FanGraphs released its initial round of 2026 standings projections and playoff odds and there were plenty of interesting storylines within it.
One of those storylines is the Cubs winning 86 games and the NL Central, edging out the Brewers and their projected 83 wins. Given what each respective team has done this offseason and some of the star power the Cubs have to offer, perhaps that’s not surprising. Yet, the Brewers are -- rather notoriously -- known for outperforming their projections seemingly on an annual basis.
Just as important, though, the Cubs will need to do their part and make a leap forward to surpass the Brewers and win their first division title since the shortened 2020 season. To get to the top of the division, these are five keys that could help the Cubs make good on their projection.
1. Which PCA will the Cubs get?
There’s no denying that Pete Crow-Armstrong had a true breakout season in 2025, joining Sammy Sosa as the only Cubs with 30-30 seasons and finishing ninth in NL MVP voting thanks to his elite defense and 118 OPS+. However, it was a tale of two halves for the Cubs’ young star:
First half (95 games): .847 OPS, 25 HR, 27 SB, 4.6 fWAR
Second half (61 games): .634 OPS, 6 HR, 8 SB, 0.8 fWAR
Here’s where things get tricky: there was no notable shift in PCA’s profile in the two halves, as Travis Sawchik recently detailed. The boring answer might simply be that PCA played a little over his skis in the first half and underperformed in the second half. The numbers support that to some extent, as Crow-Armstrong had a .356 wOBA in the first half compared to a .336 expected wOBA, whereas he had a .270 wOBA in the second half compared to a .296 xwOBA.
Split the difference and you still get a player who was well above-average at the plate and provided immense value in center field and on the bases. If PCA is closer to the first-half version across a full season, though, the Cubs might have a bona fide superstar who could carry Chicago to a division title.
2. Continued development from Horton and Cabrera
A lot of Chicago’s success will likely come down to a rotation that doesn’t necessarily feature a true ace but a collection of pitchers that could produce like frontline starters with steps forward.
Cade Horton is one of those pitchers and just had an excellent rookie campaign, in which he ran a 2.67 ERA across 118 innings and finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting. There’s no denying that the young starter and former top prospect has a frontline starter upside, but there are obvious areas he needs to improve. Most ERA indicators, like FIP (3.58), expected FIP (4.27) and expected ERA (3.88), pegged him for much higher ERAs, largely stemming from a 33rd percentile strikeout rate.
Edward Cabrera, meanwhile, enters his first year with the Cubs after the club acquired him in a January trade with the Marlins. Set to turn 28 in April, Cabrera is coming off his best season in the Majors, as he set a career high with 137 2/3 innings (his first time clearing 100 innings), while boasting a 3.53 ERA and 2.2 WAR. Cabrera has an extensive injury history, but features big-time stuff and swing-and-miss ability and just shaved his walk rate to a career-best 8.3 percent clip in 2025.
If Horton and Cabrera simply repeat their 2025 seasons or even take a step forward, the Cubs’ rotation will be in a great position to claim the division.
3. Imanaga and Steele returning to previous form
Despite their different situations, we’re going to group Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele together as they’re both veteran starters that were excellent in 2024 and were either less effective or injured last year.
Let’s start with Imanaga, who was healthy last season but failed to repeat the high-level excellence he showed in his rookie 2024 season. There are several keys to an Imanaga bounceback, which revolves around getting his 2024 fastball back to help produce more whiffs and keep fewer balls out of the air. The lefty’s extreme fly ball profile and downtick in fastball velocity makes him a bit riskier, but he’s not far removed from a 2.91 ERA across 173 1/3 innings in 2024.
Steele missed most of 2025 after undergoing UCL revision surgery last April. Before that, Steele was one of baseball’s better pitchers, finishing as a top-15 qualified starter from 2022-24 by ERA (3.10) and WAR (10.4) across 427 innings. Steele threw his first mound session late last month and while he won’t be ready for Opening Day, there’s a chance he’s back in the first half. It’s fair to temper expectations as he returns from a major surgery but if Steele is close to his previous version, it’d be a huge boon to the rotation.
4. A successful bullpen turnover
The Cubs had a serious bullpen turnover this offseason, bringing in relievers like Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey and Jacob Webb, while they saw Brad Keller and Drew Pomeranz depart elsewhere in free agency. Of the 18 pitchers who made more than five relief appearances for the Cubs in 2025, only two (Daniel Palencia and Caleb Thielbar) are in Chicago’s projected Opening Day bullpen.
Bullpens are notoriously volatile and that will certainly be the case for a Chicago unit that will feature plenty of new arms.
5. Progression from young position players
The Cubs’ lineup features a relatively high floor and upside but there’s a chance for this group to take an even bigger leap. We know that the likes of Alex Bregman, Seiya Suzuki and company will produce at a high level but what about the trio of Matt Shaw, Moisés Ballesteros and Kevin Alcántara?
All three are highly regarded players that have been in Chicago’s plans for years and each still has paths to playing a big role on the 2026 club. Shaw was bumped as the everyday third baseman after the Bregman signing but he figures to get plenty of playing time in a utility role. Ballesteros might be the club’s main DH as things currently stand. And Alcántara might be next in line if one of the outfielders gets hurt.
The Cubs don’t necessarily need all three, or any, of these players to establish themselves as legit MLB players this year. But if things go awry elsewhere, the club may be counting on this group a little bit more.