Rox's clock ticking to produce as Draft approaches

DENVER -- The Rockies’ struggles mean Marc Gustafson, who runs the team’s MLB Draft, and scouts and officials join everyone involved to “look in the mirror every day, and analyze and tweak.” But they share in successes, as well.

Monday was the day before major Draft-oriented meetings commenced. But Gustafson, who rose to his role when Bill Schmidt became GM during the 2021 season, celebrated catcher Hunter Goodman's selection to the National League All-Star team the best way he knew.

“That was my conversation this morning with Zack Zulli, the area scout involved in the Hunter Goodman selection,” said Gustafson, Colorado's senior director of scouting activities. “That’s a neat and fun conversation, to celebrate successes, because it has been a tough year. But at the same time, our discipline, our focus, is to help build this thing to where it needs to go, where we want it to go.”

Two 100-plus loss seasons and record-threatening futility to start this season have been chastening realities for an organization that lives by a draft-and-develop mantra.

Some of the struggles have been because of an awful run of injuries to highly touted starting pitchers. Rockies No. 14 prospect Gabriel Hughes, No. 26 prospect Jackson Cox and the organization's Pitcher of the Month for June, McCade Brown, are in their true return seasons from Tommy John surgery. Emerging lefty reliever Sam Weatherly dealt with left shoulder issues. All were chosen in early rounds. Several high picks are not in the Majors or even in pro ball.

The top two rounds of the Draft have given the Rockies star-fueled lineups featuring Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, plus starting pitchers Kyle Freeland, Tyler Anderson and Jon Gray for 2017 and '18 postseason runs. But those rounds have not produced the same longevity of star power, although third baseman Ryan McMahon is a one-time All-Star and strong defender, and there are high hopes for left fielder Jordan Beck and righty starter Chase Dollander (who debuted this season but was optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque on Monday).

Recent Drafts have produced later gems – Goodman (fourth round, 2021) and center fielder Brenton Doyle (fourth, '19). There are also some later-round bullpen pieces -- closer Seth Halvorsen (seventh round, '23), Jake Bird (fifth, '18) and Zach Agnos (10th, '22).

But with massive 2022 free-agent signee Kris Bryant having minimal impact due to injury, there is more pressure to produce stars in the Draft.

So, before some bullet points on how the Rockies go about changing things in the 2025 Draft, let’s look at some basics:

• Day 1 picks: 4, 45, 74, 77
• Bonus pool allotment: $15,723,400
• Last year’s top pick: No. 1 prospect Charlie Condon, 1B, No. 3 pick (first round) -- After last year’s record-setting season at Georgia, Condon struggled with hand and wrist injuries at the start of his pro career. But since he's gotten healthy, Condon needed just 35 games with High-A Spokane to hit his way to a promotion to Double-A Hartford and a spot in the Futures Game.
• Breakout 2024 pick: Jared Thomas, OF, No. 42 pick (second round) -- In 73 games with Spokane, he showed a solid all-over-the-field hitting, the plate discipline that has become an increased emphasis in the Rockies’ evaluations and impactful speed before he advanced to Hartford at the same time as Condon.

Now, a breakdown of the Rockies' plans:

Narrowing the field
In a pool heavy on collegiate starting pitchers and middle-of-the-diamond high schoolers, Gustafson said the Rockies had 10 names for the No. 4 overall pick in December and now have “probably at about seven that we're having in-depth discussions on, and we'll whittle that down even farther throughout the course of the week.”

College or high school?
Colorado's recent Drafts have been heavy on college players. Prep first-rounders from 2020, outfielder Zac Veen and catcher Drew Romo, are smoothing out growing pains with Triple-A.

But the Rockies believe having a performance lab in Scottsdale, Ariz., and a growing emphasis on data analysis toward amateur players might help to better predict the development and injury risk of even high schoolers.

Some mock drafts link the Rox to Stillwater (Okla.) High infielder Ethan Holliday (son of former Colorado star Matt Holliday, a big-bonus seventh-rounder in 1998) and Corona (Calif.) High righty Seth Hernandez.

“We don't personally grab them and bring them here to Scottsdale, but we have the same compatibility with the technologies that are utilized throughout not only the Combine, but even prior to that, at [prospect circuit] events, and we have our hands on that data,” Gustafson said.

Swing and connect
Tall, long-armed power bats have been a Rockies habit, but the need for better contact hitters is glaring. Players like Rockies right fielder Tyler Freeman, acquired from the Guardians this spring, and Thomas from last year's Draft will be valued higher.

“If you go back a year and a half or two years, we’re taking a very close look at bat-to-ball skills, contact rate and swing-and-miss percentages,” Gustafson said.