TORONTO -- Is there a hitting prospect having a stranger start to their season than Orelvis Martinez?

The Blue Jays’ No. 4 prospect entered the weekend with nine home runs in 25 games, which looks encouraging at a glance. Martinez has just 12 hits, though. That’s two singles, a triple and nine home runs.

Forget “all or nothing” and forget “boom or bust.” Martinez is taking these concepts to another level and showing exactly why prospects can be so difficult to evaluate.

The 21-year-old is batting just .128 with a .200 on-base percentage, and in the big picture, his top-prospect shine is wearing off in a hurry. Martinez is showing more of the plate-approach issues that kept him to a .203 average last season despite launching 30 home runs as a 20-year-old facing more experienced pitching.

“He went into the offseason really determined, and he showed up in pretty good shape,” director of player development Joe Sclafani said in March. “You’ve seen him hitting balls to center, right-center and right. He’s bought in and I think he’s seeing that he doesn’t need to try to generate the power, he’s just got so much natural power. When he starts to refine that zone, guys are going to have to come to him, and he does damage when it’s in there.”

That’s the important part.

With Martinez’s incredible natural power, the home runs will always be there. If he can refine his plate approach and force pitchers to live over the plate, that’s where Martinez has the potential to be a truly special hitter. The Blue Jays were optimistic in Spring Training, but what we’ve seen since has done little to further that.

Rare tools will always earn patience, though, especially when a hitter is just 21. Martinez is the classic example of a prospect who is “one thing away.” If you combined him and No. 18 prospect Spencer Horwitz, who has an exceptional plate approach but little power in games, you might have Vladdy 2.0. Unfortunately, that technology does not exist.

At this point, Martinez is sliding down the Blue Jays’ Top 30 list, but with five home runs in three games this week, it’s not a free fall. These next four months will determine whether Martinez keeps his “top prospect” status alive, or joins the clouded middle with everyone else.

Looking through the system, here’s one prospect at each level who is looking to rebound from a tough start.

Triple-A Buffalo Bisons: UTIL Otto Lopez
This is one I’m confident betting on. Lopez has been struggling, batting just .202 with a .496 OPS entering the weekend, but he’s hit near .300 for most of his career and has a track record of producing.

The World Baseball Classic and competition for the 26th roster spot put a lot of attention on Lopez, and while it’s taken him a while to rebound, the coming weeks should be much kinder to the contact machine.

Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats: RHP Adrian Hernandez
Coming off a subpar Spring Training with a strong bullpen headed to Buffalo, Hernandez was bumped back to Double-A.

The No. 23 prospect has lost much of the momentum he had one year ago and now owns a 5.19 ERA with the Fisher Cats, including five walks and nine strikeouts over 8 2/3 innings. His changeup can be an incredible weapon, but his performance has been headed in the wrong direction.

High-A Vancouver Canadians: OF Dasan Brown
Brown’s start has been surprising, batting just .172 with a .448 OPS. The Canadian outfielder and No. 15 prospect took some encouraging strides last season, but needs to be reaching base more consistently to let his elite speed shine. He’s 8-for-9 in stolen base attempts, but that number will skyrocket with more opportunities. An exceptional defender, there’s still tremendous upside for Brown.

Single-A Dunedin Blue Jays: Irv Carter
Now ranked No. 27 in the system, Carter made his 2023 debut Friday and lasted just 1 2/3 innings, allowing four runs on three hits and three walks with a pair of strikeouts.

It’s been a frustrating start in pro ball for the 20-year-old who has all of the physical tools needed, but hasn’t quite put it together in game action yet. There’s still plenty of projection here with Carter, but the Blue Jays would love to see flickers of that in reality from time to time, even in these early days.