Inbox: Best Draft prospects not currently on rankings?

For those of us who have covered the Draft, or those who have been in the scouting industry for that matter, for a long time, our body clocks haven’t quite adjusted to the Draft taking place in July. If we were still operating under the old system, we’d be doing Draft reviews and wrap-ups by now. Instead, we have a lot of extra time still before this year’s Draft kicks off on July 13. So things like the NCAA postseason and the College World Series (more on that below) can be scouted and that information can be added to final decision-making on who to take in each round.

It also gives us more time to provide Draft coverage, including our most recent mock draft, spearheaded by colleague Jim Callis. We’ll have a full MLB Pipeline contingent at the Draft Combine next week, providing coverage from there as well. So it shouldn’t surprise anyone that this week’s Pipeline Inbox is very Draft-heavy, though I did include a question about Minor Leaguers to be as inclusive as possible.

We will be expanding our Draft Top 200 out to 250 names, along with tweaking the order throughout based on the latest intel we’re getting from the scouting industry, close to the end of this month. If you’re going on straight numbers, 250 picks gets us into the eighth round.

Not everyone we rank in the 201-250 range will go in the according round, obviously, for a number of reasons. Some will go earlier – we try to reflect as close to a consensus as possible in building our list, but that’s exceedingly difficult in the Draft world, especially as it heads into the later rounds. All it takes is one team to like a guy in, say, the third round, who we have ranked lower. Happens all the time. Some will go later for the same reason. And some won’t go at all because of things like signability, something we don’t consider when constructing our rankings.

Callis and I split up the country for our Draft coverage, so I’m providing you an example from each of our “necks of the Draft,” as we like to put it, of guys who might be considered the best of our next-up group. One is a high schooler who fits into that signability question conversation and one is an injured college arm.

Blaine Bullard, OF, Klein Cain HS (Texas): Bullard is an athletic center fielder who is a plus runner and can defend up the middle. There’s a split camp about the bat, with some thinking there’s bat-to-ball skills to work with and others worrying about the swing. It sounds like there might be big price tag to sign him away from his Texas A&M commitment and it’s possible teams won’t want to meet it and he heads on to play for the Aggies. It might take second-round money to get him signed.

Payton Graham, RHP, Gonzaga: Graham was actually on our Top 100 back in December based more on projection than track record. He’d been throwing gradually harder since his start at Gonzaga, though his numbers as a reliever in 2023 and 2024 aren’t very impressive. He had a terrific fall and was sitting 95-97 mph in his first start of the spring when he blew out and had Tommy John surgery. He’s one of a few college arms who had elbow surgery who will be hard to place round-wise, but if you believe in the talent and want him to rehab with your organization, he could go in the top five rounds.

We tackled this one on this week’s MLB Pipeline Podcast, where you can also hear us talk about Roman Anthony’s callup and an interview with Dodgers prospect Josue De Paula. Generally, we don’t really see either landing in the first round at this point, though we had heard Bauer’s name a little bit at the back end of the round as the spring unfolded. For both flame-throwing prepsters, it likely will be a team with multiple picks that has more flexibility bonus-pool wise.

We have Bauer ranked much higher, at No. 37 compared to Sime Jr. at No. 91 (we’re still working on the new list, but it wouldn’t be shocking if he moves up some), and we still think that Bauer likely goes ahead of Sime Jr. in July. He feels more like a comp round or second round pick (Mr. Callis had him go No. 43 in his most recent mock), while Sime Jr. has more of a third-round vibe as of now, though he’s throwing in the Draft League and that could help boost his stock a bit. One thing that I wonder about making this more intriguing is the fact that Bauer decommitted from Virginia when coach Brian O’Connor left for Mississippi State.

One of the interesting aspects of having the Draft in July now is that all of the NCAA postseason takes place ahead of it, as opposed to it usually coming in the middle of Regional and Super Regional play. So now teams can pay close attention to what happens and how guys perform. But while it can perhaps help or hurt a little bit if a team is trying to decide on a player, it won’t have THAT much of an impact. Any player being considered, especially at the top of the Draft, will have had a ton of work put into evaluating him. A bad start or a handful of great at-bats shouldn’t move the needle too much.

To address your question directly, there isn’t anything LSU lefty Kade Anderson (No. 3) or Oregon State shortstop Aiva Arquette (No. 6), the two players in the No. 1 pick conversation who will be playing in Omaha, can do to cement them in the top spot. Will final evaluations in the College World Series come into play for the Nationals? Maybe, but it would be part of a much larger collection of information, data and evaluations.

I had to throw in a non-Draft question! And I didn’t choose this one only because Tong was a recent guest on the MLB Pipeline Podcast. I had thoughts on the first question – it’s a yes for me – but I also conferred quickly with colleague Sam Dykstra, who does our Mets Top 30 list. Much to my relief, he agreed. While Sproat has been better of late, with a 2.25 ERA over his last three starts (the last one was a six-inning shutout gem), both McLean and Tong have been missing bats at a much better rate this year overall. Sproat has a 6.5 K/9 rate this year and a 6.6 K/9 over seven Triple-A starts last year.

If you want to compare pitchers at the same level, McLean has 8.8 K/9 over six outings since he got bumped up to Triple-A earlier this year (he’s at 9.5 K/9 for the year overall). I also think there’s still ceiling to reach here since he was a two-way guy up until last year and is focusing on pitching for the first time. Tong, meanwhile, is striking out 15.1 per nine in Double-A and is nearly two years younger than McLean and closer to three years younger than Sproat.

I’m not giving up on Sproat by any stretch of the imagination. He’s still been a pro for less than two years and could very well adjust to Triple-A and be a valuable starter in the big leagues. But there’s been some regression, while the other two are ascending, so I’d put them ahead of Sproat if we were re-ranking right now.