move to the bullpen would allow Kikuchi to lean more heavily on his fastball and attack hitters in the zone, perhaps something clicks, but if this move was made, the Blue Jays would only be able to trust Kikuchi in mop-up roles early on.

Option 2: A six-man rotation
A six-man rotation featuring both Kikuchi and White is possible, but this structure may have made more sense earlier in the season with longer stretches of games between off-days. If one extra day between starts would have solved Kikuchi’s issues, we’d have seen that for now, but Schneider held his cards close to the vest when asked.

“There’s always a scenario for everything,” Schneider said. “Off-days play into it; performance plays into it. It’s a welcome addition to have Stripling back and I love what Mitch White has done as well. You can go a variety of different ways. We’re just going to continue to keep our options open.”

This option also leaves the Blue Jays without a legitimate bulk arm in the bullpen. There are young options like , Nate Pearson and down the stretch, but no certainties.

Option 3: Find a solution
For Kikuchi, 2023 is a new year, but are the Blue Jays confident they can find a solution in the next six weeks to salvage his ‘22 season? He’s made adjustments at a dozen points this season but none have stuck, which thins the confidence in this plan working.

As Kikuchi has adjusted, his new look has tended to last one or two starts before opposing hitters counter and we see another outing like Monday’s. Having White in the bullpen, able to bridge the gap between starters and the back end of the bullpen after short outings would be a dream scenario for the Blue Jays, but they might not have the depth to allow for that luxury.

“It’s more urgency than patience right now,” Schneider said. “The season’s getting short.”

The answer here is that there’s no obvious one. For a team with a star-studded lineup and aspirations to compete deep into October, that’s a worrying place to be.