Who has edge? ATL-LAD position by position

Who has edge? ATL-LAD position by position

October 3rd, 2018

After the Dodgers defeated the Braves in the 2013 National League Division Series, the franchises traveled divergent paths.
:: NLDS schedule and results ::
For Los Angeles, that year brought the first of what is now six straight division titles, including a trip to the 2017 World Series. Atlanta, on the other hand, finished below .500 in each of the following four seasons before returning to NL East supremacy this season, thanks to a rebuilding project that bore fruit earlier than many expected.
Now these clubs meet again in the NLDS, with Game 1 of the best-of-five series set for tonight at Dodger Stadium. Will the defending NL pennant winners prevail behind a deep, star-studded roster, or will the upstart Braves continue to defy expectations?
Here is a position-by-position breakdown of the matchup.
CATCHER
In the Dodgers' , and the Braves' Tyler Flowers -- who splits time with fellow veteran -- this series features two of the game's best pitch framers. Flowers also raked against left-handed pitchers this year in a small sample (.348/.511/.606), and the Dodgers seem likely to start three southpaws. But Grandal has the best offensive track record overall, having posted above-average numbers every season of his career, including in 2018 (.241/.349/.466 with 24 homers).
Small edge: Dodgers

FIRST BASE
On Opening Day, putting Freddie Freeman and in the same sentence would have seemed ridiculous. Then Muncy came out of nowhere to post MLB's fifth-highest OPS (.973), behind only , , J.D. Martinez and . The 28-year-old even finished strong (1.055 OPS from Aug. 17 on), smacking a key two-run homer in Monday's NL West tiebreaker game. With all that said, Freeman batted .309/.388/.505, has been one of MLB's best offensive players over the past six seasons, and has no problem handling lefties. His impressive career gives him the benefit of the doubt.
Tiny edge: Braves

SECOND BASE
has become an indispensable spark plug of a super-utility man for L.A., starting at every position other than pitcher and catcher and slugging 21 homers while batting .256/.336/.470. His newfound success against right-handed pitchers (.833 OPS) helped him earn more playing time. While 21-year-old faded at the plate after a hot start (.624 second-half OPS), he's a strong defender and baserunner with a .333/.369/.542 career line against lefties.
Small edge: Braves

SHORTSTOP
If anyone knows better than to underestimate Charlie Culberson, it's the Dodgers. After all, Culberson was a surprise postseason hero for the club last year, going 8-for-16 with four extra-base hits. Traded to Atlanta in the offseason, he more than capably filled a utility role in 2018 and now has a chance to step up again in October, with Dansby Swanson likely sidelined for this series due to injury. But for all of Culberson's big-game success, he's not Manny Machado. With out for the year, the Dodgers' swung a mid-July trade to land one of the game's biggest talents as he heads toward free agency.
Edge: Dodgers

THIRD BASE
Switch-hitter forced his way into the Braves' everyday lineup and has become a solid contributor for the club, batting .272/.349/.457 with 19 homers. But since joined the Dodgers in 2014, he's been one of the top 10 hitters in the Majors on a rate basis. Slowed by injuries this year, Turner was sensational down the stretch, slashing .357/.449/.618 in 53 games after returning from the DL on Aug. 10.
Edge: Dodgers

LEFT FIELD
re-established a foothold in the Dodgers' crowded outfield with a bounceback season in which he posted a .260/.338/.556 line against righties, with 24 homers. Still, he is overshadowed by Atlanta's 20-year-old phenom, A strong candidate for NL Rookie of the Year honors, Acuna sparked the Braves from the leadoff spot in the second half, when his 1.028 OPS trailed only Yelich and Turner across MLB.
Edge: Braves

CENTER FIELD
While first base has been 's primary position, his athleticism has allowed the Dodgers to use him in center field -- where advanced metrics grade him as above average -- against right-handed pitching. Still, this matchup is primarily a choice between Bellinger's game-changing power and 's game-changing defense. The latter is more slump-proof, and Inciarte's 21 outs above average this year, according to Statcast™, tied him for the MLB lead.
Tiny edge: Braves

RIGHT FIELD
This position provides a stark contrast, between the quiet steadiness of the Braves' , and the in-your-face rollercoaster ride that is the Dodgers' . The 34-year-old Markakis (.297/.366/.440) enjoyed his best season since perhaps 2010, although the Dodgers' southpaw-heavy rotation could limit him a bit. Puig, with his persistent reverse splits, crushed righties this year (.921 OPS) and enjoyed a huge final month (1.053). His talent always makes him a candidate to dominate a series.
Small edge: Dodgers

STARTING ROTATION
The Braves' 3.50 starting pitching ERA ranked fourth in the Majors, led by breakout star Mike Foltynewicz, who earned the Game 1 assignment by posting a 2.85 ERA and striking out 202 batters over 183 innings. Veteran (2.83 ERA) and Trade Deadline pickup (2.87 with Atlanta) both bolstered the rotation, with (3.94) inconsistent and (3.90) fading in the second half.
The Dodgers simply have more firepower, especially after their victory in Monday's tiebreaker allowed them to avoid the NL Wild Card Game. L.A. finished second in the Majors in rotation ERA (3.18), with Game 1 starter (1.97) ranking third among all pitchers with at least 10 starts, behind only and . The Dodgers will follow Ryu with three-time Cy Young Award winner (2.73), star rookie (2.62) and savvy veteran Rich Hill (3.66). In the final two games of the regular season, Hill and Buehler combined to allow three hits over 13 2/3 scoreless innings.
Edge: Dodgers

BULLPEN
The Dodgers do have some cause for concern, starting with the fact that closer allowed a whopping 13 home runs, including seven over his final 17 1/3 innings. L.A. also struggled somewhat to establish a consistent bridge between the starters and Jansen, but and Alex Wood joining as reinforcements from the rotation, helps considerably.
The Braves may have more to worry about following a September in which their bullpen posted MLB's fourth-highest ERA (5.05) and lowest strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.24). The mid-September return of closer from the DL helps, as he pairs with lefty in the late innings. Atlanta may need a young starting-pitching prospect, such as Touki Toussaint or , to step up in a relief role.
Small edge: Dodgers

It's also worth noting the Dodgers' overall depth. While the Braves operated with a set lineup for much of the season, L.A. didn't have any player make more than 110 starts at any one position. If Atlanta brings a lefty such as Minter out of the bullpen, or starts Newcomb later in the series, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has the luxury of deploying accomplished right-handed batters such as , , Matt Kemp, and Chris Taylor. And with so many Dodgers able to move around the field, Roberts can adjust as needed to in-game or in-series developments.
That's one more reason L.A. has the edge to advance to the NL Championship Series for the fourth time in six years.